5% Unemployment & 271,000 Jobs

[OverVolt]

Except to absorb all the millennials into the work force we need 400k jobs per month.

And most of these went to boomers.

So an entire generation is still on schedule to be stunted.

 

[Newell Steamer]

You said that already. Have anything new or just regurgitating Ghostbears talking points?

Rage on, you buffoon, rage on.

 

[shortylickens]

Rage on, you buffoon, rage on.

thats funny considering your posts here.

 

[Spungo]

So an entire generation is still on schedule to be stunted.

It's all going according to plan

Don't worry, they won't raise rates. They'll never raise rates. After creating a record amount of leverage, raising rates would probably cause a huge recession. We're already seeing tightness in the bond market:
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:HYG&ei=bKBAVoiFNe2vigKpxZmIBA

What's special about the bond market is that bond problems are contagious. Suppose two people are running oil companies, Company A and Company B. Both companies use credit on a regular basis. If Company A starts having difficulty paying its debts, the interest rates on Company B will rise as well because there is reduced demand for debt issued by that sector. Since oil peaked in 2014, the credit market has been crashing. We're already in the tightening part of the credit cycle. If the fed raises rates, it would make the credit market even worse.

We're also in a severe global depression right now. China's economic slowdown is much worse than they are willing to admit. The government can lie all day about how strong China's economy is, but objective measures like imported metal and coal are crashing. Shipping rates and rail cargo are way down in China. Australia and Canada are facing a major downturn because the demand for raw materials fell off a cliff. The last thing anyone wants is for the US to slow down at the same time as China or to slow down at the same speed as China.

Another issue relates to inflation and deflation. We complain about the dollar rapidly losing value, and the cost of food and healthcare are going up much faster than wages, but inflation in other countries is a lot worse. Brazilian Real graph. This is a problem because debts around the world are often denominated in US dollars. Strengthening the dollar is great for people holding dollars (Americans), but it's very bad for the people trying to buy dollars through the sale of goods (everyone outside the US). Raising interest rates to strengthen the dollar would make the current crisis in emerging markets even worse.

A lot of our prosperity depends on other countries accepting our pieces of paper in exchange for tangible goods. If we're not willing to play ball with the rest of the world, the world will find a way to play ball without us. Instead of looking at the US economy, try looking at the global economy. The fed's actions affect the entire world, so the fed takes the entire world into consideration.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

babyboomers are retiring. We knew this day was coming forever. The question is did baby boomers shape public policy to plan for their retirements or did they just use up all that money for other things and expect their children to pick up the tab?

What is this generation doing to shape public policy so that their children don't have to pick up the tab?

 

[NaughtyGeek]

Why do right wingers keep perpetrating this lie about the unemployment rate and the unemployment benefits exiting or ending.

Crash course in how unemployment works. 1. Joe Jobless loses his job and files a claim with the unemployment office for benefits. 2. To receive benefits, Joe Jobless must submit proof to the unemployment office that he is actively searching for employment. 3. Joe Jobless doesn't get work in time and his benefits expire. 4. Joe Jobless quits submitting proof to the employment office that he is looking for a job as there is no need since he can't get benefits. 5. Joe Jobless gets moved to the category of "Persons marginally attached to the labor force" or takes whatever part time or underpaid position he can find since he's no longer receiving benefits and therefore moves out of the U-3 category typically reported as the official unemployment number.

 

[fskimospy]

Crash course in how unemployment works. 1. Joe Jobless loses his job and files a claim with the unemployment office for benefits. 2. To receive benefits, Joe Jobless must submit proof to the unemployment office that he is actively searching for employment. 3. Joe Jobless doesn't get work in time and his benefits expire. 4. Joe Jobless quits submitting proof to the employment office that he is looking for a job as there is no need since he can't get benefits. 5. Joe Jobless gets moved to the category of "Persons marginally attached to the labor force" or takes whatever part time or underpaid position he can find since he's no longer receiving benefits and therefore moves out of the U-3 category typically reported as the official unemployment number.

This is simply factually inaccurate. I don't know where this nonsense comes from, other than from conservative sites trying to dupe people into thinking the government is juking the stats.

You are not somehow reassigned to a different category on the unemployment survey when you stop submitting proof to the employment office in order to receive unemployment benefits. The U3 number is in absolutely no way based on data from unemployment offices throughout the country. They have literally nothing to do with one another. U3 is generated based on the household survey. If you would like to learn more, you can read up on how unemployment is calculated here:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

Here's the relevant quote:

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data. In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country.

 

[NaughtyGeek]

This is simply factually inaccurate. I don't know where this nonsense comes from, other than from conservative sites trying to dupe people into thinking the government is juking the stats.

