3x correct AI predicts Trump win

[glenn1]

In the "take it for what it's worth" category this AI system is predicting Trump win. Got the last 3 POTUS runs correct as well as the primary results. I wouldn't be placing bets on Paddy Power based on this but does probably indicate this won't be a landslide for Clinton either. Or it could be complete crap like Punxsutawney Phil the weather groundhog predicting 6 more weeks of winter, you decide.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-system-finds-trump-win-104022784.html

<snip>

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama 's peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.

"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest," Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC. </snip>

 

[fskimospy]

The exact same result would happen from simply looking at the polling averages for those elections. Predicting the last 3 winners was not difficult.

 

[theeedude]

Not enough training data for AI. Meaning data overfitting.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Yeah problem there is that Trump has attracted a huge amount of negative social media engagement as well. There's no way the system could take that into consideration in the analyzing. And the usage this year of social media can't really be compared to prior years. This is the social media presidential campaign.

 

[vi edit]

Trump has something like 35% of his "social media" being regenerated by bot activity. Clinton is around 25%. And both of these are about 10x higher than the social site activity of previous elections. This election also has demographic bases turned on their heads and it's completely screwing up "historical" polling trends.

 

[Jhhnn]

Trump has something like 35% of his "social media" being regenerated by bot activity. Clinton is around 25%. And both of these are about 10x higher than the social site activity of previous elections. This election also has demographic bases turned on their heads and it's completely screwing up "historical" polling trends.

You need a link for that claim.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Trump has something like 35% of his "social media" being regenerated by bot activity. Clinton is around 25%. And both of these are about 10x higher than the social site activity of previous elections. This election also has demographic bases turned on their heads and it's completely screwing up "historical" polling trends.

Not sure of the numbers but I heard yesterday on NPR the dems had a higher number of bot generated content.

 

[agent00f]

Not enough training data for AI. Meaning data overfitting.

It's not so much overfitting as using inappropriate data in the first place. Seems they just used social media activity, which isn't exactly predictive as actual polling to see how people would vote.

Seems OP posted this on the twin basis of impressed by big words like "AI" and an outcome favorable to him.

 

[vi edit]

You need a link for that claim.

This was in regards to the first presidential debate. Sorry it was 33% & 22%. Not 35 and 25.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/technology/twitter-bots-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

University researchers who track political activity on Twitter have found that traffic on pro-Trump hashtags was twice as high as pro-Clinton hashtags during the first presidential debate.

But the team of academics, led by Oxford University professor Philip Howard, also found that 33% of pro-Trump traffic was driven by bots and highly automated accounts, compared to 22% for Clinton.

 

[bshole]

This was in regards to the first presidential debate. Sorry it was 33% & 22%. Not 35 and 25.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/technology/twitter-bots-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

University researchers who track political activity on Twitter have found that traffic on pro-Trump hashtags was twice as high as pro-Clinton hashtags during the first presidential debate.

But the team of academics, led by Oxford University professor Philip Howard, also found that 33% of pro-Trump traffic was driven by bots and highly automated accounts, compared to 22% for Clinton.

That seems slimy on both of their parts. Constructing bots to fake traffic...... or in plain English..... lying. This does not reflect well on either.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

That seems slimy on both of their parts. Constructing bots to fake traffic...... or in plain English..... lying. This does not reflect well on either.

and this was such a respectable campaign by both parties.. dammit..

 

[zinfamous]

Is that World-cup predicting octopus still alive? I want to know what she thinks about the US election.

 

[Jaskalas]

Roulette can go red 3x times. Doesn't mean you bet everything on red the 4th time.
Consider this election its biggest test, as it appears to be bucking conventional, or at least public, wisdom.

 

[werepossum]

That seems slimy on both of their parts. Constructing bots to fake traffic...... or in plain English..... lying. This does not reflect well on either.

Agreed.

and this was such a respectable campaign by both parties.. dammit..

lmao +1

Is that World-cup predicting octopus still alive? I want to know what she thinks about the US election.

I'd like to put $20 on "Massive ink cloud and attempted escape into international waters."

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Is that World-cup predicting octopus still alive? I want to know what she thinks about the US election.

basically it said "fvck it" serve me with some marinara sauce

 

[Zaap]

When Trump loses, I'd like to dismantle that AI system and build something useful out of it, like a kickass Hackintosh or gaming machine.

 

[Maxima1]

http://election.princeton.edu/

This stats guy thinks it's already over with Hillary being the winner. I think so too. Many other poll guys have incredibly flawed models e.g. 538.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[agent00f]

http://election.princeton.edu/

This stats guy thinks it's already over with Hillary being the winner. I think so too. Many other poll guys have incredibly flawed models e.g. 538.

Nate Silver might be more famous, but this guy has been doing it longer and has a record of almost uncanny accuracy in the details.

 

[nickqt]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, AI or anything else to know that Trump will be elected President of the United States of America.

I just hope the liberals will let him have a honeymoon after they are done rioting in large sanctuary cities.

My favorite part of your nonsense posts is that it is literally impossible to distinguish whether you're just a liberal parody troll, or an outright delusional conservative lunatic with internet access.

Please proceed, Felix.

 

[John Connor]

I'm 60% sure Trump will win and 40% sure Hillary will win. The race is a close one that is for sure. Anything can happen. And 7 days till the big show and within about two hours you'll here the media say, "we can now predict such & such has won the presidency."

 

[MongGrel]

My favorite part of your nonsense posts is that it is literally impossible to distinguish whether you're just a liberal parody troll, or an outright delusional conservative lunatic with internet access.

Please proceed, Felix.

I'd go with delusional, unless he's just mailing the troll thing in very weakly.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, AI or anything else to know that Trump will be elected President of the United States of America.

I just hope the liberals will let him have a honeymoon.

yea, the poor “billionaire Crème brûlée colostomy bag Donald Trump” has had such a rough life so far.

(blatantly stolen from @Midnight)

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

My favorite part of your nonsense posts is that it is literally impossible to distinguish whether you're just a liberal parody troll, or an outright delusional conservative lunatic with internet access.

Please proceed, Felix.

I believe he's rabidly pro-life, so......

 

[PokerGuy]

With the whole thing being rigged, the outcome was determined long ago, no polling needed