The anti-choicers are actually pretty solid at getting enough support. I had 3 female teachers in my high school try to get a 4th female teacher fired because they were all anti-abortion and she was pro choice. When I found out the shenanigans they were pulling (which included fucking me over personally multiple times) I don't know how the fuck they weren't fired. This was 2 decades ago when abortion was actually much less of a flash point. There's a LOT of anti-choice assholes in Kansas.I actually...like it as a primary? Especially in Kansas. You get low turnout in general, especially in a non-presidential election. I think the *real* demand for pro-life policy is much lower than R's want to admit. It's one thing to be soft on it and just virtual signal away your vote to thrown down for team R.
It pulls at like 60% nationally for pro-choice and it generally tracks at a very similar rate between genders. Once you line item it and remove any other feelings from there, I'll be very curious to see how this plays out in Kansas. I think people are motivated, and at 60% that's more than all identified democrats.
I think you can really hang a hat on this for a voter motivation more than any single candidate.
Hell, lots of shitty unpopular policy gets put in in Kansas because of low turnout and them whipping up just enough right wing shitheads to get it through. See their education cuts, which were hated by basically everyone but still got through because the Republican Governor and legislature threatened to dissolve the state supreme court. So then Kansas went just Democrat enough to get one in as governor.