it depends on what you're playing. when you look at anand's review you'll see a very linear dropoff until you go up to 2560x1600. even at 1920x1200 the 3850 produces very playable framerates, even in (gasp) crysis. I would be very interested to see how a 3850 at 3870 speeds compared to the 3870 at all resolutions. If 8800gt 256 scales this well then 3870 is going to get VERY cheap VERY soon.
edit, actually, at least from looking at anand's review, the 3850 appears to scale nearly as well as 3870. are these cards just not vram limited? if they aren't then 3850 is going to be next great thing...wait, it already is, for the next couple of weeks at least...