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norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
179
106
Here are the 2017 political predictions from Caspian Report and Iam Bremmer.

Caspian Report is predicting Trump focusing mostly on destroying shit, NAFTA staying around, few illegal immigrants actually getting deported, and Trump probably getting impeached if he fucks up too much of the economy, particularly the massive GDP that Texas and California apparently trade with Mexico.

The Middle East getting even worse than it already is, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict resuming, the Syrian Civil War not getting any more peaceful, ISIS members returning to their countries of origin, Turkey trespassing even more in both Iraq and Syria, the Iran Deal probably staying around unless Trump wants to fuck shit up and get no return, and the current cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia rapidly and greatly expanding into a 2 front war with Turkey and Iran now going at each others throats.

Europe has a ton of shit going on, with major elections in many if not most of the European countries, with populist and fascist condidates in strong contention, with the French Election potentially being one of if not the most important European election this year, with La Pen and Francois Fillon being strong contenders, Italy has an upcoming election in 2018 resulting from the resignation of Matteo Renzi after the defeat of the Italian Referendum, but the Italian Supreme Court is likely to rule favorable on new legislation to change the Italian Electoral Law which will shut out Beppe Grillo and his Five Star Movement, the Dutch Election might see some strong showing from Geert Wilders and the PVV, but the other more centrist parties are probably going to form a coalition, and shut him out, and Merkel is probably going to win her reelection, and the character of the 2017 German Election and any response from Merkel will probably be dependant upon the results from the earlier European elections in 2017.

Caspian Report still hasnt made the video for the 2nd part of his European Analysis, so hopefully that will be released soon, and it covers potentially the hottest flashpoint in the world today, Eastern and Northern Europe.

Iam Bremmer and his friend talk about 2016 and 2017, which they term the Geopolitical Recession, and they consider it just as important as the 2008 Economic Recession, and they consider this the worst year of geopolitical recession since 1945. They talk about what they think are the top 10 geopolitical risks of 2017, and you obviously know what country is the biggest political risk of 2017. They also expect Xi Jinping to be very important this year, which should be obvious to even drunk squirrels.

Because of the way media is apparently being handled, I will have to throw the videos down below.
 

desura

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2013
4,627
129
101
Wonder who does the Caspian report. I think he is a Turk.

I've already said my predictions before, but I'll say them again.

1. Trump unleashes INS to deport people. INS currently is being held back by Obama, so it is very trivial to just set them loose on doing their jobs.
1a. INS deportations also encourage "self-deportation". Overall I expect at least 5 million people, mostly Mexican, to leave the United States by the end of the first term.
1b. There will likely be a highly publicized standoff of a deportable family who resists the INS. This will draw protestors and the Trump administration will have to do an Elian Gonzales like raid to pick them up and deport them.

2. Effective Muslim ban by way of increased security scrutiny of migrants from Muslim countries.

3. There probably will be a Paris-level attack by Islamic terrorists on US soil in Trump's first term.

4. Trump may end up defying the GOP Congress and vetoing one of their hack and slash budgets, especially if they reduce entitlement spending.

5. 2018 most people expect further GOP gains. That combined with redistricting in 2020, and full GOP control of the courts, legislature, and presidency, likely will mean entrenched GOP rule for the foreseeable future. We may get another Democratic president in 2020 or 2024, but I don't see the legislature or courts going Democrat absent a disaster like a war with Iran.

6. Hopefully Michael Flynn is marginalized and fired early in Trump's administration. He is the single worst member of Trump's administration IMO.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
179
106
Wonder who does the Caspian report. I think he is a Turk.

I've already said my predictions before, but I'll say them again.

1. Trump unleashes INS to deport people. INS currently is being held back by Obama, so it is very trivial to just set them loose on doing their jobs.
1a. INS deportations also encourage "self-deportation". Overall I expect at least 5 million people, mostly Mexican, to leave the United States by the end of the first term.
1b. There will likely be a highly publicized standoff of a deportable family who resists the INS. This will draw protestors and the Trump administration will have to do an Elian Gonzales like raid to pick them up and deport them.

2. Effective Muslim ban by way of increased security scrutiny of migrants from Muslim countries.

3. There probably will be a Paris-level attack by Islamic terrorists on US soil in Trump's first term.

4. Trump may end up defying the GOP Congress and vetoing one of their hack and slash budgets, especially if they reduce entitlement spending.

5. 2018 most people expect further GOP gains. That combined with redistricting in 2020, and full GOP control of the courts, legislature, and presidency, likely will mean entrenched GOP rule for the foreseeable future. We may get another Democratic president in 2020 or 2024, but I don't see the legislature or courts going Democrat absent a disaster like a war with Iran.

6. Hopefully Michael Flynn is marginalized and fired early in Trump's administration. He is the single worst member of Trump's administration IMO.
I would love to hear your theories on who Caspian Report is and where he is from.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
179
106
1. Trump unleashes INS to deport people. INS currently is being held back by Obama, so it is very trivial to just set them loose on doing their jobs.
1a. INS deportations also encourage "self-deportation". Overall I expect at least 5 million people, mostly Mexican, to leave the United States by the end of the first term.
1b. There will likely be a highly publicized standoff of a deportable family who resists the INS. This will draw protestors and the Trump administration will have to do an Elian Gonzales like raid to pick them up and deport them.
Going to war with the agricultural business probably isnt the easiest or wisest thing for Trump to do. Then again, Trump isnt exactly very wise.

