The Dems seem to be licking their chops in anticipation of the major elections next year. I have to wonder if this attitude is just a bit delusional... but I also know there's some justification for such thinking.
The Reps are at a low point right now, but I would argue it's not as low as many of the pundits place them. I believe too much is being read into the recent state and local elections. Yes it was better news for the Dems than the Reps, yet they didn't really GAIN anything... just simply holding onto what they had. I suppose when faced with recent history, that might indeed be news to celebrate for the Dems
A big question is, will the Reps get their act in order in 1 year's time? That will determine a lot, although frankly, it's hard to see a major turnaround within that relatively short period of time. Iraq probably won't be cause for poll boosts. The economy is doing very well, so it's doubtful there'll be any additional economic election boost. Where will the Reps get their boost?
IMO, there will be no boost unless the Right regains their principles and there nerve. Although I hope this might happen, I'm not optimistic. When times are tough, there's often a tendency to veer towards the mythical "center", but that's not the way Reps win elections. They need to motivate their base, as they have done before with the social conservatives, but this time they need to energize the economic conservatives. This would take discipline and be somewhat painful... which is why I'm not sure they are up to the challenge.
It will be interesting to see if the Dems can capitalize. Just being an alternative could give the Dems wins. But from the looks of things right now, they seem believe that beating up Reps is sufficient (which is the easiest strategy, but the one least likely to work), rather than offering a real agenda change as Reps did with the Contract With America.
This leads to another question. There are deep fissures within the Dem party, so I have to wonder, IS a real agenda even possible? Wait a minute... is an agenda even needed? Sometimes in politics, it's good enough to just be the other guy. The American people sometimes tire of the same people governing and want a change, even if it's just a change of person, or party.
My prediction is moderate gain in the Senate (maybe +1 Dem) and the House (maybe +4 Dem), but nothing major, and Reps will maintain control. The simple fact is, there's only so many seat up, and of those, only a few plan to be competitive. That's just the political reality. I think we'll have to wait until 08 to really see any significant shifts.
What do you say?
The Reps are at a low point right now, but I would argue it's not as low as many of the pundits place them. I believe too much is being read into the recent state and local elections. Yes it was better news for the Dems than the Reps, yet they didn't really GAIN anything... just simply holding onto what they had. I suppose when faced with recent history, that might indeed be news to celebrate for the Dems
A big question is, will the Reps get their act in order in 1 year's time? That will determine a lot, although frankly, it's hard to see a major turnaround within that relatively short period of time. Iraq probably won't be cause for poll boosts. The economy is doing very well, so it's doubtful there'll be any additional economic election boost. Where will the Reps get their boost?
IMO, there will be no boost unless the Right regains their principles and there nerve. Although I hope this might happen, I'm not optimistic. When times are tough, there's often a tendency to veer towards the mythical "center", but that's not the way Reps win elections. They need to motivate their base, as they have done before with the social conservatives, but this time they need to energize the economic conservatives. This would take discipline and be somewhat painful... which is why I'm not sure they are up to the challenge.
It will be interesting to see if the Dems can capitalize. Just being an alternative could give the Dems wins. But from the looks of things right now, they seem believe that beating up Reps is sufficient (which is the easiest strategy, but the one least likely to work), rather than offering a real agenda change as Reps did with the Contract With America.
This leads to another question. There are deep fissures within the Dem party, so I have to wonder, IS a real agenda even possible? Wait a minute... is an agenda even needed? Sometimes in politics, it's good enough to just be the other guy. The American people sometimes tire of the same people governing and want a change, even if it's just a change of person, or party.
My prediction is moderate gain in the Senate (maybe +1 Dem) and the House (maybe +4 Dem), but nothing major, and Reps will maintain control. The simple fact is, there's only so many seat up, and of those, only a few plan to be competitive. That's just the political reality. I think we'll have to wait until 08 to really see any significant shifts.
What do you say?
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