A Bleak Outlook for Trump’s Promises to Coal Miners

[K1052]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/20/a-bleak-outlook-for-trumps-promises-to-coal-miners.html

Coal's long decline predates President Obama's arrival in the White House in 2009. The collapse of the American steel industry in late 20th century reduced demand for the metallurgical coal that is mined most prominently in Appalachia.

In addition, utilities have been slow to build new coal-fired power plants in recent decades because of air-quality concerns over the burning of the other type of coal — thermal coal — that is used for power plants and is mined across the country.

Mr. Trump campaigned to help both kinds of coal recover.

But natural gas may prove unbeatable. The hydraulic fracturing boom in shale fields that began a decade ago flooded the market with cheap natural gas that continues to erode coal's market share. As recently as early 2008, coal was the source of roughly half of the electricity generated in the United States. Now it is down to about 30 percent.

"There's just a lot of gas in this country, and that is going to hold gas prices down," said Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major oil and natural gas producer, who said he voted for Mr. Trump.

The bleak outlook for coal may explain why some of the industry's executives have been reluctant to comment on how the Trump presidency may help their business: They may be wary of raising false hopes among their workers. And many may be reluctant to repeat past industry arguments that climate change was a hoax. Instead, coal producers would rather have tax incentives to support environmental improvements for coal-fired plants, as a way to ensure coal's long-term viability even beyond a Trump administration.

"Any exuberance has to be tempered," said Richard Reavey, vice president for government and public affairs at Cloud Peak Energy, a major Western coal producer. "The view should be cautious optimism."

Beyond the declining demand for coal, there has been an even more fundamental factor behind the shift in coal mining employment, which peaked decades ago. As with those in many industries, jobs in mining have fallen victim to automation. High-tech shears can now shave coal from underground seams — work that formerly required hundreds of miners. Surface mining, which has been increasing in recent years, has also replaced many workers with heavy machinery.

As a result, there are now just over 50,000 jobs in the American coal mining industry, down from a peak of more than 250,000 in 1980.

This cuts to the core of Trumps jobs promises and how impossible it will be for him to deliver on them. Technology and market forces cannot be overcome to "bring back the jobs". When these voters wake up in four years and find their prospects the same or worse as now we'll see if he reaps the blame.

 

[KB]

Its true, coal is being replaced and barring Trump banning fracking (doubt it) there is nothing he can do. Natural gas is cleaner burning, easier/cheaper to transport, less dangerous to mine and creates no ash by-products that have to be stored and maintained for years.
I suspect Trump will save a few thousand jobs in one small town and claim he saved the whole industry, but for the most part coal workers will find themselves part of an ever growing group of "Trump Chumps", people who fell for his failed promises.

 

[vi edit]

I guess the 30 billion dollar and 4300 word plan Hillary had was too complicated for them.

 

[Caesar]

I guess the 30 billion dollar and 4300 word plan Hillary had was too complicated for them.

Why read 4,300 word plan when the other ones are much easier and catchier? "Build the wall", "Make America Great Again", "Drain the Swamp", "Bring back jobs".

 

[Bitek]

He's a long time con artist, this was always known.

But that's how he works tho right? Promise big things to desperate people and exploit their hopes.

Just give him a down payment and he'll return it 100 fold, honest.... think of it as an investment in your future. He's rich, so of course it's legit.


Now watch as Paul Ryan guts their safety net to fund massive tax cuts for Donald.

 

[PokerGuy]

Like most politicians, he makes all sorts of promises he can't actually keep. He can't change fundamental market forces that are driving coal away. He can, on the other hand, make sure that the government is not doing more to accelerate that process or help drive it along. For example, if you add new stringent regulations on output, it's going to accelerate power plants shifting over to coal.

 

[agent00f]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/20/a-bleak-outlook-for-trumps-promises-to-coal-miners.html



This cuts to the core of Trumps jobs promises and how impossible it will be for him to deliver on them. Technology and market forces cannot be overcome to "bring back the jobs". When these voters wake up in four years and find their prospects the same or worse as now we'll see if he reaps the blame.

