Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[fskimospy]

What worries me is it doesn't seem to be making a dent in the polls and that means either of 3 things.

1. The polls are wrong
2. It's not yet November and the most telling poll is about 1 week before the election.
3. The people have already made their minds up and are not changing.

As said, the polls don't matter much right now. That being said if you DO still decide to care about the polls for some reason Biden has recently taken the lead.

Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the latest polls?

The Economist is tracking the contest to be America’s next president

www.economist.com

Oddly enough @gothuevos, normally a prolific poll watcher, has not mentioned this.

 

[Indus]

As said, the polls don't matter much right now. That being said if you DO still decide to care about the polls for some reason Biden has recently taken the lead.

Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the latest polls?

The Economist is tracking the contest to be America’s next president

www.economist.com

Oddly enough @gothuevos, normally a prolific poll watcher, has not mentioned this.

I was looking at my 30-45 and 45-65 graphic and worrying.

I feel like such an outlier as most people in my age group have their heads up their asses.

 

[Brainonska511]

As said, the polls don't matter much right now. That being said if you DO still decide to care about the polls for some reason Biden has recently taken the lead.

Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the latest polls?

The Economist is tracking the contest to be America’s next president

www.economist.com

Oddly enough @gothuevos, normally a prolific poll watcher, has not mentioned this.

Funny that we're missing the NYT front page headlines about these changing polls. It's as if the media is driving a negative narrative, and then playing a "who? me?" game when called out on it.

 

[fskimospy]

Funny that we're missing the NYT front page headlines about these changing polls. It's as if the media is driving a negative narrative, and then playing a "who? me?" game when called out on it.

I get it - and it's the audience's fault. People click on bad news more than good news, so all news is framed as bad.

 

[K1052]

Funny that we're missing the NYT front page headlines about these changing polls. It's as if the media is driving a negative narrative, and then playing a "who? me?" game when called out on it.

They're too busy churning out the next wave of "The crosstabs are bad for Biden" stories.

I dunno if it were me and the numbers I'm using said there was a historically large political realignment among several groups simultaneously that some questions about the surveys and how we're using them might be merited. I mean given that the political press has never gotten this wrong before and just quietly not mentioned how they f'd up.

 

[nakedfrog]

I am leery of polls in general. Who are they actually reaching, and how?

Land lines? Who has one except for grandma, and we know how she votes.
Cell phones? I do NOT answer my phone for non-contacts unless I'm expecting a call, because it's always someone saying "do you want to sell your property" or other sales garbage.
Email? Nope, I don't see any but maybe gmail is sending them to spam.

It is far out, and people largely aren't going to change their minds. I know a few "independents" who deliberately do not follow politics. They'll say shit around election time about voting for X because gas prices are high this week or dreck like that. Mushy middle ignorance, and/or "both parties are the same" foolishness, and it'll decide the election.

I got a call on my cell phone a couple weeks ago that seemed likely to be political polling, but it was just before a meeting and those take a while, so I had to pass. I answered one in the summer of 2020 and actually participated in that one.

 

[gothuevos]

As said, the polls don't matter much right now. That being said if you DO still decide to care about the polls for some reason Biden has recently taken the lead.

Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the latest polls?

The Economist is tracking the contest to be America’s next president

www.economist.com

Oddly enough @gothuevos, normally a prolific poll watcher, has not mentioned this.

Wait, so does it or does it not matter?

 

[fskimospy]

Wait, so does it or does it not matter?

I said specifically it does not matter.

You seem to think otherwise though so presumably you’re happy to see Biden surging into the lead.

Can you confirm?

 

[Roger Wilco]

Wait, so does it or does it not matter?

Bro, multiple people have already told you it doesn’t matter.

You can take a 72 hr break on the Imodium just to give your colon a breather. My condolences to your sphincter.

 

[APU_Fusion]

I said specifically it does not matter.

You seem to think otherwise though so presumably you’re happy to see Biden surging into the lead.

Can you confirm?

He won’t. He is either closet MAGAT or needs massive doses of Prozac

 

[gothuevos]

I said specifically it does not matter.

You seem to think otherwise though so presumably you’re happy to see Biden surging into the lead.

Can you confirm?

But you're telling me it doesn't matter either way.
I'll just wait until November to breathe easy. Or just not give a fuck at that point. I'm ready for the Balkanized States of America to begin.

 

[pmv]

He won’t. He is either closet MAGAT or needs massive doses of Prozac

I don't believe he's a Trumpkin. I suspect, like me, he just finds this waiting to be unbearable, and is filling it in with hyperventilation and anxiety. Personally I half-wish I could go into hibernation for about a year, until these things are clearer. Even with the Tories sustained dismal performance in the polls I can't feel safe about the next election result here, and the polling picture in the US is not anywhere near as clear cut as that.

I agree it's too early for those polls to say anything useful, but this is like waiting for the results of a biopsy of a suspicious mass.

 

[fskimospy]

But you're telling me it doesn't matter either way.
I'll just wait until November to breathe easy. Or just not give a fuck at that point. I'm ready for the Balkanized States of America to begin.

It just seems odd to be panicked by bad polls and ignore good ones. No?

