85% of job loss in manufacturing due to automation; only 13% due to trade

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The problem is unsustainable population growth. Remove all programs that incentivize childbirth, enforce added taxes for those that have more than, say, 2 children due to the strain they place on the economy, free birth control everywhere, promotion of free abortions everywhere, and limit immigration to those educated and skilled. Stop excess labor. At the same time, kill the idea that education is supposed to be about "personal fulfillment" or whatever the hell people say. Everyone should learn basics of engineering and all hard sciences before graduating high school, if not earlier. Students that struggle with that should be quickly identified and put into electrician's, plumber's, etc trades, jobs which aren't likely to be replaced by automation at least for the next 100 years or so.

Please. US population growth is .7%/yr with immigration & so-called anchor babies.

All of the construction trades- plumbing, electrical, HVAC, concrete, carpentry, roofing, drywall & so forth are heavily dependent on new construction.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,042
49,838
136
I'm in financial services, specifically credit underwriting and risk analysis.

IMO the 'skills gap' is by far the biggest problem in the US job market right now. I'm interviewing college graduates who can barely read and write or do basic arithmetic, and have no concept of logic and critical thinking. I don't know what they teach the kids these days, but it certainly isn't how to think or use their brains.

Sure, but there aren't millions of unfilled jobs in the financial services industry. I'm sure there are some specific industries that are genuinely facing a skills gap but I just don't see evidence for this in the economic data. If we really had this large skill gap we should see a sharp divergence as these industries have wages go way up while others stagnate. The most recent data I've seen (which to be fair is somewhat old) hasn't shown that. Financial industry compensation has gone up, but pretty modestly.
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
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The problem is unsustainable population growth. Remove all programs that incentivize childbirth, enforce added taxes for those that have more than, say, 2 children due to the strain they place on the economy, free birth control everywhere, promotion of free abortions everywhere, and limit immigration to those educated and skilled. Stop excess labor.

Capitalism as it exists today is predicated on growth. Frankly I have doubts the people you're going to have to take that up with will care about your opinion.

At the same time, kill the idea that education is supposed to be about "personal fulfillment" or whatever the hell people say. Everyone should learn basics of engineering and all hard sciences before graduating high school, if not earlier. Students that struggle with that should be quickly identified and put into electrician's, plumber's, etc trades, jobs which aren't likely to be replaced by automation at least for the next 100 years or so.

Before you go on any more about engineering master race, be aware that the aforementioned people at the top seem to get by rather well without much technical know-how.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,420
14,322
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Here's a good article on the subject: http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-skills-gap-widening-2016-5

I'm sure I can find plenty more. I agree that outsourcing and automation have taken many jobs, but the bigger question IMO is "which jobs?" And invariably the answers seem to be either low value add jobs (outsourcing) or low skills jobs (automation).
But if you can bring some value to the table, American employers still want you.
 
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agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
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Here's a good article on the subject: http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-skills-gap-widening-2016-5

I'm sure I can find plenty more. I agree that outsourcing and automation have taken many jobs, but the bigger question IMO is "which jobs?" And invariably the answers seem to be either low value add jobs (outsourcing) or low skills jobs (automation).
But if you can bring some value to the table, American employers still want you.

The best & brightest are always going to have greater value by definition, but they're also a minority by definition. I often see people presuming themselves above whatever line when they laugh at the blue collars then lower level whites losing their jobs, when each tier was just laughing at the one below until it wasn't funny anymore, and they don't seem to realize where this is going.

Burgerboy is right about something though, and that's less people fighting over jobs is beneficial to that class of people. This was the temporary situation post-war, but the ride is over for the prols.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,420
14,322
136
The best & brightest are always going to have greater value by definition, but they're also a minority by definition. I often see people presuming themselves above whatever line when they laugh at the blue collars then lower level whites losing their jobs, when each tier was just laughing at the one below until it wasn't funny anymore, and they don't seem to realize where this is going.

Burgerboy is right about something though, and that's less people fighting over jobs is beneficial to that class of people. This was the temporary situation post-war, but the ride is over for the prols.