Bannon is going to try to pay off loyal supporters with his trillion dollar handout. That's how these sort of people keep in power, just look toward various authoritarian regimes for examples.

 

[IronWing]

http://www.mining.com/chart-trump-500-billion-will-do-very-little-for-global-mining/

Another perspective on Trump's plans vs. economics.

 

[Pens1566]

It was never serious to begin with and anyone who looked at the situation reasonably for 10-15 minutes would have seen that. Coal jobs have been declining rapidly forever. No one person can change that, and maybe they shouldn't.

There is a fundamental problem when a state like WV, where ~15k jobs are coal related, the #1 issue is Coal.

 

[IronWing]

There is a fundamental problem when a state like WV, where ~15k jobs are coal related, the #1 issue is Coal.

It's an identity issue.
"I come from a coal mining family."
"Are you a miner?"
"My grandfather was."
"Does anyone in your family mine coal today?"
"No, but we're still a coal mining family."

Replace with autos, steel, timber, cattle ranching, or any other industry where jobs were lost to automation and market forces. In Arizona we have a small town near me that is always described as "the small ranching community of...". They even have a cowboy festival every year. The thing is, the town was never a ranching community. It was a railroad town where the Southern Pacific would add and take off booster engines for making the run over the mountain passes to the west. When steam was replaced by diesel the reason for the town to exist mostly went away and the population plummeted. Large scale orchards and greenhouses are moving in now so there are new opportunities there but ranching ain't one of them.

 

[Pens1566]

It's an identity issue.
"I come from a coal mining family."
"Are you a miner?"
"My grandfather was."
"Does anyone in your family mine coal today?"
"No, but we're still a coal mining family."

Replace with autos, steel, timber, cattle ranching, or any other industry where jobs were lost to automation and market forces. In Arizona we have a small town near me that is always described as "the small ranching community of...". They even have a cowboy festival every year. The thing is, the town was never a ranching community. It was a railroad town where the Southern Pacific would add and take off booster engines for making the run over the mountain passes to the west. When steam was replaced by diesel the reason for the town to exist mostly went away and the population plummeted. Large scale orchards and greenhouses are moving in now so there are new opportunities there but ranching ain't one of them.

I'd argue it's an education issue, at it's core.

 

[kage69]

Poor gullible West Virginia.

I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

 

[kage69]

Natural gas is cleaner burning, easier/cheaper to transport, less dangerous to mine and creates no ash by-products that have to be stored and maintained for years.
.

Trump voters, just like the Bush voters before them, are only confused by facts like these I'm afraid.

 

[Jhhnn]

It was never serious to begin with and anyone who looked at the situation reasonably for 10-15 minutes would have seen that. Coal jobs have been declining rapidly forever. No one person can change that, and maybe they shouldn't.

There is a fundamental problem when a state like WV, where ~15k jobs are coal related, the #1 issue is Coal.

When coal was in its prime so was WV. It's an idealized yearning for the yewstabees. You know, back when men were men & died young from black lung.

 

[Jhhnn]

WV is an interesting case, for sure. The rest of America eased the situation for decades, largely through the efforts of Robert Byrd-

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/death-robert-byrd-speall-end-pork-barrel-politics/story?id=11034377

He delivered something, at least. With him gone & Repubs controlling the purse strings, all they delivered was promises of more coal mining as if that would really work. They pandered to long standing issues of racism & resentment, led the people to believing in fantasy. Trump merely follows that tradition.

Clinton offered more than that, but, well, you can't trust Hillary, right?

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/brie.../clinton-plan-to-revitalize-coal-communities/

 

[chowderhead]

When coal was in its prime so was WV. It's an idealized yearning for the yewstabees. You know, back when men were men & died young from black lung.

Trump promised to do away with those pesky regulations. If there are any coal mining jobs created that pay sub-decent wages, at least there will be jobs for hospitals and doctors to treat these black lung cases.

 

[Jaskalas]

Clinton offered more than that, but, well, you can't trust Hillary, right?

