A poster's statement raises a question for me about the evolution of science and

[Moonbeam]

extinction.

I do understand the university research system (its how I was employed for a year). There are a lot of great advances that science can bring us, there is no doubting that.

The subject was on the pros and cons of plastic.

If anybody has thought very deeply into the pace of scientific progress, Moore's Law, for example he or she will see a point of asymptotic rise where progress goes off the scale. Some have called that a singularity.

At the same time we face the problem of cumulative unintended consequences that are creating massive headaches and environmental destruction, the rise of anxiety, poverty, and potentially many more wars.

It seems to me there's a lot more pessimism than optimism these days.

So what do you think? Who will win the race, will we become a class four civilization or go extinct before we take off into the galactosphere.

 

[Tristicus]

Why do you question things that make you hate yourself?

 

[Moonbeam]

Why do you question things that make you hate yourself?

You don't make me hate myself and you are not a thing. I questioned you because I wanted to know what you think, if you do.

 

[woolfe9999]

extinction.



The subject was on the pros and cons of plastic.

If anybody has thought very deeply into the pace of scientific progress, Moore's Law, for example he or she will see a point of asymptotic rise where progress goes off the scale. Some have called that a singularity.

At the same time we face the problem of cumulative unintended consequences that are creating massive headaches and environmental destruction, the rise of anxiety, poverty, and potentially many more wars.

It seems to me there's a lot more pessimism than optimism these days.

So what do you think? Who will win the race, will we become a class four civilization or go extinct before we take off into the galactosphere.

Could go either way. However, if I had to guess, I'd say that technology will likely solve most current problems before it would destroy us. I read somewhere that most technologically induced catastrophies, be it global warming or even nuclear war, would likely set back mankind a matter of years or a few decades only. Longrun, technology will solve the food problem and likely cure most ailments and diseases. It won't make us happy with each other, but it may obviate the desire for aggression based on competition for resources.

If I had to guess, I'd say that 500 years from now, the typical human will work a 20 hour week, and wile away his time in hedonistic pursuits, particularly the simulated variety. I would also predict that this will be the case across cultural and national boundaries.

- wolf

 

[Lemon law]

Maybe to answer Moonbeam, the applied scientific knowledge in learning how to make new classes of things is neither good or evil. It just is learning to make new objects that could not be made before.

Sometimes the unintended consequences arise and other times it an unmitigated benefit to almost everyone.

 

[Darwin333]

I think eventually we are all going to die.

 

[woolfe9999]

I think eventually we are all going to die.

Yup, each and every one of us. Life is a story that always has a bad ending.

- wolf

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Yup, each and every one of us. Life is a story that always has a bad ending.

- wolf

Tis true.

I tend to go the other way as far as technology solving problems. The things that will be required to control population in an acceptable way, feed the hungry, get resources that we can't get now to meet an ever increasing average global standard of living, etc. are huge problems. I can't imagine how to do that. I can however see just how technology will allow individuals or a small group of reasonably bright people designing a pathogen which can be effectively spread and wipe out the majority of humanity. Thirty years, fifty tops.

There are simply more opportunities to create mayhem than progress and the ease which the scale of horror increases grows with time. Think 9/11

 

[piasabird]

Plastic is like a forerunner to a wider group of products that were offshoots of plastics like acrylics to synthetic rubber and maybe even resins. Everything from ski's to bowling balls to kidney dialisys has benefited form this area of study.

 

[woolfe9999]

Tis true.

I tend to go the other way as far as technology solving problems. The things that will be required to control population in an acceptable way, feed the hungry, get resources that we can't get now to meet an ever increasing average global standard of living, etc. are huge problems. I can't imagine how to do that. I can however see just how technology will allow individuals or a small group of reasonably bright people designing a pathogen which can be effectively spread and wipe out the majority of humanity. Thirty years, fifty tops.

There are simply more opportunities to create mayhem than progress and the ease which the scale of horror increases grows with time. Think 9/11

Fair enough, though I would point out that 150 years ago, no one could "imagine" what technology would do for humanity. We are in a state of massive prosperity at this stage in human history, particularly the industrialized world, compared to where we were in the 19th century and earlier. The average person in an industrialized society today lives the life of what would have been a wealthy person in 1850. No matter what people try to claim, this has little to do with capitalism, socialism, welfare capitalism, liberalism, conservatism, or libertarianism. It has everything to do with technology improving productivity and the quality of people's lives, and doing do so in a major way in a relatively short period of time. I wouldn't hesitate to "imagine" away too much of what technology could accomplish. I wouldn't necessarily imagine away the doomsday scenarios either. I just tend to not think about it, because it really doesn't do any good.

- wolf

 

[werepossum]

Tis true.

I tend to go the other way as far as technology solving problems. The things that will be required to control population in an acceptable way, feed the hungry, get resources that we can't get now to meet an ever increasing average global standard of living, etc. are huge problems. I can't imagine how to do that. I can however see just how technology will allow individuals or a small group of reasonably bright people designing a pathogen which can be effectively spread and wipe out the majority of humanity. Thirty years, fifty tops.

