7800 gtx 512 Droping prices?

redbox

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2005
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Was I dreaming or wasn't it Nvidia's claim that the reason the 512 was so expensive was because you pay for having the best performance out there? Now that Ati has toped the 512 and is now cheaper, would it be fair to expect them to drop the current skyscraper price of the 512 to compete?

Just wondering, and please don't make this a flame post. I have an eVGA 7800gt and all i am trying to do is plan my next upgrade (still under the step up) if they drop the price I will spring for the 512, other wise i will just get another 7800gt and enjoy having 6 months of step up. By then the g71 should be out and i can step up to that and sell the other 7800gt.
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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I'll be called an ATI fanboy for this but here's my 2 cents. If you want an affordable 7800GTX 512MB you'll have to wait for G71. G71 is essentially just going to be an affordable 7800GTX 512MB (at even higher clock speeds) because it will be a 90nm die shrink allowing these high clocks at good yields. Cores for the current cards are low-yield cherry-picked, making them expensive and in short supply.
 

nitromullet

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2004
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I imagine if anything, they will quietly discontinue the 512... Stop making them, but don't anounce it, and let the supply dry up. There really is no reason for them to continue to push this card. I don't think they would sell a whole lot of these, unless they drop the price by quite a lot. IMO, they should let the GTX and GT fill the mid-higher end segment, and put their efforts into G71 for the high end.

...I think step-up is only 3 months... Unless eVGA changed it.
 

nitromullet

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2004
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
I'll be called an ATI fanboy for this but here's my 2 cents. If you want an affordable 7800GTX 512MB you'll have to wait for G71. G71 is essentially just going to be an affordable 7800GTX 512MB (at even higher clock speeds) because it will be a 90nm die shrink allowing these high clocks at good yields. Cores for the current cards are low-yield cherry-picked, making them expensive and in short supply.

Dude, we'd call you an ATI fanboy for all the other stuff you've said too...

edit: but you actually make a decent point...
 

Ronin

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Mar 3, 2001
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
I'll be called an ATI fanboy for this but here's my 2 cents. If you want an affordable 7800GTX 512MB you'll have to wait for G71. G71 is essentially just going to be an affordable 7800GTX 512MB (at even higher clock speeds) because it will be a 90nm die shrink allowing these high clocks at good yields. Cores for the current cards are low-yield cherry-picked, making them expensive and in short supply.

That's not a fanboi post. That's well thought out and mostly accurate (I'm not going to start an argument about it).

Rare gems from M0RPH where some intelligence shines through.

I slightly disagree, though. I do think you'll see a price drop, but I don't think it's going to be dramatic.
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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I just figured I'd be mocked for suggesting that G71 may just be a simple die shrink and not the 32-pipe supercard that some here are salivating over.
 

Matt2

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Jul 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
I just figured I'd be mocked for suggesting that G71 may just be a simple die shrink and not the 32-pipe supercard that some here are salivating over.

Well, if that's the case, I'll be thuroughly disappointed.
 

nitromullet

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2004
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Originally posted by: Matt2
Originally posted by: M0RPH
I just figured I'd be mocked for suggesting that G71 may just be a simple die shrink and not the 32-pipe supercard that some here are salivating over.

Well, if that's the case, I'll be thuroughly disappointed.

I wouldn't worry to much. I don't think M0RPH is correct on this... It might not be a 32 piper, but I don't think it will be "just a die shrink" either.
 

Matt2

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: Ronin
32 pipes, 90nm, higher clock speeds, and *maybe* faster RAM (but the RAM is less likely than the rest).

All 3 are all but confirmed.

Can I get an "AMEN" on decent prices?? :D
 

Ronin

Diamond Member
Mar 3, 2001
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Originally posted by: Matt2
Originally posted by: Ronin
32 pipes, 90nm, higher clock speeds, and *maybe* faster RAM (but the RAM is less likely than the rest).

All 3 are all but confirmed.

Can I get an "AMEN" on decent prices?? :D

Doh, did I forget that in there? LOL

Sorry about that. ;)

I do hope that the price point drops somewhat to sub $600 again.
 