2. Effective Muslim ban by way of increased security scrutiny of migrants from Muslim countries.
He might be able to impose an effective ban on Muslim refugees, but he wont get any actual literal ban, and I doubt he can stop high skilled workers from coming to the US from countries like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emerites.

3. There probably will be a Paris-level attack by Islamic terrorists on US soil in Trump's first term.
Whos going to do it and how are they going to pull it off? The Paris attacks were entirely planned and operated from within France and Belgium, and the US isnt exactly part of something like the Schlegan Area. You are far more likely to see local lone wolf or small cell attacks like San Bernadeno, Orlando, or the recent truck hit and runs in France and Germany.

4. Trump may end up defying the GOP Congress and vetoing one of their hack and slash budgets, especially if they reduce entitlement spending.
He will have an absolute blast with yet another government shutdown.

5. 2018 most people expect further GOP gains. That combined with redistricting in 2020, and full GOP control of the courts, legislature, and presidency, likely will mean entrenched GOP rule for the foreseeable future. We may get another Democratic president in 2020 or 2024, but I don't see the legislature or courts going Democrat absent a disaster like a war with Iran.
Im not even going to bother with this since it isnt anywhere close to being known, and it certainly isnt something that someone can claim is any type of certainty.

6. Hopefully Michael Flynn is marginalized and fired early in Trump's administration. He is the single worst member of Trump's administration IMO.
Sure Flynn is horrendous, but how are Bannon or Sessions any less horrendous?
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
27,545
13,284
136
higher oil/gas prices
richer Putin/Russia
more instability in eastern europe
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
11,987
205
106
It's going to be whatever suits the purposes of Israel and Western elites. What else is new?

Here we have the Kushner/Trump regime coming into power promising changes. I doubt the changes will be that great but I do know that whatever Israel does and want will be met with great support from the Kushner/Trump. Remember that speech Trump gave to AIPAC? Also, Trump's ambassador to Israel is a Zionist with so-called hardline views as are others in his regime. Kushner himself is a member of AIPAC.

Let's not forget Pence. This guy is the voice of the many so-called Christian Conservatives in America who love Israel.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
62,375
15,671
136
I expect Trump and the Republicans will make a move to shift the federal workforce from the current merit-based competitive system to a political patronage system.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
11,987
205
106

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
2017 only?

1. Lifting sanctions with Russia
2. Increased deportations of illegal immigrants
3. Public messages of LGBT support/ambivalence from Trump while letting conservative states do whatever they feel like
4. Flipside for marijuana and "green" states, I think if Sessions tries to get the DEA hyped up Trump'll reign him in
5. Turning the DOJ strongly pro-cop, ending most Obama-era investigations of police forces
6. Trying more public works jobs, particularly in Rust Belt states, at the expense of anything else
7. Obamacare rebranded as Trumpcare, with maybe a few changes/fuck-ups that will be quietly reverted in 2018/2019
8. No major foreign policy conflicts involving China or the Middle-East, save that for later

Although the first one is the only one I feel particularly confident about.

EDIT: Oh and corporate tax rate cuts.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
179
106
It's going to be whatever suits the purposes of Israel and Western elites. What else is new?

Here we have the Kushner/Trump regime coming into power promising changes. I doubt the changes will be that great but I do know that whatever Israel does and want will be met with great support from the Kushner/Trump. Remember that speech Trump gave to AIPAC? Also, Trump's ambassador to Israel is a Zionist with so-called hardline views as are others in his regime. Kushner himself is a member of AIPAC.

Let's not forget Pence. This guy is the voice of the many so-called Christian Conservatives in America who love Israel.
Yeah, honestly fucking up the current Israeli-Palestinian situation is the very last fucking thing we needed with everywhere in the surrounding countrysides in absolute desolation right now.

I suppose Lebanon has been doing pretty well like Israel and Jordan have, but if we have war flare up again and another Intifada starts, then I expect Lebanon will probably hit the shitpile. Who knows if Jordan can stay peaceful and secure, but they are a Liberal Monarchy with an advanced Western tech level military. The bulk of the population is apparently Palestinian however. Doesnt mean they will try to overthrow the Monarchy, and in fact they might do exactly the opposite, but its not going to be favorable to Israel. Egypt is in the shits right now, and Sisi is an absolute moron, hes made his country into a cesspool, they are in a depression, and Saudi Arabia is trying to extort some islands in the Red Sea from Egypt in return for them paying off the bills and debts of the Egyptian government. But Saudi Arabia isnt much good either, the oil economy is deteriorating under their feet, the war in Yemen is an absolute fucking disaster, and general Saudi society is far more unstable than it seems. Plus we got that ISIS/Jihadist insurgency in the Sinai desert.
 

desura

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2013
4,627
129
101
Israel situation yeah may be bad. We might see another Gaza War. Fundamental problem is that the land cannot support so many people as it is, not to mention the numerous refugees who want to go there.

Abbas will likely die. And then after that, I dunno. The PLO will probably collapse and will refuse to help Israel maintain order in the territories. Then we get riots. Gaza conflict could be contained, but West Bank is where the real grit is.

I wish we could just do like Pontious Pilot and wash our hands of the entire thing. I really am not interested in carrying their water for them, which is what we do in the USA when we give Israel so much aid.
 
Feb 4, 2009
31,114
11,540
136
I predict that I won't get so tired of winning that I get bored with it.

I do hope I'm wrong and I will gladly apologize if I get bored with winning.
 

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