A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened.

[borosp1]

Talk about market manipulation... Dow went up 829 pts this Friday because they said the unemployment rate was 13.3% but the "actual" number is 16.3%.. Trump used the fake unemployment number to pat himself on the back and suggest George Floyd is happy about US jobs numbers: 'It's a great day for him' --- from Trumps rambling speech on Friday 6/5.

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.
The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/

 

[darkswordsman17]

It was wrong in March and April as well:

This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.

I'm guessing a lot of the gains were from employers re-hiring their laid off/furloughed workers too. Hopefully it'll be lasting employment but we'll see. I'll say that if there's one area that I'd have no problem with companies being "irrational" (i.e. not profit driven above all else) it would be buoying their employment numbers. So hire lots and hopefully it boost their stock prices.

 

[eelw]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were fudged his entire term.

And it’s not like the people are really back to work. It’s the PPP kicking in where employees were willing to “work” before the business actually reopens. And if minimum wage workers were willing to go back instead of making more on unemployment with the covid bonus, the number would have been better.

 

[ivwshane]

The article goes into why the numbers are off, it has zero to do with trump or any manipulation of the numbers.

 

[Wreckem]

The article goes into why the numbers are off, it has zero to do with trump or any manipulation of the numbers.

Trump knew unemployment was 16.3% and not 13.3% when he has his press conference. He didn’t manipulate it but he certainly ran with a false narrative.

 

[ivwshane]

Trump knew unemployment was 16.3% and not 13.3% when he has his press conference. He didn’t manipulate it but he certainly ran with a false narrative.

If you aren’t fact checking everything trump says then you don’t really care that much about the facts.

The fact that trump lied should surprise no one but let’s not help him destroy yet another trusted institution

 

[fskimospy]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were fudged his entire term.

And it’s not like the people are really back to work. It’s the PPP kicking in where employees were willing to “work” before the business actually reopens. And if minimum wage workers were willing to go back instead of making more on unemployment with the covid bonus, the number would have been better.

There is no evidence of any manipulation of the numbers, if anything it’s BLS trying to be upfront with things.

The entirety of Obama’s term conservatives were BLS truthers trying to say the numbers were manipulated despite no evidence of this. Let’s not be as bad as them.

 

[uallas5]

Remember when Trump kept saying that Obama's unemployment were fake?

Pepperidge Farms remembers.

 

[Meghan54]

There is no evidence of any manipulation of the numbers, if anything it’s BLS trying to be upfront with things.

The entirety of Obama’s term conservatives were BLS truthers trying to say the numbers were manipulated despite no evidence of this. Let’s not be as bad as them.

Well, I agree there's probably no manipulation of the numbers....but you'd have thought the disclaimer would have been more towards the front page, instead of being buried on the very last page. That's where the sleight of hand happened, imho.

 

[Jhhnn]

If you aren’t fact checking everything trump says then you don’t really care that much about the facts.

I just assume he's lying. It's a safe bet.

 

[cytg111]

And Trump knew about this error before giving the speech? Why am I asking.

 

[Wreckem]

And Trump knew about this error before giving the speech? Why am I asking.

The error itself was documented in the report itself...

 

[blackangst1]

The article goes into why the numbers are off, it has zero to do with trump or any manipulation of the numbers.

Right. And either way, even with the added 3%, it is still better than was predicted.

Per the article:
But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.

 

[hal2kilo]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were fudged his entire term.

And it’s not like the people are really back to work. It’s the PPP kicking in where employees were willing to “work” before the business actually reopens. And if minimum wage workers were willing to go back instead of making more on unemployment with the covid bonus, the number would have been better.

Usual Republican projection say when Dems are in office they cheat the numbers. So guess what the projectionist did.

 

[Jhhnn]

Heh. The whole discussion about the numbers is like guys sent to Hell quibbling over whether the lake of fire is boiling or merely simmering...