2008 Democratic Race: By the Numbers (Updated)

[Stunt]

Edit: Updated with Wisconsin (swing state) results; Obama continues to dominate key swing state primaries. Ohio is the next one to watch...there's no way Texas is going blue in the general.

With the endorsement of Romney, and the loss of Huckabee in Virginia; McCain has the nomination locked down. I want to focus now on the Democratic nomination as it looks like we are in for the long haul and it will all come down to the superdelegates come convention time. I am not a big fan of how the system works, but am happy to hear most say they will follow the will of the people; whoever wins the popular vote delegates.

I have done a little study which I would like people to consider, and would help guide the superdelegates to the ultimate decision of who to support. First assumption is that Florida and Michigan results are not included; Obama did not campaign there, none of the democrats were supposed to, the DNC said they would not be using the delegates from those states. Second assumption is that all votes for Edwards before he dropped out were given to Clinton and Obama equally.

We all know there are Red and Blue states and we are never going to get away from it in today's politics. Texas will never give their electoral votes to either Clinton or Obama and Illinois will never vote for McCain. You can see from these campaign spots in the 2004 election between Bush and Kerry...they didn't leave the swing states. Neither campaigned in Texas or Illnois, New York or Alabama. The swing states is what it all comes down to and to win you need your candidate to win in those states. Not Clinton winning in Texas and Obama in Idaho.

What I have done is took the popular vote, weighted it by the number of electoral votes in all the potential swing states and will continue to update the most electable candidate for the 2008 election. Momentum, positions, appeal/delegates in Red states; are all second fiddle to support in swing states, unless someone wants to argue this fact.

Arkansas - 6 (70% Clinton)
Colorado - 9 (67% Obama)
Iowa - 7 (57% Obama)
Minnesota - 10 (66% Obama)
Missouri - 11 (49% Obama)
Nevada - 5 (53% Clinton)
New Hampshire - 4 (52% Clinton)
New Mexico - 5 (49% Clinton)
Tennesse - 11 (54% Clinton)
Virginia - 13 (64% Obama)
Indiana - 11
Kentucky - 8
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
West Virginia - 5
Wisconsin - 10 (58% Obama)
Florida - 27 (n/a)
Michigan - 17 (n/a)

Where Clinton based on these weightings will get 41 electoral votes
And Obama based on these weightings will get 50 electoral votes

The rest of the swing states should be closely watched and should be a clear indicator of electability between these two candidates.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Wow, good work.

It'd be nice to see both candidates' scores in each contest; ie. not just 52% Clinton in NH, but also what Obama got. If it's farily close, then it probably wouldn't matter much when the general election comes; if it's a wide disparity (like Arkansas or Colorado), then maybe it would actually have an impact.

 

[Stunt]

Edit: Updated with Wisconsin (swing state) results; Obama continues to dominate key swing state primaries. Ohio is the next one to watch...there's no way Texas is going blue in the general.

 

[Lemon law]

It used to be said that there was no way Texas would ever go Republican in the general election. Following disaster Presidents, convention wisdoms of often go out the window.