$200 1TB SSDs (predictions)?

[spandexninja]

With $600 1TB SSDs and $(???) 2TB (2.5") SSDs coming this year, I had the thought that I might be able to replace all of my mechanical drives with SSDs in the not-so-far future.

-will SSD prices drop this year as much as they did in 2012 (though I noticed that the prices stopped dropping in Q4...)?
-do you think that more SSDs will change to TLC nand (like the Samsung 840)?
-when do you think we will see 1TB SSDs for $200?

 

[Hulk]

Okay I'll bite. December 2014.

 

[OlafSicky]

Not this year that's for sure I say 2016

 

[ND40oz]

I just want to know where the $600 one is, the M500 was announced almost two months ago.

 

[Hellhammer]

I just want to know where the $600 one is, the M500 was announced almost two months ago.

Yeah, but Micron said it won't ship until Q2'13. That's the downside of CES, lots of stuff gets announced but nothing ships until a few months later at the earliest.

 

[VirtualLarry]

As SDD capacities increase, I would like to see commensurate warranty increases as well. After all, larger sizes, means longer overall lifetime for the NAND bank(s). Assuming that the SSD doesn't brick, which seems to be the most likely reason for an SSD dying these days.

I would love to be able to invest $600 in a 1TB SSD, and have it last (and be warrantied) for 10 years, possibly more.

Edit: Without that warranty increase though, I would have a hard time dropping that kind of coin on an SSD that could brick on me a few years out, and then I would be out that dough.

 

[spandexninja]

I wouldn't mind paying triple the $/gb for a 1TB SSD even if the warranty was the standard 3 years. A lot of mechanical drives only have a 1 year warranty these days, and SSDs that haven't failed after 1 year will probably never fail at all (while HDDs become more likely to fail with every passing year, and will certainly fail eventually).

I live in an area with lots of small tremors and occasional earthquakes, and my heart jumps out of my chest every time my house shakes while my hard drives are writing. If I can replace everything with SSDs then I just have to attach my computer to a UPS and never worry again.

Hoping to see 1TB for $200 by 2016.

 

[randomrogue]

What kind of prices are you even using? Hard drive prices are still more expensive today than before the floods. We went from gouging to a bit expensive. They haven't dropped like they used to at all.

1TB drives are $70-$80
2TB drives are $100-$110

However since these prices are reasonable enough we can use this as a starting point. I say this despite buying 5TB of hard drive space right before the flood for $187.

If we went with a 20% price drop a year your 1TB SSD would go:

2013: $600
2014: $480
2015: $384
2016: $307
2017: $245
2018: $196

40% drop?

2013: $600
2014: $360
2015: $216

Worse yet normal hard drive capacities will be much bigger and still cost around $100 or half the price. Your media files in 3-5 years will take up more space.

They need to literally butcher the price, and do it quickly, for people to bite outside of the enthusiast community.

 

[lehtv]

I would guess 2015 at the earliest, maybe as late as 2018.

(See what I did there?)

 

[hhhd1]

around 2016.

The prices of SSDs have been decreasing very slowly, not as fast as I would have hoped.

 

[Hellhammer]

I would say 2015. Two years ago, the price per GB was pretty much $2/GB (e.g. Crucial m4 MSRPs were $500 for 256GB and $1000 for 512GB). Now we are at ~$200 for 256GB and ~$400 for 512GB. Assuming the same pace in price drops, the prices should drop another 60% in two years, which would make 1TB around $200 by the end of 2015.

As SDD capacities increase, I would like to see commensurate warranty increases as well. After all, larger sizes, means longer overall lifetime for the NAND bank(s). Assuming that the SSD doesn't brick, which seems to be the most likely reason for an SSD dying these days.

Consumer electronics rarely carry warranty of over 5 years. 3 years is very typical and that's what most hard drives have too, despite their much larger capacity.

Worse yet normal hard drive capacities will be much bigger and still cost around $100 or half the price. Your media files in 3-5 years will take up more space.

They need to literally butcher the price, and do it quickly, for people to bite outside of the enthusiast community.

I think we are seeing a change in media consumption behavior too. Hoarding media is no longer necessary with streaming services such as Netflix and Spotify being available, so people no longer need terabytes of storage. Now, I don't think those services are anywhere close to perfect (yet) but they definitely eliminate the need for tons of storage for many consumers.