Matt2

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: Ronin
Originally posted by: Matt2
Originally posted by: Ronin
32 pipes, 90nm, higher clock speeds, and *maybe* faster RAM (but the RAM is less likely than the rest).

All 3 are all but confirmed.

Can I get an "AMEN" on decent prices?? :D

Doh, did I forget that in there? LOL

Sorry about that. ;)

I do hope that the price point drops somewhat to sub $600 again.

You and I both mang.

I really like my 7800GTs and Nvidia's drivers, but if they try and make me fork out $650-$700 for one of their cards I jsut might have to tell them where to stick that card...

:)
 

Munky

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Feb 5, 2005
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I actually have an idea that will probably be dismissed as a baseless conspiracy theory, but I though I'd say it anyways. My impression is that the 512gtx was never even intended to be released in the form that it was, but something went wrong with Nv's original plans and it was forced into action, along with the 6800gs. The 512gtx is basically the same core as the high end quadro workstation card that sells for $2000-3000, to a much smalled market than the general public. For the general public Nv had different plans. They learned that Ati was having problems with the r520 late spring/early summer 2005, and decided to go ahead with the 256mb gtx, clocked with comfortable yield margins, allowing for good supply and profit margins. I'm betting that they figured the 256gtx was enough to compete with the r520, and even went as far as saying that there will not be an ultra model.

What I find unusual is that after the release of the 7800 series last summer, there have been no further 7 series models in 2005 - no 7600, no 7200, nothing else. They could not count on the older 6800's to filled in the gap, because the price of the 6800's has not dropped to that level - the 6800gt was and still is selling for $280+ . My theory is that Nv had plans to move to the 90nm process before the end of 2005, and to already have 90nm 7600 and 7200 card released by the end of 2005, but the transition did not go as smoothly as expected. Therefore, the 6800gs was quickly released as a band aid solution to have some new product at the $200 price point. The 7800gs was also scrapped, most likely to prevent stealing sales from either the 7800gt or the 6800gs.

Nobody outside of Ati could have predicted the r520 would get delayed as much as it did, but because it was delayed so long, it allowed the 7800 series to acquire a fair share of the market, and the r520 would not have made much of a ripple in the market due to the delay, with or without a faster Nv card to compete with. In addition, I'm betting that the rumored g71 was originally planned to launch around this time (as in right now), the same time as the r580, and would have allowed the r520 to possibly keep the crown for a whole 2 months, which is hardly worth worrying about. But, somehow, things did not go as smothly as planned, and the g71 was not ready for an early 2006 launch. Knowing fully well that Ati will try to recover from the r520 delay fiasco, and that it did not appear to have a total domination over the 256gtx, Nv could have predicted themselves that the r580 would likely follow soon. Having no card to compete, they scrambled to release the fastest card they could at the time - the $2500 quadro relabeled as a $650 gtx512. This would have allowed Nv not only to overshadow the r520 launch, but also to gain yet more market share, and in a way steal some of the potential buyers from the upcoming r580. What Nv did not count on is hordes of rabid enthusiasts that would want the card, and the resulting price hikes and supply shortages that followed.

So, based on this theory, you should not see the 512gtx in ample supply ever, simply because those cores were never produced for this market in the first place, and the demand has by far outpaced the supply. Moreover, the prices of these cores would not come down, because such a move would only create even more demand (yes, even after the launch of the x1900), which is the last thing Nv wants.
 

Matt2

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: munky
I actually have an idea that will probably be dismissed as a baseless conspiracy theory, but I though I'd say it anyways. My impression is that the 512gtx was never even intended to be released in the form that it was, but something went wrong with Nv's original plans and it was forced into action, along with the 6800gs. The 512gtx is basically the same core as the high end quadro workstation card that sells for $2000-3000, to a much smalled market than the general public. For the general public Nv had different plans. They learned that Ati was having problems with the r520 late spring/early summer 2005, and decided to go ahead with the 256mb gtx, clocked with comfortable yield margins, allowing for good supply and profit margins. I'm betting that they figured the 256gtx was enough to compete with the r520, and even went as far as saying that there will not be an ultra model.