I am not trying to be elitist. If anything, my point is that the same people who pound their chests about how much they love capitalism tend to be the first ones complaining to the government when their skills are insufficiently marketable.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Here's a good article on the subject: http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-skills-gap-widening-2016-5

I'm sure I can find plenty more. I agree that outsourcing and automation have taken many jobs, but the bigger question IMO is "which jobs?" And invariably the answers seem to be either low value add jobs (outsourcing) or low skills jobs (automation).
But if you can bring some value to the table, American employers still want you.

That's not really true at all. It's middle skill jobs that have taken a beating-

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/beyond-bls/pdf/stuck-in-the-middle-job-market-polarization.pdf

Beyond that, many employers have just upped the qualifications from high school education to college degree simply because they can, not because having a degree makes any real difference in job performance.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
Please. US population growth is .7%/yr with immigration & so-called anchor babies.

All of the construction trades- plumbing, electrical, HVAC, concrete, carpentry, roofing, drywall & so forth are heavily dependent on new construction.

.7% compound growth is not insignificant. We'll be past 400 million within a few generations at that rate.

I haven't looked into a breakdown of what percent of trades go into new construction vs maintenance so maybe you're right there, I'll have to check for info on that. Regardless, automation is still full of mechanical parts and buildings that need to be maintained and fixed regularly, and construction of new factories will only increase with growing automation, so I doubt a decline in construction of new housing will significantly offset construction in other areas.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,042
49,838
136
Here's a good article on the subject: http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-skills-gap-widening-2016-5

I'm sure I can find plenty more. I agree that outsourcing and automation have taken many jobs, but the bigger question IMO is "which jobs?" And invariably the answers seem to be either low value add jobs (outsourcing) or low skills jobs (automation).
But if you can bring some value to the table, American employers still want you.

The argument that article is making doesn't make any sense to me:

And the more we see a gap between openings and hires while wage growth remains tepid, the clearer it becomes that the skills gap in the labor market is not being satisfyingly resolved.

If there's a skills gap then wage growth shouldn't be tepid because businesses should be competing really hard for those skilled workers with higher wages. Low wage growth is evidence against a skills gap, not evidence for it.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,420
14,322
136
The argument that article is making doesn't make any sense to me:



If there's a skills gap then wage growth shouldn't be tepid because businesses should be competing really hard for those skilled workers with higher wages. Low wage growth is evidence against a skills gap, not evidence for it.
Unfortunately, many industries have seen a reduction in the number of employers, which I believe plays a role there.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
Capitalism as it exists today is predicated on growth. Frankly I have doubts the people you're going to have to take that up with will care about your opinion.

Before you go on any more about engineering master race, be aware that the aforementioned people at the top seem to get by rather well without much technical know-how.

I agree that our society is largely based on population-based Ponzi schemes, which is why it's better to curtail population growth now than later. Population cannot grow exponentially forever without things collapsing eventually. In practice, thankfully people are smarter than usually given credit for, which is why in many first-world nations you see populations declining naturally on their own. Japan has negative birth rates and their younger working population is slaving in order to support their retired population. They had the option of continuing to have more children and creating an even larger retired population down the line, but instead they're taking the pain now. America isn't responding as quickly, imo largely due to unrealistic ideas about the 1960s being sustainable forever if only we had the right trade and social policies, combined with liberal immigration laws and religious dogma regarding birth control. I think it's better to bite the bullet now.

The thing about the "good ol boys" club is something of a meme. Plenty of CEOs have technical degrees in the fields they work in, and we have more self-made tech billionaires now than ever before. The thing is that CEOs don't exist to create jobs; they exist to sell products and make money for their companies, and the big money jobs are shifting away from manufacturing, and in some cases away from physical products entirely.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,420
14,322
136
That's not really true at all. It's middle skill jobs that have taken a beating-

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/beyond-bls/pdf/stuck-in-the-middle-job-market-polarization.pdf

Beyond that, many employers have just upped the qualifications from high school education to college degree simply because they can, not because having a degree makes any real difference in job performance.
The lowest skills jobs tend to be in service or construction industries and thus not practicable for outsourcing or automation.
 