Look at tablets and smartphones for instance. The majority only have 8-16GB (tablets maybe 32GB) of storage even though 64GB has been available for years and 128GB is now available too. Hence people have to rely on streaming services because even 64GB isn't a lot when it comes to media, but with streaming all the content is available on any device. We are more and more moving towards a model where people consume media on multiple devices and streaming works much better with that model since syncing won't be necessary and there are no space constraints. I know bandwidth/data caps present some issues but the issues persist with downloading as well (and physical media isn't getting any more popular).

I can definitely see 512GB, even 256GB, being enough for most consumers. After all, a 16GB iPad is enough for them.

 

[randomrogue]

I think we are seeing a change in media consumption behavior too. Hoarding media is no longer necessary with streaming services such as Netflix and Spotify being available, so people no longer need terabytes of storage. Now, I don't think those services are anywhere close to perfect (yet) but they definitely eliminate the need for tons of storage for many consumers.

Look at tablets and smartphones for instance. The majority only have 8-16GB (tablets maybe 32GB) of storage even though 64GB has been available for years and 128GB is now available too. Hence people have to rely on streaming services because even 64GB isn't a lot when it comes to media, but with streaming all the content is available on any device. We are more and more moving towards a model where people consume media on multiple devices and streaming works much better with that model since syncing won't be necessary and there are no space constraints. I know bandwidth/data caps present some issues but the issues persist with downloading as well (and physical media isn't getting any more popular).

I can definitely see 512GB, even 256GB, being enough for most consumers. After all, a 16GB iPad is enough for them.

36MP+ Digital image raw files, 4K movies, etc. Today you need about 9Mbps of bandwidth free to stream HD movies so a home connection a few Mbps above that is needed. To stream 4K you'll need more. Hopefully compression keeps pace.

 

[Ketchup]

Worse yet normal hard drive capacities will be much bigger and still cost around $100 or half the price. Your media files in 3-5 years will take up more space.

Since we are speculating, I am going to spec that I don't see this happening. What I foresee happening in the next couple years (for the home-use market anyway) is standard hard drives stagnating in size, and moving towards being external only. SSDs, as the continue to increase in size, decrease in cost, and increase in reliability, will take over the market.

The commercial/business market, in my mind, is more of a mystery. I could see it going the same direction, but taking a longer period of time. Then again, I could see it viewing SSDs as a less reliable item, and waiting a decade or so to make the change.

One thing is clear to me. We WILL see the change you are describing spandexninja, but I am not going to even guess a time table on that.

 

[Hellhammer]

36MP+ Digital image raw files, 4K movies, etc. Today you need about 9Mbps of bandwidth free to stream HD movies so a home connection a few Mbps above that is needed. To stream 4K you'll need more. Hopefully compression keeps pace.

I wasn't talking about tech enthusiasts. How many average Joes shoot 36MP RAW images and have a 4K TV? Even if we go two years forward, the number won't be dramatically bigger. 4K TVs are definitely coming but people have been saying that for the last two years. It will be at least a few more years until 4K TVs can be considered consumer-grade (<$1000).

Besides, the majority of PCs are now laptops and are limited to a single 2.5" bay. Even if the capacity increased to 2TB for 2.5" HDs, that's still not going to be nowhere near the capacity that someone who shoots 36MP RAWs or hoards 4K movies would need. Hence you'll have to go the external route (or desktop) anyway, which gives you the option to run SSDs and HDs.

Again, I'm talking about the masses here because they pretty much dictate the market. Enthusiasts and geeks are their own category but nobody is taking away their hard drives. I honestly just don't see why average consumers would need terabytes of internal storage.

 

[zephyrprime]

We would need to advance 1.3 process nodes to reach that level so I would say 3 years from now. By that time, resistive ram will probably be available for early adopters.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

What I don't get is why HDD sizes are stagnating. As SDD prices come down, the HDD makers are pretty soon going to have no argument for their products, if they don't increase capacity.

Some would say there's no market for larger hard drives, but I disagree. If there was a reasonably-priced 10 TB hard drive out there right now, I'd buy it.

 

[spandexninja]

We would need to advance 1.3 process nodes to reach that level so I would say 3 years from now.