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/brie.../clinton-plan-to-revitalize-coal-communities/

Maybe she should have spoken of that instead of calling them deplorable.
When there's a signaling and messaging problem in politics, you going to blame the sender or receiver?

 

[Pens1566]

Maybe she should have spoken of that instead of calling them deplorable.
When there's a signaling and messaging problem in politics, you going to blame the sender or receiver?

I don't remember seeing "coal miners" in the list of what she considered deplorables. Maybe some self-identification there?

 

[Commodus]

Like most politicians, he makes all sorts of promises he can't actually keep. He can't change fundamental market forces that are driving coal away. He can, on the other hand, make sure that the government is not doing more to accelerate that process or help drive it along. For example, if you add new stringent regulations on output, it's going to accelerate power plants shifting over to coal.

But accelerating that process is what every politician on Earth should be doing. It's just a question of making sure there are jobs waiting on the other side (in renewable energy ideally, but even natural gas) when the coal plants close.

 

[Jaskalas]

I don't remember seeing "coal miners" in the list of what she considered deplorables. Maybe some self-identification there?

Mark one down for hostile disregard for the receiver.
Being divisive against key votes in key states is a recipe for disaster.

Trump swindled them because he stood as the only game in town. Certainly not that job killing (NAFTA) Clinton.

 

[Sonikku]

The writing is on the wall on a lot of his promises. And many more promises he's walking back on. But at the same time any concern is ridiculed. "He's not even president yet!". I fear that instead of being objective that conservatives are going to be explaining away almost everything Trump does no matter how nonsensical. Even when there is legitimate concern to be made, half the country will not believe it as any reporting from the so called liberal mainstream media on it will seem to them like they're just out to get him.

 

[IronWing]

Trump promised to do away with those pesky regulations. If there are any coal mining jobs created that pay sub-decent wages, at least there will be jobs for hospitals and doctors to treat these black lung cases.

A lot coal mining jobs that still exist pay really well. Running modern mining machinery in the big mines is a high skill, high pay job. Contract driving trucks for small, marginal producers not so much.

 

[Udgnim]

remove solar credits / subsidies

heavily regulate & tax natural gas

create coal credits / subsidies

promote Trump Clean Coal as an energy source

done

 

[IronWing]

remove solar credits / subsidies

heavily regulate & tax natural gas

create coal credits / subsidies

promote Trump Clean Coal as an energy source

done

Clean coal is just a decade away, and always will be.

 

[trenchfoot]

Poor gullible West Virginia.

I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

IMO, it's a matter of tradition, bolstered and perpetuated by geological and self-induced isolation, both factors of which supports and sustains the other.

It seems to me that a lot of folks there, as well as in many other rural isolated areas of the nation, like things just the way they are because it gives them stability and a sense that their futures are predictable and in their control. As far as I'm concerned, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that as we all like to feel safe and secure, socially and economically. The difference again, is isolationism. It promotes statism/micro statism. In contrast, we have those big population centers with diverse communities where constant exposure to different cultures creates an atmosphere of constant change as the assimilation and adaptive processes are in constant motion. Therefore, change, to a certain extent, is much more palatable and easier to embrace. Maps showing voting trends clearly support this.

As we all know, the Repubs are masters at exploiting these fears of change and loss of control, and with Trump fanning the flames of fear and hate with a yuuuge flame thrower all during his election campaign, well, it was easy for him to provide the salve (in the form of a highly concentrated dose of snake oil placebo) for the very fears he was histrionically frightening his hypnotized audiences with.

Increasingly so, that salve is turning sour and has already exposed much of what was empty promises in the form of bait to lure his willfully ignorant catch in with. The apologists are out in force and attempting to forestall/snuff out these small outbreaks of fact checking and alarm bell ringing in order to prevent these small ripples turning into an unstoppable tsunami of proof driven allegations that will sink Trump's apparent emerging efforts to militarize the population just like Bush and Cheney did.

I'm still being hopeful that Trump proves me wrong, but the trend line he's on is making me feel I'm right.