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2022 US midterms election watch party/thread

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gothuevos said:
Elaborate.
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www.cnn.com

Hear Jordan Klepper describe what surprised him about interviewing election deniers | CNN Business

Ahead of the midterm elections, "The Daily Show with Trevor Noah" contributor Jordan Klepper joins CNN This Morning to discuss his interviews with election deniers across the country.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
"The most beautiful thing I ever saw, thousands maybe a million people gathered, it was a peaceful rally (January 6th)"... I didn't see any violence, it wasn't what happened that day.
...I was surprised how many people won't accept what is going to happen in this election, "if the election result isn't what I like, I won't accept it"

A grand total of 40% of republicans are at least "somewhat" confident that the votes will be accurately counted in this election, 60+% partially or fully believe the lies they've been fed by Trump/Fox/most Republican candidates

Edit: and this trend continues to worsen. At current trendline, if Republicans don't sweep every single office in 2024, somewhere around 70-75% of Republicans will believe it was only because of fraud
 
Fulton County (Georgia) fires 2 poll workers 15 minutes before voting starts, they refused to leave & had to be escorted out by police
www.wsbtv.com

This website is unavailable in your location. – WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta

www.wsbtv.com www.wsbtv.com
While those 2 super-MAGA election deniers were booted for their comments overheard at the election site (apparently they were planning to video the election to catch all the non-existent election fraudsters - while video/photo of voters is in fact a crime in Georgia) & their prior Jan 6 social media showing they were active participants at the insurrection, there are too many more election deniers to even count now embedded throughout the election system
 
Turnout through mid-day across Florida looks absolutely horrendous for Democrats, this is Republican+15/+20 type super-sweep territory
1667938064256.png
 
Homerboy said:
WAY too early to start looking at things like this.
You know who votes early in the day? Old people (likley GOPers).
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Late day turnout along the entire southeastern Florida coast may be impacted by rain bands from TS Nicole. Hey DeSantis, is it illegal to hand out umbrellas in line yet???
 
gothuevos said:
What am I missing in that first graph? Seems like Miami-Dade is 37% vs 38% turnout (counting mail in, early and voting day tallies). Where are they getting the 15% GOP lead?
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I didn't see it at first glance either. And (for now) didn't spend too much time trying to see it. Early poll numbers are basically meaningless... until they're not
 
gothuevos said:
What am I missing in that first graph? Seems like Miami-Dade is 37% vs 38% turnout (counting mail in, early and voting day tallies). Where are they getting the 15% GOP lead?
Click to expand...
Just to be confusing, the graph is not the same as the comment - first graphic is the total vote count so far, including early voting (not % turnout), so Miami-Dade at 37 vs. 38 in actual voters is ugly when Dems have a 130k (~10%) edge in registered voters in the county
 
Dave_5k said:
Just to be confusing, the graph is not the same as the comment - first graphic is the total vote count so far, including early voting (not % turnout), so Miami-Dade at 37 vs. 38 in actual voters is ugly when Dems have a 130k (~10%) edge in registered voters in the county
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But why does this matter, not like Dems expected to win Florida. Looking at projections, they’re only expected to win 8 of the 28 house seats. And no chance in senator and governor races.
 
fskimospy said:
Guys you will drive yourselves nuts with early voting data that probably means nothing.

At least until the polls close you’re wasting your time.
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100% agreed. Not to mention, MOST races are going to be pretty damned close even when every last ballot is counted. So worrying with HOURS left to go (if not 1/2 a day) seems pointless.
 
voted around 9 - 9:30, no waiting in my locale, was offered a republican voter guide outside as I was walking in, turned it down, shold have grabbed it as some of the lower down local elections had no affiliations listed and could have used as a guide for who not to vote for.
 
eelw said:
But why does this matter, not like Dems expected to win Florida. Looking at projections, they’re only expected to win 8 of the 28 house seats. And no chance in senator and governor races.
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Only really matters as it pertains to more national enthusiasm. Florida is so hugely gerrymandered, that there are precisely 0 swing House districts (Republicans were expected to get a bit more than ~52% of statewide vote seen last election, which gives them a bit over 70% of both U.S. congressional districts and state house seats)
 
The key to this year's victory for Democrats is going to be and has always been women and younger voters. As long as the base comes out in decent numbers, women and younger voters can overwhelm the fascists at the polls.

This is one thing a lot of polls may not be getting right. I mean they might have everything right but turnout of those two demographics, plus African Americans, can change the game.
 
eelw said:
But why does this matter, not like Dems expected to win Florida. Looking at projections, they’re only expected to win 8 of the 28 house seats. And no chance in senator and governor races.
Click to expand...
Does this even count mail in ballots? I mean the data can go any which way with so many factors at play
 
MrSquished said:
Does this even count mail in ballots? I mean the data can go any which way with so many factors at play
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Yep, this includes all mail-in ballots, early voting in person, and same day voting (with ~15-30 minute lag), except for I think Orange county not participating in same-day stats. So probably accounts for like 70% of final vote count already, but only by registered party, not actually showing how they voted this time, and lots of independents/not party affiliated in Florida.

Rubio & DeSantis were expected to win by ~10 points anyway, this will just make them ~20 point winners if accurate & holds up.

The bellwether to watch as results come in tonight in Florida is the 23rd district, Miami, which is an expected Dem+10 House seat. If Republicans take this one, they are well on route to House super-majority. Also, Florida is pretty fast at counting, will likely be one of the first states to report results tonight, they had 90% counted by 9pm eastern in 2020 election.
 
Hmm disconcerting exit polls done by CNN. Demographics. 76% were white. 40% college educated/34% not. 35% R/34% D/31 I. 35% over 65. Less than 10% under 29
 
MrSquished said:
I see a countdown on CNN that the first polls close at 6pm. how the fuck is it allowed to close polls at 6pm. And then multiple states are 7pm. Polls should be open until 9pm - period.
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Just think about Hawaii, where I think that their polls can close after a clear winner already emerges.
 
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