You are not somehow reassigned to a different category on the unemployment survey when you stop submitting proof to the employment office in order to receive unemployment benefits. The U3 number is in absolutely no way based on data from unemployment offices throughout the country. They have literally nothing to do with one another. U3 is generated based on the household survey. If you would like to learn more, you can read up on how unemployment is calculated here:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

Here's the relevant quote:

Concerning actively looking for work, I stand corrected. However, there is no denying that if Joe Jobless gets part time work he moves to U-6 effectively making him not count. Not to mention if he's forced to take a job for half what he was making before.

However, not everyone just gets spoon fed drivel from right or left wing mouthpieces like so many in here are spouting. The dumb "lies" I was referring to come from sources such as http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/01/news/economy/unemployment-benefits/ and last I heard CNN wasn't at the top of "mouth breather ultra right wingers" official reading list.

Not everyone who doesn't see this or any other government report as sunshine and roses is some sort of right wing retard. While this board is stuffed with political mouthpieces from the left and the right, some of us still look at multiple sources of information to form our opinions.

I'm also currently smack dab in the middle of an area reeling from unemployment due to the crushing blows to the oil and gas industry so I'm particularly negative on glowing jobs reports when I see the exact opposite in my area.

 

[ivwshane]

Concerning actively looking for work, I stand corrected. However, there is no denying that if Joe Jobless gets part time work he moves to U-6 effectively making him not count. Not to mention if he's forced to take a job for half what he was making before.

However, not everyone just gets spoon fed drivel from right or left wing mouthpieces like so many in here are spouting. The dumb "lies" I was referring to come from sources such as http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/01/news/economy/unemployment-benefits/ and last I heard CNN wasn't at the top of "mouth breather ultra right wingers" official reading list.

Not everyone who doesn't see this or any other government report as sunshine and roses is some sort of right wing retard. While this board is stuffed with political mouthpieces from the left and the right, some of us still look at multiple sources of information to form our opinions.

I'm also currently smack dab in the middle of an area reeling from unemployment due to the crushing blows to the oil and gas industry so I'm particularly negative on glowing jobs reports when I see the exact opposite in my area.

Clearly you didn't bother reading Eskimodpys link.

 

[fskimospy]

Concerning actively looking for work, I stand corrected. However, there is no denying that if Joe Jobless gets part time work he moves to U-6 effectively making him not count. Not to mention if he's forced to take a job for half what he was making before.

That would depend on why he got the part time job, but regardless he definitely counts, just in a different way. That's a good thing too, as someone working part time ISN'T the same as someone with no job at all. We have U1-U6 measures for a very good reason, which is that there's many different ways to be unemployed or underemployed.

However, not everyone just gets spoon fed drivel from right or left wing mouthpieces like so many in here are spouting. The dumb "lies" I was referring to come from sources such as http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/01/news/economy/unemployment-benefits/ and last I heard CNN wasn't at the top of "mouth breather ultra right wingers" official reading list.

Fair point! I'm disappointed that CNN was so sloppy in their reporting.

Not everyone who doesn't see this or any other government report as sunshine and roses is some sort of right wing retard. While this board is stuffed with political mouthpieces from the left and the right, some of us still look at multiple sources of information to form our opinions.

BLS numbers are transparently collected and calculated and they broadly conform to international norms on these sort of issues. I just don't get why people have so many conspiracy theories around it.

I'm also currently smack dab in the middle of an area reeling from unemployment due to the crushing blows to the oil and gas industry so I'm particularly negative on glowing jobs reports when I see the exact opposite in my area.

That sucks, I'm sorry to hear that. The oil boom/bust must have really messed with a lot of communities.

 

[dank69]

...

I'm also currently smack dab in the middle of an area reeling from unemployment due to the crushing blows to the oil and gas industry so I'm particularly negative on glowing jobs reports when I see the exact opposite in my area.

Were you all "Fuck yeah, Obama economy is awesome!" from 2009-2014?

 

[dank69]

I'll just leave this right here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-readies-first-hike-almost-135151591.html

 

[brianmanahan]

thats funny considering your posts here.

i'm not certain OP posts here anymore

i think he may have evolved past the need for his physical body and became an essence of pure satire, hatred, and socialism.

 

[alcoholbob]

He went the way of Mayne?

 

[brianmanahan]

He went the way of Mayne?

if so, then he has chosen the way of pain

(and dysfunctional family dynamics)

 

[MongGrel]

Crash course in how unemployment works. 1. Joe Jobless loses his job and files a claim with the unemployment office for benefits. 2. To receive benefits, Joe Jobless must submit proof to the unemployment office that he is actively searching for employment. 3. Joe Jobless doesn't get work in time and his benefits expire. 4. Joe Jobless quits submitting proof to the employment office that he is looking for a job as there is no need since he can't get benefits. 5. Joe Jobless gets moved to the category of "Persons marginally attached to the labor force" or takes whatever part time or underpaid position he can find since he's no longer receiving benefits and therefore moves out of the U-3 category typically reported as the official unemployment number.

Been there, doing that.