20nm SoC's in 2015, GPU wait could be awhile!

tviceman

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http://www.nextpowerup.com/news/819...-announced-64-bit-on-20nm-coming-in-2015.html

The prevailing sentiment is that GPU's will come after SoC's are shipping in volume. For anyone interested, Qualcomm had 28nm SoC's out about 6 months ( the MDM8960 ) before there were any GPU's shipping. If this ends up being true, It definitely means it will be 2015 before we see 20nm GPU's from either Nvidia or AMD.

Enjoy what you got!
 
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wand3r3r

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This is what I've been suspecting and expecting. With recent launches of 290/x/295x2 Titan black/Z I would not expect them to be outdated in a few months.

Of course they could begin with the "mid" range but I don't think people will bite after the 680 mid range launch since we know they are coming (high end)
 

tviceman

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This is what I've been suspecting and expecting. With recent launches of 290/x/295x2 Titan black/Z I would not expect them to be outdated in a few months.

Of course they could begin with the "mid" range but I don't think people will bite after the 680 mid range launch since we know they are coming (high end)

Who are you kidding? About half the forum goers are changing out their 670's/680's/7950's/7970's for the new high end cards which were only 30-40% faster than what they replaced. The 680 was on the market for over a year before the gtx 780 came out, too. The 7970 was out longer before the 290x. If Maxwell GM104 brings 30+% faster performance than a 780 TI, the exact same things will happen. People will complain, but still buy it anyways.
 

TreVader

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Qualcomm has had 28nm since April 2013, The S600 in my phone is 28nm. So more like a year, not 6 months.
 

Shmee

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Pitty. Oh well, gives the 290(x) time to come down in price and increase supply.
 

tviceman

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Qualcomm has had 28nm since April 2013, The S600 in my phone is 28nm. So more like a year, not 6 months.

2013? What? No, Qualcomm has had 28nm on the market since Q2 of 2012 with the chip I mentioned, about 6-8 months ahead of the 7970 launch. There may have been another Qualcomm chip out sooner than that, but not by much. My point was that 28 SoC's came about a half year (give or take) before GPU's did.
 

BrightCandle

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TSMC said in January it had entered mass production of 20nm. A release of Snapdragon's in 1H 2015 suggests that they weren't the buyers of the early start silicon. Does that not make it more likely that the GPUs are due this year? Someone bought those wafer starts from TSMC and if its not mobile its GPUs.
 

tviceman

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TSMC said in January it had entered mass production of 20nm. A release of Snapdragon's in 1H 2015 suggests that they weren't the buyers of the early start silicon. Does that not make it more likely that the GPUs are due this year? Someone bought those wafer starts from TSMC and if its not mobile its GPUs.

More than likely it's Apple. I doubt so much that it is neither Nvidia nor AMD buying up wafers that I can confidently say No, isn't GPU's. AMD doesn't have the cash on hand to reserve that kind of expense, and Nvidia won't dent their margins and profitability that much. Think about it. Nvidia would not have taken the effort to release a 28nm Maxwell GPU and neither Nvidia nor AMD would be releasing dual-card high end GPU's right now either (would have came earlier).
 

Techhog

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Who are you kidding? About half the forum goers are changing out their 670's/680's/7950's/7970's for the new high end cards which were only 30-40% faster than what they replaced. The 680 was on the market for over a year before the gtx 780 came out, too. The 7970 was out longer before the 290x. If Maxwell GM104 brings 30+% faster performance than a 780 TI, the exact same things will happen. People will complain, but still buy it anyways.

The 7970 wasn't originally intended to be mid-range though. It was meant to be a flagship.
 

Bateluer

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The 7970 wasn't originally intended to be mid-range though. It was meant to be a flagship.

The 7970Ghz was AMD's flagship until they launched Hawaii. I don't really count the niche cards like the 6990 and 7990 though.

I was thinking that the 20nm cards would come late summer, but too many leaks are putting 2015 down now to continue that believe. Disappointing, but I did buy the Asus 290X DCU2 card and getting a good year or so from it will justify the cost.
 

Fastx

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FWIW ( I am taking the below quote in the article PC chip vendors as Nvidia/AMD)
"booked through the end of the third quarter of 2014 thanks to orders from handset solution and PC chip vendors"


TSMC_zps29d48df5.jpg
 

Kenmitch

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FWIW ( I am taking the below quote in the article PC chip vendors as Nvidia/AMD)
"booked through the end of the third quarter of 2014 thanks to orders from handset solution and PC chip vendors"


TSMC_zps29d48df5.jpg

Looking at that article I wouldn't come to the same conclusion as you.

iCrap taking the capacity most likely.
 
Feb 19, 2009
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SoCs are on LP process so it doesn't steal from HP production, unless you mean TSMC is prioritizing the mass production and scaling of LP first before HP.

Either way we've seen this coming with the release of newer SKUs from both camps, still with Titan Z coming.
 

Techhog

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So late 2015 for 20nm GPUs? This is really bad. It's gonna keep getting worse too. I can easily see 20nm lasting 5+years.

Both AMD and Nvidia need to start dumping all of their R&D into architectural improvements. TSMC has lost all reliability and credibility, and is not holding the entire industry back.
 

blackened23

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My thoughts exactly. If true, it does suck for everyone. I certainly hope it isn't true, but my optimism is waning at this point.

On the other hand, it will force increased focus on efficiency and engineering; being stuck on the same node for years at a time will require some serious re-thinking when designing an architecture. I think it will also create a razor like focus on efficiency - it's sort of needed when you're stuck on the same node forever. I'd like to think a lot of corporations have bright minds up to the task, I know some hate Apple here (windows guys + apple usually == oil + water) but say what you will. Their engineering has always been extremely impressive, not only on the hardware side but on the SoC side as well. Particularly their work on the A7. Hopefully some of this forward thinking-ness can carry over to GPU manufacturers.
 

beginner99

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Even if it is early 2015 I bet the will be priced like early products, meaning very expensive. Also the rumor is that 20 nm isn't that much better especially for non-SOC stuff. So I'm keeping my hopes down we will see anything affordable at 20 nm before mid 2015.
 

alcoholbob

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At this rate a 4K IPS monitor will be affordable long before there's a single gpu card that can run games on it above medium details, lolz.
 
Feb 19, 2009
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You can already run 4K with a R290X, most games run quite well on medium/high, as long as MSAA and HDAO aren't used.

I'm probably going to grab a 4K Samsung monitor soon. CF 290 is pure overkill for my current low res setup.
 

ShintaiDK

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Apr 22, 2012
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SoCs are on LP process so it doesn't steal from HP production, unless you mean TSMC is prioritizing the mass production and scaling of LP first before HP.

Either way we've seen this coming with the release of newer SKUs from both camps, still with Titan Z coming.

TSMC only got 1 processnode for the future. No LP or HP anymore.
 

Wild Thing

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As the process nodes get smaller and smaller,what happens when they get down to zero?o_O
Will they get down to 1 nano or so then decimal points of 1?
Or in other words...How low can Joe go?:p