There are simply more opportunities to create mayhem than progress and the ease which the scale of horror increases grows with time. Think 9/11

I can see increasing government redistribution payments leading to less available money for space travel and associated research, so personally I don't think we'll ever get off this ball of dirt in any significant numbers. I do think though that science will eventually solve many of our major problems, as it has most of our significant problems in the past. The pace of improvements in science and technology is certainly quickening, so it's possible that we will hit a singularity, say in energy production, that will make my pessimism obsolete. Looking just at military revolutions, we see the progression: Early RMA (revolutions in military affairs) like galleys with rams or metal weapons or longbows took centuries to change the balance of force. Conversion from sail to steam took about a century too. Automatic weapons took only half a century, airplanes a quarter century, mechanization less than a decade, and nuclear weapons took only two bombs to completely revolutionize war. War is asymptomatic because the stakes are so high, but everywhere the pace of technological innovation is quickening. On the other hand, we still have people tilling the earth very much as we did thousands of years ago, so I doubt there will be any great uniformity in the level of prosperity worldwide.

Society (including morality and religion) and evolution seem to be at odds. Evolution requires a merciless culling of the unfit for the species to prosper; religion and morality require that the unfit be maintained and helped, and it is science that helps us do that. And due to our complexity, today's totally useless leech might give birth to tomorrow's super scientist, or survivor in some doomsday scenario, proving the opposition merely surface deep. As far as a singularity leading to the next age, I might reasonably see one within my lifetime, and I'm reasonably confident my grandchildren will. As far as a singularity leading to regressing an age (or more), I think the odds are very low, with the only things I can foresee as possible causes bioengineered pathogens or nanotechnology.

 

[woolfe9999]

I can see increasing government redistribution payments leading to less available money for space travel and associated research, so personally I don't think we'll ever get off this ball of dirt in any significant numbers. I do think though that science will eventually solve many of our major problems, as it has most of our significant problems in the past. The pace of improvements in science and technology is certainly quickening, so it's possible that we will hit a singularity, say in energy production, that will make my pessimism obsolete. Looking just at military revolutions, we see the progression: Early RMA (revolutions in military affairs) like galleys with rams or metal weapons or longbows took centuries to change the balance of force. Conversion from sail to steam took about a century too. Automatic weapons took only half a century, airplanes a quarter century, mechanization less than a decade, and nuclear weapons took only two bombs to completely revolutionize war. War is asymptomatic because the stakes are so high, but everywhere the pace of technological innovation is quickening. On the other hand, we still have people tilling the earth very much as we did thousands of years ago, so I doubt there will be any great uniformity in the level of prosperity worldwide.

Society (including morality and religion) and evolution seem to be at odds. Evolution requires a merciless culling of the unfit for the species to prosper; religion and morality require that the unfit be maintained and helped, and it is science that helps us do that. And due to our complexity, today's totally useless leech might give birth to tomorrow's super scientist, or survivor in some doomsday scenario, proving the opposition merely surface deep. As far as a singularity leading to the next age, I might reasonably see one within my lifetime, and I'm reasonably confident my grandchildren will. As far as a singularity leading to regressing an age (or more), I think the odds are very low, with the only things I can foresee as possible causes bioengineered pathogens or nanotechnology.

"Restribution" may become irrelevant if technology produces sufficient resources for everyone to live relatively comfortably. Once the pie becomes large enough it may not matter so much how it is sliced, so long as everyone gets at least a tiny little piece, one way or another. Otherwise, I tend to agree with most of what you said.

- wolf

 

[sandorski]

If Science Evolved and Science discovered Evolution, isn't that just a big Circular Argument?

 

[Moonbeam]

werepossum: I can see increasing government redistribution payments leading to less available money for space travel and associated research, so personally I don't think we'll ever get off this ball of dirt in any significant numbers.

M: Provided we don't have a revolution in wealth.

w: I do think though that science will eventually solve many of our major problems, as it has most of our significant problems in the past. The pace of improvements in science and technology is certainly quickening, so it's possible that we will hit a singularity, say in energy production, that will make my pessimism obsolete.

M: Quite likely, I think.

w: Looking just at military revolutions, we see the progression: Early RMA (revolutions in military affairs) like galleys with rams or metal weapons or longbows took centuries to change the balance of force. Conversion from sail to steam took about a century too. Automatic weapons took only half a century, airplanes a quarter century, mechanization less than a decade, and nuclear weapons took only two bombs to completely revolutionize war. War is asymptomatic because the stakes are so high, but everywhere the pace of technological innovation is quickening. On the other hand, we still have people tilling the earth very much as we did thousands of years ago, so I doubt there will be any great uniformity in the level of prosperity worldwide.

M: But the next military advance, as Hay pointed out, might happen in Freaktard's Mothers basement, say a self replicating nano molecular disintegrator that could turn the surface of the earth into dust.

w: Society (including morality and religion) and evolution seem to be at odds. Evolution requires a merciless culling of the unfit for the species to prosper; religion and morality require that the unfit be maintained and helped, and it is science that helps us do that. And due to our complexity, today's totally useless leech might give birth to tomorrow's super scientist, or survivor in some doomsday scenario, proving the opposition merely surface deep.

