20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying and Won't Recover

[JMapleton]

20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover

http://www.businessinsider.com/20-r...ing-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover-2010-2

Article from Feb, I just now read it. Sorry if it's a repost.

It reiterates a lot of what many others have said about the coming transition of the US economy from economic prosperity to economic survival.

 

[theeedude]

Never is a long time. But also forgetting a big one, our health care costs in general. We are spending 1/6th of GDP for same or worse health care results that other countries are spending 1/10th of theirs for. That is an anchor on US competitiveness.

 

[theevilsharpie]

We're fucked D:

But everyone else is fucked worse :awe:

 

[heyheybooboo]

We're fucked D:

But everyone else is fucked worse :awe:

Yeah, dammit.

US GDP over the next 75 years will only total $2,650 trillion.




--

 

[JMapleton]

Never is a long time. But also forgetting a big one, our health care costs in general. We are spending 1/6th of GDP for same or worse health care results that other countries are spending 1/10th of theirs for. That is an anchor on US competitiveness.

It's not the quality of our healthcare that is lacking, it's our lack of healthy lifestyles and exercise. You cannot forget that.

 

[theeedude]

It's not the quality of our healthcare that is lacking, it's our lack of healthy lifestyles and exercise. You cannot forget that.

Whatever it is, we are spending 2x as much to get same health results. That is a drag on our competitiveness. Like if you were racing a car with a 10% dead weight. Unless your competitors are complete imbeciles, you are gonna lose.

 

[Carmen813]

You need to add some commentary to your original post.

 

[LegendKiller]

Wow, that whole thing was hyperbole and garbage full of things that have no real effect on what we produce. It hits at ancillary problems that can be fixed with some tough decisions.

Saying it "wont recover" means the patient is dead, not that the patient is ailing and can be fixed with a couple surgeries.


Again, the supposed star stock jock comes across as some massive fool when it comes to real thought. No wonder you depend on charts for your stock picks, you lack the analytical power to do anything but crystal-ball bullshit.

I bet you read Tarot cards and go to a psychic too.

Also, where is your commentary? Can't read and understand the rules either.

 

[Triumph]

Why exactly are we headed for the next mortgage crisis? I'm not understanding what that prediction is based on.

 

[MotF Bane]

Never is a long time. But also forgetting a big one, our health care costs in general. We are spending 1/6th of GDP for same or worse health care results that other countries are spending 1/10th of theirs for. That is an anchor on US competitiveness.

Somehow, health care is the answer to all our problems. Senseamp understands the party line.

 

[BrownTown]

Talking about the economy in terms of all these numbers makes a person seem smart, but really the economy isn't a bunch of secret formulas it is just PEOPLE. That's exactly the problem here, people feel they should be required to do less and less work and that they are entitled to more and more things. Education and hard work aren't valued, they are seen as negative qualities.

There are several other problems of course like the excessive regulations in many sectors that makes it pretty much impossible to have any sort of heavy industry, or the fact that all the McFatties and sleezy insurance companies are driving up health care costs. Or the fact that we waste so much money trying to play world police. At the end of the day however if your citizens are too lazy to work while at the same time demanding ever increasing entitlements there really is no way to go but down.

It isn't exactly rocket science, look back at history at ANY country which was the #1 dog and see how they lost it, the same pattern is repeated 100 times over in history and isn't about to stop now.

 

[theeedude]

Somehow, health care is the answer to all our problems. Senseamp understands the party line.

Not all problems, but it's definitely on the top 20.
To think otherwise is you having partisan blinders on, not me.

 

[bobsmith1492]

Talking about the economy in terms of all these numbers makes a person seem smart, but really the economy isn't a bunch of secret formulas it is just PEOPLE. That's exactly the problem here, people feel they should be required to do less and less work and that they are entitled to more and more things. Education and hard work aren't valued, they are seen as negative qualities.

It's as simple as that; economics is all about the resources.

Natural resources we have; productive people (production resources?) we've had but are losing steadily.

It's the natural progression of a wealthy society; kids of wealthy people (and government-fed people) tend to not work as hard. When society as a whole discovers they can get by without working much, production goes down and the economy tanks.

 

[Matthiasa]

Hmm article seems very fear mongerish. Added to the fact that a lot of the things listed don't even have an effect on the economy and you are left with an article that that is more or less pointless.

 

[MotF Bane]

Not all problems, but it's definitely on the top 20.
To think otherwise is you having partisan blinders on, not me.

I'm the one with partisan blinders? You're the one who brought your party's favored issue into this thread. Don't forget to download tomorrow's talking points.

 

[Slew Foot]

Talking about the economy in terms of all these numbers makes a person seem smart, but really the economy isn't a bunch of secret formulas it is just PEOPLE. That's exactly the problem here, people feel they should be required to do less and less work and that they are entitled to more and more things. Education and hard work aren't valued, they are seen as negative qualities.

