4K HDTVs to Remain Exotic for More Than Five Years, Claim Market Observers (Xbitlabs)

[RussianSensation]

4K HDTVs to Remain Exotic for More Than Five Years, Claim Market Observers.

"Despite some high-profile product introductions, consumer demand for televisions with the ultra-high-definition (UHD) 4K resolution [3840*2160] will remain negligible for the foreseeable future, with shipments never accounting for more than 1% of the global liquid crystal display (LCD) TV market during the next five years.

“If you have a television that is 60" or larger and are watching video that has a 3840*2160 resolution, then a 4K television makes sense. However, a very limited amount of content is available at the 4K resolution. Meanwhile, because of high prices and other issues, the market for super-sized, 60" and larger TV-sets is very small, at only about 1.5% of total television shipments in 2012. Furthermore, for most people, the [1920*1080] resolution is good enough. Because of these factors, combined with the massive price tags, the market for 4K TV-sets during the next few years will be limited to very wealthy consumers or to commercial uses,” said Tom Morrod, director, TV systems and technology research for IHS.

Worldwide shipments of 4K LCD-TVs will rise to 2.1 million units in 2017, up from 4000 in 2012, according to an IHS iSuppli. Despite the large increase over the years, 4K will account for only 0.8% of the global LCD-TV shipments by 2017." ~ XBitlabs



Let's hope at least 2560x1600 30 inch IPS monitors come down in price to $400-500 price levels in the meantime.

 

[Durvelle27]

two long a wait just gonna get this XD

http://www.vizio.com/cinemawide/specs


CinemaWide® 58" Theater 3D HDTVs deliver cinematic 21:9 widescreen viewing and VIZIO Internet Apps® to connect you to a world of movie entertainment
VIZIO brings panoramic 21:9 aspect ratio HDTV to the US for the first time, expanding the boundaries of conventional widescreen to deliver a new standard of entertainment in breathtaking 2560 x 1080 resolution. VIZIO's Theater 3D® delivers the state-of-the-art 3D technology used at your local multiplex into your home to produce the most vibrant immersive 3D television available. VIZIO's built-in Wi-Fi and VIZIO Internet Apps® interface revolutionizes the way you watch TV, with a vast library of apps that allow you to chat, shop, or multitask all from one screen.

 

[StrangerGuy]

It's naive if manufacturers think they can entice people to upgrade from their old HDTVs when most people don't even care or understand HD to begin with. HDTVs sold so much for the past decade for plenty of other reasons than being HD.

 

[Siberian]

There is next to nothing available to watch @ 4K

 

[jackstar7]

There is next to nothing available to watch @ 4K

Exactly. Content will drive the adoption rate... if they can produce it.

Odds are you'll see ESPN and other sports-related media used to drive it by giving them higher-res cameras and such.

When bars and such can invest in a "sweet TV" to draw in a crowd for the game/fight/etc. then people see the product's "value" and start the process of want.


Does anyone have the numbers handy for 3D TV adoption rate? Because I see no need for it myself... but it seems like that would likely follow a similar curve.

 

[hokies83]

Wonder hwy there skipping 2560x1440 /1600

 

[futurefields]

"Wonder hwy there skipping 2560x1440 /1600"

Not enough of a jump from 1080, they will be releasing a new physical format media (like Blu Ray 2) along with 4k, so they expect you to buy your movie collection again.

 

[ShintaiDK]

There is next to nothing available to watch @ 4K

And there most likely wont the next 10-20 years in terms of TV. All the TV companies just used alot of money on 1080p for something they dont really get any money back from. And they wont just upgrade for fun. Only reason we got the upgrade was to digitalize the networks.

 

[OVerLoRDI]

And then there are people like my mom who still have SD CRT TVs. Man I hope her 36" Sony Trinitron doesn't die anytime soon. I don't want to move that thing when it dies... Amazon lists it at 270 pounds.

 

[hjalti8]

I can't see any difference between 1080p and 720p on a 51" TV from around 4 meters away, at that distance you would need a over 80" TV to see the diffference between 4K and 1080p.

