3 Ghz processors from ARM come 2014?

Mondozei

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2013
1,043
41
86
So there's been a lot of discussion lately on the high end segment of the processor market(which is where most of us are interested, at any rate). Intel's Bay Trail benchmarks on AnTuTu stirred a lot of controversy in the forums and a lot of back and forth.

Now, TSMC does not have the best reputation for holding their big words and pronouncements true to form and delivering on it on time. However, it's been common knowledge(or rather conventional wisdom), that TSMC would introduce 20 nm late 2014.

Via Digitimes, a lot of progress is being done as I write this, and it seems that TSMC will hit their deadline. Some websites even claim that TSMC will start producing 20 nm chips in early 2014 although I think a more realistic expectation is Q3 2014 for the iPhone 6 launch and the A7X chips. Either way, this would theoretically bring up the Ghz race up a notch even further, to reach 3 Ghz at the highest end.

Intel trump card was, aside from their architectual experience from designing chips for so long, their move into 14 nm. But now this has been delayed. Intel was never going to take home the cake in terms of market share where ARM dominates just about every single category. Intel did have a shot at the premium high end segment but is this now slipping away?
Because by 2015 (at the latest), you get Cortex A-57, so the question become if Intel is simply too late to the party by now.
 

Mondozei

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2013
1,043
41
86
There's a Wall St Journal article focusing primarily on the disentanglement of Apple from Samsung, through TSMC.

Nevertheless, there's an interesting quote in the article:

Wall Street Journal said:
TSMC plans to start mass-producing the chips early next year using advanced "20-nanometer" technology, which makes the chips potentially smaller and more energy-efficient.

So TSMC could get those newly powered ARM-processors out to market quicker than to the (assumed) September 2014 launch of iPhone 6.
Considering that Intel gets their smartphone Atom processors out early Q1, this could even vaporize their early lead even further and bring it to null.

Here's the article.
 

Nothingness

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2013
3,333
2,413
136
I don't consider Digitimes as a reliable source of information. Add to that I don't think Airmont (Silvermont @14nm) was delayed and is still scheduled for 2014 as far as I know.

That being said, I'm not sure Intel isn't late to the party. We'll probably have to wait end of 2014 to be sure.
 

CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
833
136
But now this has been delayed. Intel was never going to take home the cake in terms of market share where ARM dominates just about every single category. Intel did have a shot at the premium high end segment but is this now slipping away?
Because by 2015 (at the latest), you get Cortex A-57, so the question become if Intel is simply too late to the party by now.

Intel changing plans for desktop processors, doesn't mean that 14nm has been delayed for mobile/tablets/phones.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
There's a Wall St Journal article focusing primarily on the disentanglement of Apple from Samsung, through TSMC.

Nevertheless, there's an interesting quote in the article:



So TSMC could get those newly powered ARM-processors out to market quicker than to the (assumed) September 2014 launch of iPhone 6.
Considering that Intel gets their smartphone Atom processors out early Q1, this could even vaporize their early lead even further and bring it to null.

Here's the article.

Yeah, these 20nm chips...no FinFET, right? So in terms of transistor performance, the 22nm parts from Intel will still have an advantage over the 20nm TSMC-built parts.

Also, please stop spreading FUD, OP...

1095245-1371765699396428-Ashraf-Eassa_origin.png


1095245-1371766012793147-Ashraf-Eassa_origin.png
 
Last edited:

sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
A9r4 hits 2,4GHz with the HP process. It's a 50% increase over 40nm HP.

So i think we will see a 3GHz ARM processor with 20nm.
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,143
136
Broadwell ULT is still coming in H1/2014

Edit: Nevermind, Intel17 already posted. :p
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
Now, TSMC does not have the best reputation for holding their big words and pronouncements true to form and delivering on it on time. However, it's been common knowledge(or rather conventional wisdom), that TSMC would introduce 20 nm late 2014.

Where did this conventional wisdom come from?

I have been for some time expecting first 20nm products Q2 or Q3 2014, not Q4. However, rumors haven't been good, there's been some rumblings about it not dropping power consumption very much.

We know very little about Cortex-A57 (most importantly what, if anything it does to improve the efficiency of the design over A15 it's derived from) so I wouldn't hedge any serious bets on it against Intel at this time. No reason to expect 3GHz in 2014 either, especially on a tablet with A15 looking at 2GHz at the highest in 2013. If you really want to see the highest end in single-threaded performance for an ARM CPU keep your eyes on AMCC's X-gene. Right now I my expectations are for Qualcomm, Apple, and nVidia to drive perf/W the most for ARM CPUs in phones and tablets.
 
Last edited:

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
8,548
2
0
Yeah, these 20nm chips...no FinFET, right? So in terms of transistor performance, the 22nm parts from Intel will still have an advantage over the 20nm TSMC-built parts.

Correct. Intel's FinFET 22nm process will still be advantageous over TSMC's 20nm, and I can't see TSMC being able to produce 20nm in volume until 2H 2014.

Intel is just that far ahead of everyone else, basically - and their 14nm is still appearing next year in the form of mobile BGA Broadwell.
 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Where did this conventional wisdom come from?

I have been for some time expecting first 20nm products Q2 or Q3 2014, not Q4. However, rumors haven't been good, there's been some rumblings about it not dropping power consumption very much.

We know very little about Cortex-A57 (most importantly what, if anything it does to improve the efficiency of the design over A15 it's derived from) so I wouldn't hedge any serious bets on it against Intel at this time.

Exo,

From TSMC's latest call,

Morris Chang - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, she answered already, she said first half of next year. You actually set a pretty low hurdle. You said 2% or 3%, right?

Steven C. Pelayo - HSBC, Research Division
What quarter will be the first few percentage of revenues will come from 20-nanometer for TSMC?

Morris Chang - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
What quarter will be the first 2% quarter?

Lora Ho - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance
Well, based on our current estimation, it will be roughly second quarter 2014.

Yeah, I wouldn't expect the first 20nm planar parts to start shipping to device vendors until Q2, and given the lead time required to actually get the designs built and out the door, I'd say that you will not see 20nm mobile SoCs until solidly in 2H 2014.

Right around when Airmont comes along...;)
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
We've already been through this, I don't feel like repeating the same arguments with you. If you must here are the bullet points:

- I said first 20nm products but not "mobile SoC." And yes that IS relevant to this thread because if there were a 3GHz Cortex-A57 processor in 2014 it sure wouldn't be a mobile product
- I said Q2 or Q3 so your "firmly into 2H 2014" figure doesn't contradict it, but if you think "late 2014" fits it then you have some funny ideas of what the words imply
- Go look at Q4 2011 sales projections for 28nm, now when were the first 28nm products released again?