M: You forgot genetic engineering, Everybody will be beautiful and have a 200 IQ.

w: As far as a singularity leading to the next age, I might reasonably see one within my lifetime, and I'm reasonably confident my grandchildren will. As far as a singularity leading to regressing an age (or more), I think the odds are very low, with the only things I can foresee as possible causes bioengineered pathogens or nanotechnology.

M: Not sure what this means but it might happen in your lifetime.

 

[woolfe9999]

For anyone interested in futurology, this is an interesting website:

http://humanknowledge.net/Thoughts.html#Futurology

That and the rest of the website which covers other diverse topics.

- wolf

 

[monovillage]

My Grandmother was alive before the advent of automobiles, I asked her if they had to ride horses to get around. She looked surprised and said "only rich people had horses to ride"

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

Yup, each and every one of us. Life is a story that always has a bad ending.

- wolf

How does it have a bad ending? To those that are saddened by your death maybe, but for you?

If it wasn't for those who depend on me and love me i wouldn't think of it as a bad thing at all.

It's final, it's when nothing happens anymore and i think that is perfect.

Humanity will eventually be replaced and perhaps those beings will have stupid people that can't believe that we were the forefathers of them and some other beings....

 

[woolfe9999]

How does it have a bad ending? To those that are saddened by your death maybe, but for you?

If it wasn't for those who depend on me and love me i wouldn't think of it as a bad thing at all.

It's final, it's when nothing happens anymore and i think that is perfect.

Humanity will eventually be replaced and perhaps those beings will have stupid people that can't believe that we were the forefathers of them and some other beings....

It's not death that is the bad ending. It's the dying part.

- wolf

 

[Moonbeam]

How does it have a bad ending? To those that are saddened by your death maybe, but for you?

If it wasn't for those who depend on me and love me i wouldn't think of it as a bad thing at all.

It's final, it's when nothing happens anymore and i think that is perfect.

Humanity will eventually be replaced and perhaps those beings will have stupid people that can't believe that we were the forefathers of them and some other beings....

“ To be or not to be– that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And, by opposing, end them. To die, to sleep
No more – and by a sleep to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to – ‘tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream. Ay, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
Th’ oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
The pangs of disprized love, the law's delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? Who would fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.—Soft you now!
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remembered."

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

It's not death that is the bad ending. It's the dying part.

- wolf

I suspect that the dying part will go very fast for me, but sure, pain hurts but then you get morphine and you can float into eternity.

I think everyone should have morphine when they are about to die.

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

“ To be or not to be– that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And, by opposing, end them. To die, to sleep
No more – and by a sleep to say we end
The heartache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to – ‘tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream. Ay, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
Th’ oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
The pangs of disprized love, the law's delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? Who would fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.—Soft you now!
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remembered."

Ah Hamlet, i can but agree...

I have been known to quote shakespeare, but mostly to women.

mostly...

O mistress mine, where are you roaming?
O, stay and hear your true love's coming,
That can sing both high and low
Trip no further, pretty sweeting
Journeys end in lovers meeting,
Every wise man's son doth know.

 

[UberNeuman]

The undiscovered country; which we can speak of; but have no true idea of how everything plays out.... the only truth is this - we all die.

\everything dies.....

 

[IronWing]

Eventually we'll off ourselves. Maybe not during this civilization but eventually. The gravity well is too deep to overcome, we can't simply skip town. A diaspora is the solution but the resources required are more than we have.



I said, 'I always tend to assume there's an infinite amount of money out there.' 'There might as well be,' Arsibalt said, 'but most of it gets spent on pornography, sugar water, and bombs.'" - Anathem

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

The undiscovered country; which we can speak of; but have no true idea of how everything plays out.... the only truth is this - we all die.

\everything dies.....

First Jew in Valhalla... that'll be me, where the mead is flowing and the women are all incarnations of Freja...

 

[LunarRay]

Ah Hamlet, i can but agree...

I have been known to quote shakespeare, but mostly to women.

mostly...

O mistress mine, where are you roaming?
O, stay and hear your true love's coming,
That can sing both high and low
Trip no further, pretty sweeting
Journeys end in lovers meeting,
Every wise man's son doth know.

No!... No!... No!...
That malarkey is for peace mongering women wanting dingle berries!!!

One day while sitting by the communal fire place this young kids hears Moonbeam utter:
Moonbeam: O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in Brooklyn
That do no work to-day!

Hank the one armed Muslim gnome: What's he that wishes so?
My cousin Moonbeam? No, my fair cousin;
If we are mark'd to die, we are enow
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from Brooklyn.
God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, Moonbeam, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian.'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispian's day.'
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Hank the one armed Muslim gnome, JoS and Darwin,
Hayabusa and Harvey, TLC and Kylebisme-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in Brooklyn now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.

Rise you 'days' and with me come to Agincourt... er... Afghanistan...