I don't see how this is such a big deal
Warren Buffett, generally recognized to be a pretty bright guy, wrote this in 2003:
http://www.fhsu.edu/econ/rterry/Trade%20Deficit.pdf
More important, however, is that foreign ownership of our assets will grow at about $500
billion per year at the present trade-deficit level, which means that the deficit will be
adding about one percentage point annually to foreigners' net ownership of our national
wealth.
As that ownership grows, so will the annual net investment income flowing out of
this country. That will leave us paying ever-increasing dividends and interest to the world
rather than being a net receiver of them, as in the past. We have entered the world of
negative compounding?goodbye pleasure, hello pain.
We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long sustain large, evergrowing trade deficits. At a point, so it was claimed, the spree of the consumption-happy nation would be braked by currency-rate adjustments and by the unwillingness of creditor countries to accept an endless flow of IOUs from the big spenders.
And that's the way it has indeed worked for the rest of the world, as we can see by the abrupt shutoffs of credit that many profligate nations have suffered in recent decades.
The U.S., however, enjoys special status. In effect, we can behave today as we wish
because our past financial behavior was so exemplary?and because we are so rich.
Neither our capacity nor our intention to pay is questioned, and we continue to have a
mountain of desirable assets to trade for consumables. In other words, our national credit
card allows us to charge truly breathtaking amounts. But that card's credit line is not
limitless.
....
But I believe that in the trade deficit we also have a problem that is going to test all of our
abilities to find a solution. A gently declining dollar will not provide the answer.
True, it would reduce our trade deficit to a degree, but not by enough to halt the outflow of our country's net worth and the resulting growth in our investment-income deficit.
Perhaps there are other solutions that make more sense than mine. However, wishful
thinking?and its usual companion, thumb sucking?is not among them. From what I
now see, action to halt the rapid outflow of our national wealth is called for, and ICs
seem the least painful and most certain way to get the job done.
Just keep remembering that this is not a small problem: For example, at the rate at which the rest of the world is now making net investments in the U.S., it could annually buy and sock away nearly 4% of our publicly traded stocks.
.....