Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Chance! Discovery just did a thing on it last and the scientests said that the pathing formulas are still undependable.
They don't yet know enough about how they form and move
Discovery Channel's extravaganza never changed the data that NOAA was using to track and predict the storm.
Storm proceded according to the computer models, and from 3 days out never varied.
The know data and math models ran true within the parameters, yeah we don't know everything,
but ignoring the known facts isn't wise. A 1% miss is still a hit.
Just like an ICBM aimed at the other side of the world, you might not hit the beige Toyota on the North side of the town,
But if you hit any part of the town - even the other side there won't be that beige Toyota to concern yourself with.
Target probabilities within the CEP are a known resultant, +/- 5% is a washout. Storm or Weapon, we know the parameters.
72 hours of watching the track dictated a pre-emptive involvement at the Federal level.
It was well understood that it was going to be beyond the scope of any Local or State capacity to handle the situation.
Pre-positioning by the State with the assets they could deploy had been done, the repeted pleas and warning to the Federal level
were dismissed and ignored, the information was not welcome at the top, so it was not worthy of action.
Crisis Managment never rises to be able to take care of a situation before it happens, it's always after the fact damage control - days late.
I see this management style enacted again and again, but this is the first time that this has been at this magnitude
at the feet of those who could have been proactive.
MBA Management styles DO NOT WORK for a government, we are dealing with human lives and not proffit margins,
where there are tax benefits for stupidity of making incompetent decisions.
It's not about Republicans or Democrats, it's not about Liberals and Conservatives.
It's about the Federal Governement doing what is is in place to do in the first place, which is to , as the Constitution aludes to:
"provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity"
Like it or not, the Feds charter is to take care of the citizen when they have problems, and to provide the care to make it happen.
This is magnitudes bigger than the 9/11 event, and will directly effect 100's of times, maybe thousands of times more people.
'Asleep at the Wheel' is not a good position to take as a defense of incompetence.