There are several other problems of course like the excessive regulations in many sectors that makes it pretty much impossible to have any sort of heavy industry, or the fact that all the McFatties and sleezy insurance companies are driving up health care costs. Or the fact that we waste so much money trying to play world police. At the end of the day however if your citizens are too lazy to work while at the same time demanding ever increasing entitlements there really is no way to go but down.

It isn't exactly rocket science, look back at history at ANY country which was the #1 dog and see how they lost it, the same pattern is repeated 100 times over in history and isn't about to stop now.

Yup

 

[razor2025]

At the end of the day however if your citizens are too lazy to work while at the same time demanding ever increasing entitlements there really is no way to go but down.

That's funny.. because according to most studies...



People are actually MORE PRODUCTIVE than EVER. The reason why we are in this economic debacle is explained pretty clearly here:

According to the link report that I took the image from (written in "boom time" of 2006)

As I just mentioned, when the labor share deviates from its long-run average or, equivalently, a gap opens between productivity and real compensation per hour, the reversion to the mean (that is, the closing of the gap) can take quite a while. In recent years, the labor share has moved down as increases in real compensation per hour have, for the most part, lagged behind productivity growth, but the timing and extent of the change in the labor share depends in part on the particular statistical measure chosen.

In other words, people haven't been compensated enough to keep the economy propped up. The fruit of labor has been concentrated to the richest, while the middle has had to mortgage their only savings vehicle to maintain their life-style which weren't so outlandish to begin with. Never mind the fact that inflation calculations that most compensation are based upon are arcane and not really reflective of the real world. In the modern age, federal inflation report needs to take into account cost of education and health care, which it still hasn't. It boggles my mind that people think Americans are lazier than ever, when the truth is actually the very opposite.

Here's a good video to watch on this subject. Straight from someone who teaches contract, commercial, and bankruptcy law at Harvard:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

 

[Jhhnn]

Wingnut lameness and denial- par for the course.

Our prize capitalist stallion got out of the barn, out of the corral, out of the pasture and is now running free on the open range with a brood of chinese mares, and he's never coming home unless we catch him. Not to mention that he leads 'em to our haystacks, where they eat their fill every night.

Americans don't want to work? really? That must be why there are dozens of applicants for every job, right?

American capitalists created the demand for more entitlements at home when they offshored production of nearly everything, but it's no problem for them, because we now borrow the money from them to feed people and prevent homelessness. Win-win, right?

 

[JMapleton]

Why exactly are we headed for the next mortgage crisis? I'm not understanding what that prediction is based on.

Read the article. Option ARM mortgages which have not reset yet, will, raising people's payments and forcing them to foreclose.

Everyone read the graphic slideshow:

http://www.businessinsider.com/20-r...over-2010-2/the-second-wave-of-foreclosures-1

 

[LegendKiller]

Read the article. Option ARM mortgages which have not reset yet, will, raising people's payments and forcing them to foreclose.

Everyone read the graphic slideshow:

http://www.businessinsider.com/20-r...over-2010-2/the-second-wave-of-foreclosures-1

If you performed a shred of fundamental analysis you'd realize a huge portion of those loans have already defaulted, been modified, or have had their recast dates pushed back since the Wells loans (former Wachovia portfolio) have different terms which weren't counted in the Credit Suisse analysis.

So much for that.

 

[Slick5150]

I'm the one with partisan blinders? You're the one who brought your party's favored issue into this thread. Don't forget to download tomorrow's talking points.

Right. Either that or he's making an actual point that you'd rather just ignore than accept as a valid argument.

It's hard to logically ignore 1/6 of the GDP as being a valid point when talking about what's weighing on the U.S. economy.

 

[Jhhnn]

If you performed a shred of fundamental analysis you'd realize a huge portion of those loans have already defaulted, been modified, or have had their recast dates pushed back since the Wells loans (former Wachovia portfolio) have different terms which weren't counted in the Credit Suisse analysis.

So much for that.

Point taken, although you offer no supporting numbers, and it's not over 'til it's over, right?

 

[theevilsharpie]

Read the article. Option ARM mortgages which have not reset yet, will, raising people's payments and forcing them to foreclose.

Everyone read the graphic slideshow:

http://www.businessinsider.com/20-r...over-2010-2/the-second-wave-of-foreclosures-1

One of the main things that killed homeowners when their ARMs reset is 2007 was the huge increase in interest rates that had occurred since they took out their mortgages.

This time, interest rates are extremely low, and may stay that way for a while. Thus, Option ARM resets aren't going to have as much of an impact.

 

[cubeless]

One of the main things that killed homeowners when their ARMs reset is 2007 was the huge increase in interest rates that had occurred since they took out their mortgages.

This time, interest rates are extremely low, and may stay that way for a while. Thus, Option ARM resets aren't going to have as much of an impact.

unless it goes from 0 to 5% and they were over what they could pay at 0%... time will tell...

 

[LegendKiller]

Point taken, although you offer no supporting numbers, and it's not over 'til it's over, right?

I believe there have been some charts about this, I'll have to look this weekend. There have been a number of people who have come out and said the same thing.

Trying to figure out which mortgages have prepaid or defaulted isn't an easy thing. Originations is far easier.