 

[WelshBloke]

I don't believe he's a Trumpkin. I suspect, like me, he just finds this waiting to be unbearable, and is filling it in with hyperventilation and anxiety. Personally I half-wish I could go into hibernation for about a year, until these things are clearer. Even with the Tories sustained dismal performance in the polls I can't feel safe about the next election result here, and the polling picture in the US is not anywhere near as clear cut as that.

I agree it's too early for those polls to say anything useful, but this is like waiting for the results of a biopsy of a suspicious mass.

Just to make you feel slightly better about the UK the Tories have not made any gains in the polls in over a year, and rather astonishingly, they are going down recently. There seems to be a one to one loss to Remain. I kinda expected Remain to pick up some disenfranchised Labour voters as well and that they wouldn't make much of a difference to the over all results but it truly looks like the Tories are going to get destroyed!

 

[gothuevos]

It just seems odd to be panicked by bad polls and ignore good ones. No?

I'm taking your advice.

 

[manly]

If polls don't have predictive power yet, then we should stick with that.
Because I'm not so sure The Economist is the best source for aggregating U.S. polls to flatly claim Biden has "taken the lead." For one, they don't even bother to list which polls they are sourcing.

RCP has a very narrow race that hasn't shifted much in 3 months. More importantly, the limited polls in key battleground states aren't favorable. WI and PA are ties while the rest still lean Trump.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[Indus]

If polls don't have predictive power yet, then we should stick with that.
Because I'm not so sure The Economist is the best source for aggregating U.S. polls to flatly claim Biden has "taken the lead." For one, they don't even bother to list which polls they are sourcing.

RCP has a very narrow race that hasn't shifted much in 3 months. More importantly, the limited polls in key battleground states aren't favorable. WI and PA are ties while the rest still lean Trump.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

People get the government they deserve.

If they want Trump and the right wingers to run riot.. that's what'll happen!

Look on youtube, look on twitter, look on tik tok, look on the news.. everywhere you see migrants vs border patrol, criminals vs cops. May not be real but it sure is having an effect on the polls!

It's kinda like the laziness of I don't wanna research cooking, here's $5 and give me a well done burger.. i.e. I want the problem solved, I don't care how crazy or unconstitutional it is!

 

[brycejones]

But you're telling me it doesn't matter either way.
I'll just wait until November to breathe easy. Or just not give a fuck at that point. I'm ready for the Balkanized States of America to begin.

No matter what you find a way to shit your diaper. What brand do you buy? The company would probably be a safe investment.

 

[iRONic]

Everyone deserves minority rule. For sure.

JFC…

 

[Indus]

Every idiot deserves minority rule. For sure.

JFC…

FTFY and very true!

 

[MrSquished]

gothuevos is a crazy sky is falling guy.

This election is most definitely winnable. Polls now don't mean much.

What I find sad is that we do have to actually really worry about the election because the Democrats couldn't be bothered to put up a better candidate. Trump is evil and the fact that Democrats couldn't do better is really putting a lot of unnecessary stress on people.

 

[fskimospy]

If polls don't have predictive power yet, then we should stick with that.
Because I'm not so sure The Economist is the best source for aggregating U.S. polls to flatly claim Biden has "taken the lead." For one, they don't even bother to list which polls they are sourcing.

RCP has a very narrow race that hasn't shifted much in 3 months. More importantly, the limited polls in key battleground states aren't favorable. WI and PA are ties while the rest still lean Trump.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

RCP is basically the worst poll aggregator you can find.

 

[Indus]

the Democrats couldn't be bothered to put up a better candidate

That's the problem every time with dems.. they're a big tent party.. so what candidate best unites em all?

It gets into an establishment vs outsider most of the time..

Things that make perfect sense get veto'ed by the establishment like more judges to balance extreme scotus etc.

 

[manly]

Everyone deserves minority rule. For sure.

JFC…

He's got some of the dumbest takes in this subforum; it takes some real chops to compete with the few remaining RWNJs.

@gothuevos is a negative Nancy, but I don't think he's a moron. He could just be trolling for all I know.

RCP is basically the worst poll aggregator you can find.

Funny how superior your sources always are. I actually don't know much about RCP, but they list the polls they source. The Economist is a respected British magazine, but we have no idea what their methodology here is.

538 seems to be less relevant after Nate Silver left; I don't see any presidential polling like in the past. They do have Biden's approval polling, which is up a couple ticks this month. They did publish a recent article about how it's too early to care all that much about polling:

Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up

Early polls show President Joe Biden losing to former President Donald Trump. Does that matter?

abcnews.go.com

 

[linkgoron]

If polls don't have predictive power yet, then we should stick with that.
Because I'm not so sure The Economist is the best source for aggregating U.S. polls to flatly claim Biden has "taken the lead." For one, they don't even bother to list which polls they are sourcing.

RCP has a very narrow race that hasn't shifted much in 3 months. More importantly, the limited polls in key battleground states aren't favorable. WI and PA are ties while the rest still lean Trump.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

RCP failed miserably in the mid-term elections and were also very biased in 2020. They were extremely arrogant about their methodology on twitter, and IIRC had to delete some extremely dumb tweets afterwards. Here's their 2022 projection:


IIRC they removed pollsters that were supposedly left biased from their average, and then afterwards still adjusted their polling results as if their average still had bias.