What I find unusual is that after the release of the 7800 series last summer, there have been no further 7 series models in 2005 - no 7600, no 7200, nothing else. They could not count on the older 6800's to filled in the gap, because the price of the 6800's has not dropped to that level - the 6800gt was and still is selling for $280+ . My theory is that Nv had plans to move to the 90nm process before the end of 2005, and to already have 90nm 7600 and 7200 card released by the end of 2005, but the transition did not go as smoothly as expected. Therefore, the 6800gs was quickly released as a band aid solution to have some new product at the $200 price point. The 7800gs was also scrapped, most likely to prevent stealing sales from either the 7800gt or the 6800gs.

Nobody outside of Ati could have predicted the r520 would get delayed as much as it did, but because it was delayed so long, it allowed the 7800 series to acquire a fair share of the market, and the r520 would not have made much of a ripple in the market due to the delay, with or without a faster Nv card to compete with. In addition, I'm betting that the rumored g71 was originally planned to launch around this time (as in right now), the same time as the r580, and would have allowed the r520 to possibly keep the crown for a whole 2 months, which is hardly worth worrying about. But, somehow, things did not go as smothly as planned, and the g71 was not ready for an early 2006 launch. Knowing fully well that Ati will try to recover from the r520 delay fiasco, and that it did not appear to have a total domination over the 256gtx, Nv could have predicted themselves that the r580 would likely follow soon. Having no card to compete, they scrambled to release the fastest card they could at the time - the $2500 quadro relabeled as a $650 gtx512. This would have allowed Nv not only to overshadow the r520 launch, but also to gain yet more market share, and in a way steal some of the potential buyers from the upcoming r580. What Nv did not count on is hordes of rabid enthusiasts that would want the card, and the resulting price hikes and supply shortages that followed.

So, based on this theory, you should not see the 512gtx in ample supply ever, simply because those cores were never produced for this market in the first place, and the demand has by far outpaced the supply. Moreover, the prices of these cores would not come down, because such a move would only create even more demand (yes, even after the launch of the x1900), which is the last thing Nv wants.

I think that is very plausible munky. I especially agree with your theory that the GTX 512 cores were just rebadged Quadros.

I also think it's very possible that Nvidia is having 90nm growing pains. I think the MArch 9 launch date gave them a little cushion to make sure that they were getting good enough yields to introduce an R580 equal if not killer in quantity.

After the 512 GTX debacle, I think we'll see another 7800GTX type launch... The Empire Strikes Back...
 

Munky

Diamond Member
Feb 5, 2005
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Originally posted by: Ronin
I'm curious...you think they relabeled all those cores, too? :)

"relabeling" was an oversimplification in my original post.
 

Ronin

Diamond Member
Mar 3, 2001
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You might recall that 90nm isn't new to them anymore (the 6100/6150's are 90nm GPUs, although integrated). Yes, it's not quite the same thing, but they DO already have 90nm experience.
 

redbox

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2005
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I was hoping that price drops would come like the past 7800, but oh well guess it is another 7800gt for me. The 6 month step up i was refering to was the orig. step added to the step up I will get for the next 7800gt.
 

n7

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2004
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Some very interesting theories in this thread :)

Intel didn't have much success initially with the drop to 90nm, neither did ATi.
I'd guess that nVidia may have a few issues too.

Seems like AMD is the only one that had a smooth transition, & one that provided large improvements...
 

Matt2

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2001
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I just hope Nvidia is sitting on a monster right now, just racking up the supply.

That's the only excuse I'll accept from them since it's been July since we've seen anything new worth while.
 

apoppin

Lifer
Mar 9, 2000
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Originally posted by: Ronin
32 pipes, 90nm, higher clock speeds, and *maybe* faster RAM (but the RAM is less likely than the rest).

All 3 are all but confirmed.

what does that mean?

i know 90nm . . . and higher clock speeds go without saying . . . and probably faster RAM [at least for their 'ultra'] . . .

that's 'three' ;)

so the 32 pipes are "all but confirmed" ?
:confused:

i expect the 7900'ultra' will be significantly faster than x1900xt . . . it has 'everything' going for it - even if it's just a "faster 512 GTX" ;)

. . . if it isn't, nVidia will never live it down [never gonna happen]

and the 512-GTX was evidently a very expensive card to make . . . i really don't expect to see much availability or big price drops.