So 4K is useless for pretty much everyone. Then instead of focusing on 4K they should be focusing on OLED displays so we can get rid of these horrible lcd's.

 

[Keysplayr]

So I'll wait six.

 

[RussianSensation]

I think Sony will market 4K resolution of their PS4 try to sell up-sell their next generation 4K TVs. The margins on the TV business are extremely thin and companies like Sony and Panasonic have been struggling trying to make a profit selling TVs.

That could entice them to have a marketing push for 4K TVs but as we have seen with 1080P content, it will take a while before 4K content is mainstream. Streaming over the Internet and the actual size of 4K content will make it even more difficult to ensure a quicker adoption than 1080P.

I still think Sony will market PS4 as a 4K capable console since sooner or later TV manufacturers will need to figure out a way to increase profit margins on TVs and 4K sounds like the next revolution in image quality.

 

[VulgarDisplay]

I think Sony will market 4K resolution of their PS4 try to sell up-sell their next generation 4K TVs. The margins on the TV business are extremely thin and companies like Sony and Panasonic have been struggling trying to make a profit selling TVs.

That could entice them to have a marketing push for 4K TVs but as we have seen with 1080P content, it will take a while before 4K content is mainstream. Streaming over the Internet and the actual size of 4K content will make it even more difficult to ensure a quicker adoption than 1080P.

I still think Sony will market PS4 as a 4K capable console since sooner or later TV manufacturers will need to figure out a way to increase profit margins on TVs and 4K sounds like the next revolution in image quality.

If they do it will be in the exact same shady way they did things with the PS3. They will say it's 4K capable but neglect to let users know that none of the content available for it runs at that resolution.

I remember when I bought my so called HD ps3 and was dumbfounded when I learned that almost no games ran in 1080p.

 

[cplusplus]

If they do it will be in the exact same shady way they did things with the PS3. They will say it's 4K capable but neglect to let users know that none of the content available for it runs at that resolution.

I remember when I bought my so called HD ps3 and was dumbfounded when I learned that almost no games ran in 1080p.

No matter what you may or may not think of it, 720p is HD.

If we want to get technical, anything above 640x480 is technically HD.

 

[VulgarDisplay]

No matter what you may or may not think of it, 720p is HD.

If we want to get technical, anything above 640x480 is technically HD.

Nowhere in the documentation does it prepare a PS3 owner for the crapshow that ends up on your screen by openly admitting this issue. It's still dishonest.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I still think Sony will market PS4 as a 4K capable console since sooner or later TV manufacturers will need to figure out a way to increase profit margins on TVs and 4K sounds like the next revolution in image quality.

And I think you are so very wrong.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Wonder hwy there skipping 2560x1440 /1600

They are wondering how they are going to get viewers to upgrade doubling the resolution, tiny little incremental bumps may work on the fringe of the PC upgrade world, but they are DOA in consumer electronics.

Does anyone have the numbers handy for 3D TV adoption rate? Because I see no need for it myself... but it seems like that would likely follow a similar curve.

3DTVs would have a significantly higher adoption rate, we aren't going to see 32" 4K displays anytime soon, while we did relatively shortly after launch on the 3D side.

Something that pops into my mind-

4K 40" = 147PPI
4K 46" = 97PPI
2560x1440 30"= 98PPI
2560x1600 27" = 112PPI

The thought of a 40" monitor that kills a current high end PC monitor for pixel density certainly does sound appealing to me.

If they do it will be in the exact same shady way they did things with the PS3. They will say it's 4K capable but neglect to let users know that none of the content available for it runs at that resolution.

Bought a few hundred different things that run @1080P for my PS3, they are these new fangled things they call Blu Rays

Not enough of a jump from 1080, they will be releasing a new physical format media (like Blu Ray 2) along with 4k, so they expect you to buy your movie collection again.

BR3D has the same throughput requirements as 4K would, so they don't need new media, they just have to finalize the spec.

That could entice them to have a marketing push for 4K TVs but as we have seen with 1080P content, it will take a while before 4K content is mainstream.

