I do watch some 1080p YouTube videos from time-to-time in my VM, and my q6600 (@3.2 GHz) runs kind of choppy and also nearly nearly pushes my CPU to 100% across all 4 cores.
Well there's not much you can do about flash sucking. You claim to be paranoid about web surfing but then also complain about the sluggishness of a virtual machine. I'm not saying it's impossible to have both but you're putting yourself in that situation so understand that the VM is never going to be as fast as the host.
Can SMT (HT) improve guest OS performance with computationally intensive stuff? Provided you give the guest OS an equal number of cpu's as the host has logical processors it can (if you can use them all from the guest) but for your situation I wouldn't really think of giving the guest that many cpu's (less is more, also vmware player is limited to 4 cpu's for a guest I believe). Also the guest is not going to be able to make use of the hardware video acceleration for flash video playback so (because flash sucks) I'm not sure if you'll be able to view 1080p smooth regardless of the processor in a VM.
I'm not sure if it's been mentioned but you're also gaining EPT (extended page table) support (was introduced on nehalem) which would likely cut down on VM overhead, along with other architectural improvements since the q6600 (e.g. reduction in context switching time with vt-x).
As far as the processor is concerned my suggestion would be to simply buy what you can afford. If you can afford the 2600k then why not, it's not like HT is going to hurt (you can always disable it but there really isn't any good reason too). HT itself is not going to improve VM performance since you're not going to be using that many cpu's in the VM anyway, it's all the other stuff that has changed since the q6600 that's going to improve your VM performance (various architectural improvements along with the fact that the 2600k is (a lot) faster than a q6600).
For VM settings I would definitly say that less is more when the number of cpu's is concerned (at least on my i7-920). If I gave a guest os (linux) 8 cpu's to match the number of logical processors in my host (windows 7) then flash playback wouldn't be as smooth and the sound would be weird. Giving the guest 2 cpu's all was well again within reason for a virtual machine, both are slower than direct playback on the host. I'm not sure if enabling 3d acceleration would be beneficial but I think it made the experience smoother and reduced cpu load. I think that vmware is likely going to be better/faster than vbox but I can't say for certain that's the case when it comes to desktop smoothness (other than being free vbox really doesn't have much going for it and even vmware has player to compete in the free market).
Sorry this turned into a rather long (and boring) rant but the tl;dr version is:
-Yes you're crazy for using a VM just for web surfing.
-No the VM is never going to be as fast as the host (deal with it).
-Yes upgrading will likely improve your VM experience but HT won't be the cause of the improvement.
-Buy what you can afford, HT isn't going to hurt anything.
-Why not just run noscript, adblock, and (optionally) https everywhere if you're that paranoid and keep your browser up to date (chrome dev channel)?