450mm Wafers from Intel or TSMC?

[DanielNenni]

The debate continues but in my informed opinion: if Intel goes 450mm and AMD/GFI does not it? AMD will have to use TSMC for CPU and GPU's.

And if TSMC goes 450mm and other foundries do not? TSMC will own the GPU market once again.

Don't forget about memories. If Samsung gets 450mm then kiss Micron good-bye! Intel will buy them for pennies on the dollar.

Just my informed opinion of course!

 

[Genx87]

What are the technical hurdles beyond the move? And why havent they done it sooner? Didnt Intel move to 300mm wafers in the late 90s?

 

[VirtualLarry]

Wouldn't there be significant technical issues dealing with variability of dies across the face of the wafer? There is already some variability with 300mm.

 

[DanielNenni]

What are the technical hurdles beyond the move? And why havent they done it sooner? Didnt Intel move to 300mm wafers in the late 90s?

Lots of technical hurdles, which is why it is the longest debate I have seen on a LinkedIn semiconductor group. Deja vue of the transition from 200mm to 300mm.

The most interesting one is growing a 450mm silicon ingot. I will blog again about it next month.

But considering that the company or country that solves the 450mm technical puzzle will dominate the $300B+ semiconductor manufacturing industry? Ego, greed... Oh ya, it will happen.

 

[PandaBear]

Growing 450mm wafer being one problem, the bigger one would be the R&D of a complete set of new equipment that makes the current one obsolete, the even bigger one would be the flexing of wafer and the variation along wafer surface in the processes (optical, chemical, thermal, mechanical) that make chips vary too much and drop yield.

The main benefit going from 200mm to 300mm is not size, but the EFEM system that put a mini clean room around the equipment to make class 1 FAB much cheaper and automation much easier, while reducing human presence in the FAB and make them maintenance crew only.

Bigger wafer also means mask cost will increase, thus you need an even higher volume to recover your initial investment, not for others who are smaller than Intel or Samsung.

Toshiba/SanDisk already say no to 450mm after evaluation, so even if Intel goes alone, not too many tool vendor want to do R&D just for one customer.

 

[NoStateofMind]

For those who would like a little background on Wafer "growing" (like me), check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvKKvQQsrSc

 

[DanielNenni]

For those who would like a little background on Wafer "growing" (like me), check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvKKvQQsrSc

Great link, thanx! Here is a good one on the manufacturing process.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rCyu8B0tYs&feature=related

 

[cbn]

According to Thomas Sonderman, Vice President of manufacturing systems and technology at GlobalFoundries:

“The rush to 450mm suggests a lack of ideas for improving fab productivity. At GlobalFoundries, we see a tremendous amount of headroom left in the 300mm process. We are tapping our expertise in lean manufacturing to extend the lifecycle of the industry’s current 300mm investments, and we are investing more than $4 billion in a new, state-of-the-art 300mm fab in upstate New York because we are confident in our ability to get the most out of this technology generation.”

Daniel,

Does this mention of GF's upstate New York fab refer to one that was previously owned by IBM?

 

[DanielNenni]

Daniel,

Does this mention of GF's upstate New York fab refer to one that was previously owned by IBM?

No, it is brand new:

Fab 8 - Saratoga County, NY

Building on the history of developing award-winning semiconductor manufacturing facilities around the world, GLOBALFOUNDRIES is building the most advanced 300mm wafer fab in the world at the Luther Forest Technology Campus in Saratoga County, New York. Construction of the new fab began in July 2009 and is the largest commercial economic development project in the USA.

Maximum Full Capacity: Expected to be more than 40,000 300mm wafers/month (Phase 1)
(More than 94,500 200mm wafers/month equivalent)
Technology: 28nm and below

Some GlobalFoundry guys are in Taiwan this week. Expect an announcement with UMC maybe next week.

 

[Lonyo]

Most of the news stories going back into the past about 450mm wafers seem to be people talking about how they aren't going to be early adopters. There is also one (from 2006) talking about... consolidation in the industry (which is already happening somewhat anyway, as you can see from GF+Chartered and the rumours about IBM).
Sure, Intel and TSMC might go early and get to deal with all the problems, but that doesn't mean people aren't going to go there, just that they don't see the shorter term need or benefits.

Most people don't seem to be saying "if" but "when", so the debate is more about timing and the benefits it may bring than whether it should be done, and when you have someone like GF who barely has 300mm capacity, where's the need to try and invest billions in an untested 450mm wafer fab?

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=187001870
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1433658/450mm-wafers-distraction-fab-execs

Also your own story from your "famed blogger" self talks about middle of this decade (2015) for the beginnings with a quote from one of the TSMC guys.
In 2011/2012 we'll see Fusion. In 2015 there might not be a GPU market as we see today.
Also why would AMD have to use TSMC for CPUs and GPUs? Just because they have bigger wafers (in 5 years...)? Will GloFo be unable to build/buy enough capacity over the next 5 years to compensate for smaller wafers?

 

[cbn]

No, it is brand new:

Fab 8 - Saratoga County, NY

Building on the history of developing award-winning semiconductor manufacturing facilities around the world, GLOBALFOUNDRIES is building the most advanced 300mm wafer fab in the world at the Luther Forest Technology Campus in Saratoga County, New York. Construction of the new fab began in July 2009 and is the largest commercial economic development project in the USA.

Maximum Full Capacity: Expected to be more than 40,000 300mm wafers/month (Phase 1)
(More than 94,500 200mm wafers/month equivalent)
Technology: 28nm and below

Some GlobalFoundry guys are in Taiwan this week. Expect an announcement with UMC maybe next week.

Thanks.

I was wondering if this NY fab was the same as the one mentioned here-->http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/..._Acquire_IBM_s_Semiconductor_Fab_Analyst.html