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7/31/21 The vaccines work

Feb 4, 2009
31,389
11,790
136
Data from the CDC
Accurate as of now

Less than 0.004% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 experienced a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization and less than 0.001% died from the disease, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,877
6,635
136
One number stays the same, if you check in, there is a 25% chance you dont check out. Well.. You'll check out, just not via the front door.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,787
2,272
136
I'm as pro-vaccine as they come, but those numbers are super misleading since the delta variant blowing up has only really been a thing for a few of weeks in the US. I'd prefer hearing national stats for COVID hospitalizations and deaths in the last week and how they break down fully vaccinated vs unvaccinated, of course assuming they crosscheck with peoples' SSN so we're not going on the honor system, since I bet a lot of unvaccinated people hospitalized tell their nurses and doctors they were vaccinated to not piss them off. That's information us vaccinated Americans need to know to asses our risk in the face of delta. The fact CDC isn't putting these numbers out in the press kind of worries me.
 
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allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
23,976
2,212
136
Our county isn't super about getting information out but, according to the hospitals, we have beaucoup new hospitalizations and lots of Delta cases and almost all are unvaccinated folks, but we have had no deaths since around the first of June. And that alone gives me hope.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
14,304
9,921
136
I'm as pro-vaccine as they come, but those numbers are super misleading since the delta variant blowing up has only really been a thing for a few of weeks in the US. I'd prefer hearing national stats for COVID hospitalizations and deaths in the last week and how they break down fully vaccinated vs unvaccinated, of course assuming they crosscheck with peoples' SSN so we're not going on the honor system, since I bet a lot of unvaccinated people hospitalized tell their nurses and doctors they were vaccinated to not piss them off. That's information us vaccinated Americans need to know to asses our risk in the face of delta. The fact CDC isn't putting these numbers out in the press kind of worries me.
The problem here is that while there is plenty of evidence that delta is more transmissible, there is no evidence that it is deadlier than earlier strains. Studies of delta based on data from countries who have had it longer so far aren’t showing worse patient outcomes.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,787
2,272
136
The problem here is that while there is plenty of evidence that delta is more transmissible, there is no evidence that it is deadlier than earlier strains. Studies of delta based on data from countries who have had it longer so far aren’t showing worse patient outcomes.
Is that what Israel is showing? Kind of what you'd expect from natural selection, being more transmissible gives the virus greater chance for replication, but killing the host gives it much less chance for replication, so one would expect more easily transmissible but less deadly strains to keep developing and dominating other strains into the future. Which kind of feels like what we have been seeing based on how deadly COVID was in the early stages of the pandemic.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
14,304
9,921
136
Is that what Israel is showing? Kind of what you'd expect from natural selection, being more transmissible gives the virus greater chance for replication, but killing the host gives it much less chance for replication, so one would expect more early transmissible but less deadly strains to keep developing. Which kind of feels like what we have been seeing based on how deadly COVID was in the early stages of the pandemic.
From what I’ve read, the death rate went down over the first few months because they got better at treating it.

In any event, I see no reason to question the data in relation to delta at this time.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,710
3,864
136
Is that what Israel is showing? Kind of what you'd expect from natural selection, being more transmissible gives the virus greater chance for replication, but killing the host gives it much less chance for replication, so one would expect more easily transmissible but less deadly strains to keep developing and dominating other strains into the future. Which kind of feels like what we have been seeing based on how deadly COVID was in the early stages of the pandemic.
I think that assumption about natural selection is being misused. Selection is working on more contagious variants at they moment, driven by a few simple mutations. First the d614g mutation, then a host of regional variants, b.1.1.7 winning out until Delta came along.

I'm sure there be another variant in the future, that displaces Delta, but it's way too early to say that selection pressure is attenuating the virus.
 
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BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
57,554
5,861
126
Our county isn't super about getting information out but, according to the hospitals, we have beaucoup new hospitalizations and lots of Delta cases and almost all are unvaccinated folks, but we have had no deaths since around the first of June. And that alone gives me hope.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
57,554
5,861
126
Darwin seems to like blue.
There's all of about 75000 people in the county. Compared to the Red-as Red can be Flori-Duh...


Florida on Friday reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19 — the most infections in a single day since the start of the pandemic, according to data released Saturday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Over the last seven days, Florida saw a 50% weekly increase in new cases, reporting 110,477 cases from July 23 to July 29, according to the Florida Department of Health. In July, Florida was one of four states that accounted for 40% of the country's total infections, according to White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Zients. During that time, the Sunshine State recorded one out of every five of the nation's new cases, he said.

"There is no higher risk area in the United States than we're seeing here," Florida International University infectious disease expert Dr. Aileen Marty told CBS Miami. "The numbers that we're seeing are unbelievable, just unbelievably frightening."
I think we're doing OK. (but I still expect mask mandates to happen almost any day)
 

H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
400
239
86
Our county isn't super about getting information out but, according to the hospitals, we have beaucoup new hospitalizations and lots of Delta cases and almost all are unvaccinated folks, but we have had no deaths since around the first of June. And that alone gives me hope.
It's because this damned virus, even in it's "original form", drove so many people to the hospital @ the same time that lockdowns were imposed in the 1st place, or they'd face a complete collapse and then, not only COVID, generally every other "ordinarily" disease / accident could become life threatening due to lack of resources.

The vaccine's TRUE value is in driving the hospitalizations down, to the point that countries can open up fully once the herd immunity threshold is achieved, but no country has achieved herd immunity yet, though several are now close: we can now see the light @ the end of the tunnel ... but we're STILL INSIDE the damned tunnel ... so let's not let down our guard just yet.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
18,228
5,439
136

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,710
3,864
136
Is that what Israel is showing? Kind of what you'd expect from natural selection, being more transmissible gives the virus greater chance for replication, but killing the host gives it much less chance for replication, so one would expect more easily transmissible but less deadly strains to keep developing and dominating other strains into the future. Which kind of feels like what we have been seeing based on how deadly COVID was in the early stages of the pandemic.
I think that assumption about natural selection is being misused. Selection is working on more contagious variants at they moment, driven by a few simple mutations. First the d614g mutation, then a host of regional variants, b.1.1.7 winning out until Delta came along.

I'm sure there be another variant in the future, that displaces Delta, but it's way too early to say that selection pressure is attenuating the virus.
As a follow up, a UK scientific advisory group has published a paper speculating on long term evolutionary prospects for cov2.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

Personally, I've been watching/wondering when we'd see more antigenic mutations/variants being favored, but I think we still don't have high enough of an immunity rate to create the necessary selection pressure because the virus can still find fertile ground amongst the immunologically naive (eg unvaccinated.)

It's a long paper, but one argument they make (and I agree with) is that we are in a very dangerous period right now as we have some pressure for antigenicity, but also a very high transmission level and large pool that is generating an enormous volume of virus, thus opportunities to generate dangerous new variants.

IOW, it's luck, and high transmission means more chances the virus has to roll 7s on us.
 
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BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
19,950
1,474
126
Friggin Desantis sent out a donation request last week and claimed he would "hold Faucchi accountable", then 4 days later was begging anyone not yet vaccinated to do so ASAP. Wait Ron, isn't that the EXACT message Faucchi has been preaching since Feb?.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,877
6,635
136
Wonder if they are already in the process of tuning the vaccines to Delta?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
30,283
3,812
126
Using percentage of total population is a strong move for propaganda purposes. It greatly irritates me that the media has been parroting those figures. They serve no practical purpose until a pandemic is over, as they'll simply grow by the day.

A meaningful number would be Vaccinated infections, hospitalizations and deaths VS Non in recent days / weeks.
 

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