I don't think it will get mainstream in the way that HD is today for a long, long time. That said, Avatar, the rerelease of Blade Runner and many other titles already have 4K versions ready to go(along with most movies that are shown on iMax). This to me is a product line they are going to use as a premium tier and keep it there. Makes sense, videophiles who care about the absolute best can get it, for a price. Nice fat margins, they are happy, the rest of the world won't care that much.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Think its time to post this again:

So unless we gonna get wall sized TVs or simply sit in monitor distance from them. I dont see the need for 4K besides useless epeen.

 

[Pneumothorax]

Think its time to post this again:

So unless we gonna get wall sized TVs or simply sit in monitor distance from them. I dont see the need for 4K besides useless epeen.

Not to mention the crappy compression rates for the vast majority of streaming content. Even satellite/cable/Fios have pretty nasty artifacting due to bandwidth limitations. 4K is going to be HDTV was in the late 90's/early 2000's: bunch of joe-6packs saying "Check out my new 40 INCH HDTV!", then proceeds to show off his HBO running out of a 480i cable box connected via RCA/composite cables.

 

[beginner99]

Think its time to post this again:


So unless we gonna get wall sized TVs or simply sit in monitor distance from them. I dont see the need for 4K besides useless epeen.

exactly. I mean I see it now. When people see my TV (which at 47" isn't very large at all but i sit close to it) the always say "wow isn't that too big?" probably 90% of people sit too far away from their tv to even benefit from 720p. Average probably is 42" at 3m or something.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Think its time to post this again:

You know, I've seen that chart many times and just now realized how insanely stupidly wrong it is.

25" display not being able to tell the difference at ten feet between 480p and 1440p, insanely stupidly wrong. We have a boutique electronics shop in the town I live in. The owner of the shop actually has a very good 'test'- he has different resolution photos set up side by side to help people know if they can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p from a normal viewing distance. From twenty feet away(the couch he has set up at eight feet) I could instantly spot the difference double blinding it every time(he actually was amused due to my age, I remember my teen years.... in the 80s ).

I'm not saying the average viewer is going to be blown away by 4K, but that chart is just stupidly inaccurate.

 

[Durvelle27]

exactly. I mean I see it now. When people see my TV (which at 47" isn't very large at all but i sit close to it) the always say "wow isn't that too big?" probably 90% of people sit too far away from their tv to even benefit from 720p. Average probably is 42" at 3m or something.

i sit like 1FT away from my tv XD

 

[ShintaiDK]

exactly. I mean I see it now. When people see my TV (which at 47" isn't very large at all but i sit close to it) the always say "wow isn't that too big?" probably 90% of people sit too far away from their tv to even benefit from 720p. Average probably is 42" at 3m or something.

We got a 55" Samsung ES7005 TV. We were close to go 46" instead tho.

But the closest person sits around 2.4 meters away. Well within the optimal 1080 resolution. We would need something in the 70" before something better than 1080p would be noticeable. For 4K we would most likely need 100"+ size.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Not to mention the crappy compression rates for the vast majority of streaming content. Even satellite/cable/Fios have pretty nasty artifacting due to bandwidth limitations. 4K is going to be HDTV was in the late 90's/early 2000's: bunch of joe-6packs saying "Check out my new 40 INCH HDTV!", then proceeds to show off his HBO running out of a 480i cable box connected via RCA/composite cables.

Even if companies sell 4K TVs and we might get some Bluray for 4K. TV signals wont be 4K for the next 10-20 years. Not to mention a rerun of the mpeg2 vs mpeg4 again.

 

[Dark Shroud]

And then there are people like my mom who still have SD CRT TVs. Man I hope her 36" Sony Trinitron doesn't die anytime soon. I don't want to move that thing when it dies... Amazon lists it at 270 pounds.

My 32" Sony Trinitron is 235 pounds. My brother and I tried lifting it to put in our basement now it sits in my room on the same floor as the front room. Moving it down stairs just wasn't going to happen.

When it dies it's going to recycle at BestBuy, it should be just with in their size limit.