child of wonder

Diamond Member
Aug 31, 2006
8,307
175
106
No surprise that automation is replacing so many jobs. As I looked for some celery at Target last night, I found it in 4 places: in the organic squash, organic zucchini, organic cucumber, and, finally, the celery sections of the shelf. #drivefor$15minwage
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,242
86
I agree that our society is largely based on population-based Ponzi schemes, which is why it's better to curtail population growth now than later. Population cannot grow exponentially forever without things collapsing eventually. In practice, thankfully people are smarter than usually given credit for, which is why in many first-world nations you see populations declining naturally on their own. Japan has negative birth rates and their younger working population is slaving in order to support their retired population. They had the option of continuing to have more children and creating an even larger retired population down the line, but instead they're taking the pain now. America isn't responding as quickly, imo largely due to unrealistic ideas about the 1960s being sustainable forever if only we had the right trade and social policies, combined with liberal immigration laws and religious dogma regarding birth control. I think it's better to bite the bullet now.

Those first world populations aren't "being smart", but rather reflects individual self-interest. 1. you don't need a lot of kids as backup when most will survive to adulthood, and you don't need many at all if there's a safety net in old age. 2. women with better things to do postpone kids. 3. first world life make many things more pleasant, while child-rearing remains a relative hassle.

The thing about the "good ol boys" club is something of a meme. Plenty of CEOs have technical degrees in the fields they work in, and we have more self-made tech billionaires now than ever before. The thing is that CEOs don't exist to create jobs; they exist to sell products and make money for their companies, and the big money jobs are shifting away from manufacturing, and in some cases away from physical products entirely.

The exec/mgmt classes generally aren't terribly technically astute, and they don't need to be when there's plenty of self-important nerds available for hire. The point here is that STEM isn't exactly top of the pyramid, so if the idea is to produce the next class of intl elite, don't waste their time on wage slave material.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
Those first world populations aren't "being smart", but rather reflects individual self-interest. 1. you don't need a lot of kids as backup when most will survive to adulthood, and you don't need many at all if there's a safety net in old age. 2. women with better things to do postpone kids. 3. first world life make many things more pleasant, while child-rearing remains a relative hassle.

The exec/mgmt classes generally aren't terribly technically astute, and they don't need to be when there's plenty of self-important nerds available for hire. The point here is that STEM isn't exactly top of the pyramid, so if the idea is to produce the next class of intl elite, don't waste their time on wage slave material.

Children have been surviving into adulthood at a high rate for nearly 100 years; the baby-boomers obviously did, for example. Didn't stop the WW2 generation from having a ton of kids, they did it because it was a cultural custom and because the economy was booming, allowing them to support large families with ease. Europeans and Japanese cut down on children largely because it's difficult to afford them when the majority of your paycheck disappears between taxes, housing, and food. I agree that cultural attitudes involving feminism and the "40 is the new 20" attitude are also at play, but a significant part of the hassle in the first place that fosters those attitudes is increasing cost of living and child-rearing.

I'm not saying STEM will make everyone a billionaire; I'm just saying it will make people at least somewhat productive and valuable in a future where basic manufacturing is mostly performed by machines.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,687
502
126
Yeah, I'll take my research from a right wing think tank like I'll get my news from Faux News....


__________________
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,242
86
Children have been surviving into adulthood at a high rate for nearly 100 years; the baby-boomers obviously did, for example. Didn't stop the WW2 generation from having a ton of kids, they did it because it was a cultural custom and because the economy was booming, allowing them to support large families with ease. Europeans and Japanese cut down on children largely because it's difficult to afford them when the majority of your paycheck disappears between taxes, housing, and food. I agree that cultural attitudes involving feminism and the "40 is the new 20" attitude are also at play, but a significant part of the hassle in the first place that fosters those attitudes is increasing cost of living and child-rearing.

Keep reading past point #1, it's meant as a collection of necessary & contributing reasons. Most women back then had little better to do after high school. First worlders of all people can most easily afford more kids, as anyone who's ever complained about welfare queens can attest to. It's rather more economic stratification which motivates parents with the means to put their eggs into one (or at least fewer) basket.