What is that?

 

[Ketchup]

What I don't get is why HDD sizes are stagnating. As SDD prices come down, the HDD makers are pretty soon going to have no argument for their products, if they don't increase capacity.

Some would say there's no market for larger hard drives, but I disagree. If there was a reasonably-priced 10 TB hard drive out there right now, I'd buy it.

You (read we) make such a small percentage of the market, there is no way we are going to drive down prices, and up capacity.

As the market for SSD gets stronger and for physical hard disks get smaller, expect to see all those manufacturers switching over.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

You (read we) make such a small percentage of the market, there is no way we are going to drive down prices, and up capacity.

As the market for SSD gets stronger and for physical hard disks get smaller, expect to see all those manufacturers switching over.

I don't think so.

The core technologies are completely different. Very little that, say, Western Digital does well, translates well into SSDs.

There will always be a market for storage that is bigger but cheaper per GB. The drive makers, for some reason, have just stalled out on increasing capacities. They've barely budged for years, and at exactly the wrong time.

I agree that we are a small market -- but enterprise storage is not. We are going to need more and more room for multimedia and bigger databases and so forth, and for cost reasons, much of it will stay on HDDs if they keep the cost equation under control.

 

[philipma1957]

I don't think so.

The core technologies are completely different. Very little that, say, Western Digital does well, translates well into SSDs.

There will always be a market for storage that is bigger but cheaper per GB. The drive makers, for some reason, have just stalled out on increasing capacities. They've barely budged for years, and at exactly the wrong time.

I agree that we are a small market -- but enterprise storage is not. We are going to need more and more room for multimedia and bigger databases and so forth, and for cost reasons, much of it will stay on HDDs if they keep the cost equation under control.

Yeah I have to agree with you on enterprise storage . If the cloud and streaming become what the average consumer uses business will need tons and tons of large storage hdds. 5tb hdds and up may not be in a normal homeowners setup, but plenty of cloud streamer providers will need it.

 

[greenhawk]

What I don't get is why HDD sizes are stagnating. As SDD prices come down, the HDD makers are pretty soon going to have no argument for their products, if they don't increase capacity.

I think it has more to do with the HDD manufactures wanting to keep a card up their sleave so that when SSD's do become a issue, they have something to release to regain market share. It also allows them to milk the current tech for as long as they can as I would think they can see the writting on the wall 10 years out.

besides, I do not think large internal drives is what the general consumer wants, they want large external ones to back up their laptops ect

 

[Ketchup]

I don't think so.

The core technologies are completely different. Very little that, say, Western Digital does well, translates well into SSDs.

Yes, they are completely different. But considering the rate of sales in SSDs, which are no doubt affecting sales of "traditional" hard drives, many companies will end up having to switch over or fail.

Cloud is great, and we will most likely be headed more and more in that direction, but it is also going to be limiting when it comes to manufacturers of traditional hard drives. Once a business decides on a manufacturer for storage, the others will be pretty much SOL on that whole deal.

 

[ND40oz]

Yeah, but Micron said it won't ship until Q2'13. That's the downside of CES, lots of stuff gets announced but nothing ships until a few months later at the earliest.

I thought Micron wasn't specific with a release date, but it was believed to be Q2'13? Have they actually stated it's Q2'13 now?

 

[Hellhammer]

I thought Micron wasn't specific with a release date, but it was believed to be Q2'13? Have they actually stated it's Q2'13 now?

Q2 is what I've heard but you're right, Micron/Crucial has not officially stated the release time frame yet. I just sent them an email and asked if the release schedule has gotten any more specific, let's see what they respond.

 

[Skott]

You won't see hdd prices of pre flood for a long time to come I'm thinking. The manufacturers were cutting their throats during those hdd wars. The flood allowed them to reset prices to something they are more comfortable with profit wise. By the same token SSD price drops will be controlled too. Profits means everything for these manufacturers and they'll do everything in their power to control that.

What we want to see is a glut of product in storage on shelves and then a price war break out. That to me would be the quickest way for the consumer to see quick price drops on hdd and SSDs. Otherwise it will be a slow controlled drop in pricing and at some point actually level off. Which is my current prediction. I dont see a price war any time soon.