$35,000 Tesla Model III Is Coming In 2017

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thecoolnessrune

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2005
9,670
571
126
As the owner of a Model 3, I can't even imagine buying another Tesla 2 years later. I paid off my current one, and buying one like it today would cost $13,000 more! I just can't mentally justify that, even though they have some valid reasons for doing it.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
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I don’t see where the supply of EVs will come from to meet any extra demand. Tesla is having problem getting the factories open and they are about the only ones close to expanding capacity. Even then, that will cover existing orders. Doesn’t mean a single thing for 99.99% of freight that is run off oil.
 

drnickriviera

Platinum Member
Jan 30, 2001
2,414
199
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I don’t see where the supply of EVs will come from to meet any extra demand. Tesla is having problem getting the factories open and they are about the only ones close to expanding capacity. Even then, that will cover existing orders. Doesn’t mean a single thing for 99.99% of freight that is run off oil.
Ford just started construction on blue oval city
GM supposed to start on a 3rd battery plant and convert another plant to build silverado ev
Rivan trying to get their second plant, but doesn't look like GA wants it.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
Ford just started construction on blue oval city
GM supposed to start on a 3rd battery plant and convert another plant to build silverado ev
Rivan trying to get their second plant, but doesn't look like GA wants it.

Those will not be able to meet any of the extra demand. There are roughly 17 million auto sales a year in the US, Tesla leads EV with 300k last year. It will be years before Ford is ramped up and the others are just talking about where to build factories. It took Tesla nearly 2 years to stand up Austin and longer for Berlin and those focus on a single platform. Even Ford is giving themselves 8 years to hit 40% of sales which gives them enough to adjust and readjust their aspirations.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,613
13,296
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Those will not be able to meet any of the extra demand. There are roughly 17 million auto sales a year in the US, Tesla leads EV with 300k last year. It will be years before Ford is ramped up and the others are just talking about where to build factories. It took Tesla nearly 2 years to stand up Austin and longer for Berlin and those focus on a single platform. Even Ford is giving themselves 8 years to hit 40% of sales which gives them enough to adjust and readjust their aspirations.
So you do know where the production will come from! Glad you answered your own question.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,885
32,668
136
Have to take stock that we've move from basically "hm dunno if EVs will really catch on" to "OMG how TF are we going to build all these things that people really wanna buy" in a few short years as the baseline.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,206
6,799
136
Have to take stock that we've move from basically "hm dunno if EVs will really catch on" to "OMG how TF are we going to build all these things that people really wanna buy" in a few short years as the baseline.

That's why it's amusing to watch anti-EV holdouts continue to rail against the technology. They have to keep moving the goal posts, to keep coming up with excuses for an argument that boils down to "I'm afraid of change." Not that EVs aren't without serious challenges (charging infrastructure, power grid capacity, etc.), but their opponents really do act as if there will be some gotcha moment where the entire auto industry has second thoughts and completely reverts to ICE vehicles.

I'll be really curious to see what happens in the 2030s, when brands finish switching to all-EV lineups and the ICE sales bans start kicking in. The anti-EV types claim they'll hold on to their gas cars forever, but something tells me many of them will cave by then. It's easy to shout "never!" when you won't have to deal with reality for several years.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
I'll be really curious to see what happens in the 2030s, when brands finish switching to all-EV lineups and the ICE sales bans start kicking in. The anti-EV types claim they'll hold on to their gas cars forever, but something tells me many of them will cave by then. It's easy to shout "never!" when you won't have to deal with reality for several years.

You will be waiting much longer than 2030 to see what happens. Manufacturers are "targeting" that date to various degrees of switch over. Even at that point, a lot of new and lightly used ICE vehicles will be on the roads for 8-10 years. We've switched to all EV, but it was $140k to replace both cars. They may get cheaper, but at the rate that Tesla and everyone else is raising prices, I don't see that happening the closer we get to 2030.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,206
6,799
136
You will be waiting much longer than 2030 to see what happens. Manufacturers are "targeting" that date to various degrees of switch over. Even at that point, a lot of new and lightly used ICE vehicles will be on the roads for 8-10 years. We've switched to all EV, but it was $140k to replace both cars. They may get cheaper, but at the rate that Tesla and everyone else is raising prices, I don't see that happening the closer we get to 2030.

Oh, I don't doubt there will be plenty of people who'll keep their ICE cars for years after, including ordinary people who just can't afford/justify a new car. It's more that anti-EV types tend to act as if the industry is frozen in time, and that there will never, ever be a change in their mindset or lifestyle.

Yeah, it's hard to imagine affordable EVs now when the decent ones hover at or above $40K, but Chevy is already planning a $30K Equinox EV in the next couple of years; it's more a question of when EVs are accessible than if.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
Oh, I don't doubt there will be plenty of people who'll keep their ICE cars for years after, including ordinary people who just can't afford/justify a new car. It's more that anti-EV types tend to act as if the industry is frozen in time, and that there will never, ever be a change in their mindset or lifestyle.

Yeah, it's hard to imagine affordable EVs now when the decent ones hover at or above $40K, but Chevy is already planning a $30K Equinox EV in the next couple of years; it's more a question of when EVs are accessible than if.

My biggest issue is that the manufacturers talk a good game, but I have serious doubts that they will actually pull it off. GM, Ford, VW to name a few keep talking about their ambitions but time just seems to quickly slip away. Diess has been pretty public with his sentiment towards their failure to get going. Ford actually produced the Mach E, but scaling battery production for a heavier truck and making the sales impactful is another thing. We've seen a real lack of anything from Honda and Toyota. Kia/Hyundia seem to be the only ones doing anything, albeit quietly. Please don't take my skepticism as anti-EV either, it's that until I see a true shift by legacy auto, I will not put much merit in their claims.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,206
6,799
136
My biggest issue is that the manufacturers talk a good game, but I have serious doubts that they will actually pull it off. GM, Ford, VW to name a few keep talking about their ambitions but time just seems to quickly slip away. Diess has been pretty public with his sentiment towards their failure to get going. Ford actually produced the Mach E, but scaling battery production for a heavier truck and making the sales impactful is another thing. We've seen a real lack of anything from Honda and Toyota. Kia/Hyundia seem to be the only ones doing anything, albeit quietly. Please don't take my skepticism as anti-EV either, it's that until I see a true shift by legacy auto, I will not put much merit in their claims.

I definitely know you're in favor of EVs! I think those more accessible models are on their way within the next few years, and that the industry is lumbering into action (even Honda and Toyota are waking up). But I also realize we're in an awkward period where a lot of pieces have to fall into place: production, supply, economies of scale and the like.

Me, I have to admit: right now I'm just hoping the VW ID.Buzz is both priced well and lives up to the... er, buzz. I rather like the thought of an electric van that might even be considered cool, especially with a young family.