I'm not saying STEM will make everyone a billionaire; I'm just saying it will make people at least somewhat productive and valuable in a future where basic manufacturing is mostly performed by machines.

See my reply above to Vic. The coding jobs of today are the various jobs of yesterday which some chinese guy was willing to do for less; I hear they're pretty good at math. If your point was about what's not getting replaced by machines, the liberal arts or more specifically communication/social/business skills seem more the ticket.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
The lowest skills jobs tend to be in service or construction industries and thus not practicable for outsourcing or automation.
Perhaps my Sarcasm meter is broken, but in case you are being serious.. Those are exactly the jobs most in danger of automation. The service industry is starting to die. Table side ordering and pay kiosks are already making restaurants cut down on the hours of waitstaff. That trend will continue. McDonalds and other fast food chains are working on automating their places. And of all the jobs probable only farming has been more affected by automation than construction. A backhoe can do in a few minutes what it used to take dozens of men hours to do, and we are always improving on those technologies. Railroads can now flattened, built up, and tracks laid by a machine that only needs one operator.
 

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,414
1,574
126
McDonalds and other fast food chains are working on automating their places.

The employees only need to worry when their dollar/hour cost is higher than that of a machine. Running (and maintaining) these machines aint free.

IOW, push for $15/hr min wage = push for automation technology
 
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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
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The employees only need to worry when their dollar/hour cost is higher than that of a machine. Running (and maintaining) these machines aint free.

IOW, push for $15/hr min wage = push for automation technology

The price for buying and running those machines will just keep going down where the very best they can hope for is that labor costs will stay level. Or to look at it another way, the cost of purchasing, installing, and running the machines can be amortizatized while the cost of labor can't.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,420
14,322
136
Perhaps my Sarcasm meter is broken, but in case you are being serious.. Those are exactly the jobs most in danger of automation. The service industry is starting to die. Table side ordering and pay kiosks are already making restaurants cut down on the hours of waitstaff. That trend will continue. McDonalds and other fast food chains are working on automating their places. And of all the jobs probable only farming has been more affected by automation than construction. A backhoe can do in a few minutes what it used to take dozens of men hours to do, and we are always improving on those technologies. Railroads can now flattened, built up, and tracks laid by a machine that only needs one operator.
I should have added "... yet." to my earlier post. Those low wage jobs are already under the crest of the tsunami, so to speak, and my point earlier was that you need to stay above. IMO that's just reality. Because technology and globalization can't be stopped. A lot of people seem to think it's a choice and it's not. Nationalism and protectionist trade policies will only destabilize the already-unstable world.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
I should have added "... yet." to my earlier post. Those low wage jobs are already under the crest of the tsunami, so to speak, and my point earlier was that you need to stay above. IMO that's just reality. Because technology and globalization can't be stopped. A lot of people seem to think it's a choice and it's not. Nationalism and protectionist trade policies will only destabilize the already-unstable world.

I think a certain amount of constructive nationalism is necessary. We can't allow multinational corporatism to be ascendant over the Government of the People. We need to better harness it to our interests as a people, a society, the greatest civilization ever created.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
I don't know if you guys have seen this video on automation and jobs. It's a very interesting video. It's called "Humans Need Not Apply."

 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,238
136
No, but they like to eat, have shelter, and a few luxuries. Few work because they want to, and none work low level jobs for fun. Your argument is the modern equivalent of 'let them eat cake'.

I would say that about yours. Robots are saving American manufacturing. Consumers are making very clear purchasing choices based largely on price. You can't have manufacturing done here if it's porked up with unnecessary labor and other costs.

1. Not only do the shop floor jobs go, but so do the mechanics, engineers, electricians, HVAC, raw material suppliers, logistics ppl, everything.

2. Why is it manufacturer's responsibility to create make work programs? What responsibilities do you take on? There are plenty of low skill jobs that can't be automated. Why don't you hire more cleaners, cooks, maids for your house? Drive to work? Why not hire a driver?

Why don't people do this? Because it's expensive. So what makes you think it's not also expensive for manufacturers to do the same? The salaries only get paid by the sales price, and the customer clearly speaks everyday that they are unwilling to pay for this.

All this complaining is a responsibility dodge.