Boehner finally concedes to raise taxes on the rich.

[Jhhnn]

Originally Posted by michal1980

Its not a delusion. When the people belive republicans should be blamed for the fiscal cliff, when they do not control the goverment, the reason is clear: the MSLM has carried tons of water for the dems.

Repubs *do* control the govt when acting as obstructionists, particularly in the mundane matter of raising the debt ceiling to pay for expenditures they helped to authorize, when they hold the govt & the people hostage to unwise tax cuts, when they prevent govt from functioning by blocking routine presidential appointments, and when the Senate minority leader filibusters his own unaltered bill 5 minutes after introducing it.

The MSM has diligently reported their side of it, and Faux News, with ~1/3 of market share, has touted it from the rooftops.

[Fern]

Originally Posted by First

I like the detailed counterargument contained within your post, so voluminous.

Your prediction doesn't deserve one. But I'll give you a couple of points:

Less than a year to trim over half a billion $'s from our deficit? Are you kidding? (The CBO says the first 2 months of the '13 resulted in a deficit of almost $300 billion - more than the same period last year.) In only 10 months we'll be in the 2014 yr.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43754

Are you familiar with baseline budgeting? How much will baseline budgeting itself add to our expenditures?

We have a smaller workforce now than anytime since 1981 and many who are working are underemployed at low wage jobs. We've got a serious revenue drain.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...Ay1T_blog.html

The economy cannot possibly grow fast enough in that time period to materially help, much less cover that huge shortfall. And there simply isn't enough additional tax revenue from rate increases out there to help materially either.

Medicare etc is going to continue to grow given the Baby Boom population.

It's simply impossible. How anyone can possibly think our deficit will be under half a billion $'s a year by 2014 is amazing.

Fern

[First]

Originally Posted by Fern

Your prediction doesn't deserve one. But I'll give you a couple of points:

Less than a year to trim over half a billion $'s from our deficit? Are you kidding? (The CBO says the first 2 months of the '13 resulted in a deficit of almost $300 billion - more than the same period last year.) In only 10 months we'll be in the 2014 yr.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43754

Are you familiar with baseline budgeting? How much will baseline budgeting itself add to our expenditures?

We have a smaller workforce now than anytime since 1981 and many who are working are underemployed at low wage jobs. We've got a serious revenue drain.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...Ay1T_blog.html

The economy cannot possibly grow fast enough in that time period to materially help, much less cover that huge shortfall. And there simply isn't enough additional tax revenue from rate increases out there to help materially either.

Medicare etc is going to continue to grow given the Baby Boom population.

It's simply impossible. How anyone can possibly think our deficit will be under half a billion $'s a year by 2014 is amazing.

Fern

BUMP for poor, poor Fern, and lulz to your notion that somehow this was impossible! You're a riot and, sadly, you're someone who has become so radically, ideologically right-wing that you couldn't forsee 6 months ago a scenario where increased taxes, an improving economy, revenue from gov't owned entities (Fannie, Freddie) driving down the deficit to what I predicted would be roughly half a trillion by 2014. CBO now projects a $560B deficit for fiscal 2014.

Take your lumps.

[EagleKeeper]

Projection vs actual.

Please report back with the actual numbers come Sept 2015.

That will cover the budget for 2014 and the spending that Congress will authorize

[First]

Originally Posted by EagleKeeper

Projection vs actual.

Please report back with the actual numbers come Sept 2015.

That will cover the budget for 2014 and the spending that Congress will authorize

True, except the revenue is already there for a lot of the improvement; e.g. the surplus last month (resulting from tens of billions in Fannie and Freddie profits), the additional $120B this year from the SS payroll tax increase, the additional $60B from upper income tax increases on $400K earners and of course billions and billions of additional tax revenue coming from increased economic activity. All of that except the increased economic activity is either already in the bank or will be very close to those figures by the end of the fiscal year. As long as the economy doesn't take a dive in the next few months, we'll see a $600B-$700B deficit, and of course much less than that next year. Even with a budget deal that gets rid of sequestration.

[manimal]

rather quiet in this thread.

[Fern]

Originally Posted by manimal

rather quiet in this thread.

What's to say?

Some boob taking a premature victory is all that's going on ATM.

Fern

[First]

Originally Posted by Fern

premature

As was just explained to EagleKeeper, a massive chunk of the savings are already locked in; the mortal locks for revenue are the SS payroll tax bump to 6.2% (~$120B revenue based on my last check), $400K earners income tax bump to 39.6% (~$60B) and Fannie/Freddie profits to the Treasury ($66.4B). That's already a quarter trillion additional revenue as compared to last year, which is by itself a 23% improvement in the deficit in just one year. Now, of course, the real driver of revenue growth will always be the (volatile) revenue generated from corporate tax receipts, capital gains and healthcare spending; healthcare which continues it's 4-year downward spending trajectory. Of course, if the stock market is any guide, we're likely to see another banner year for capital gains and the like.

In other words, you're already wrong. As the next year progresses, you could be less wrong but, make no mistake, you've already gotten your ass kicked. Like Benghazi, I'll hold you partisans to account on your fake scandals and assigning false blame.

[EagleKeeper]

SS should not count in the budget.

While there is more coming in, wait until the politicians find some emergency that needs addressing.

I want to see what the spending/actual revenue is on Oct 1 2013 and 2014 before breaking out the bubbly.

Rosy predictions by the CBO are based on rosy scenarios presented to them.

We had a balance under Clinton by the hair of our chin, built on scenarios that blew up in 3 months.

If the pols can pull it off for a couple of years in a row, then they have earned their world wide fact finding investigations and million dollar VP tours overseas.

[Matt1970]

Originally Posted by First

True, except the revenue is already there for a lot of the improvement; e.g. the surplus last month (resulting from tens of billions in Fannie and Freddie profits), the additional $120B this year from the SS payroll tax increase, the additional $60B from upper income tax increases on $400K earners and of course billions and billions of additional tax revenue coming from increased economic activity. All of that except the increased economic activity is either already in the bank or will be very close to those figures by the end of the fiscal year. As long as the economy doesn't take a dive in the next few months, we'll see a $600B-$700B deficit, and of course much less than that next year. Even with a budget deal that gets rid of sequestration.

While I remain very optimistic let's not count chickens before they hatch. These are projections.

The Congressional Budget Office cites higher tax revenues and better-than-expected bailout repayments by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

One of the reasons for the burst of additional income tax revenues, the budget office says, is that upper-income taxpayers claimed more income late last year in order to avoid paying the higher tax rates enacted in January.

That "burst of additional income" is a one time deal as there will be no rush to claim income next year to avoid taxes and revenue from paying back the bailout won't last forever.

[First]

Originally Posted by EagleKeeper

SS should not count in the budget.

Huh? SS taxes are included in the budget by law.

While there is more coming in, wait until the politicians find some emergency that needs addressing.

I want to see what the spending/actual revenue is on Oct 1 2013 and 2014 before breaking out the bubbly.

Rosy predictions by the CBO are based on rosy scenarios presented to them.

The budget outlook improved by $200B+ compared to 2 months ago, it had nothing to do with unusual methodology from what I can see.

We had a balance under Clinton by the hair of our chin, built on scenarios that blew up in 3 months.

Blew up how and by whom?

[First]

Originally Posted by Matt1970

While I remain very optimistic let's not count chickens before they hatch. These are projections.

Roughly 23% of the improvement is locked in as compared to the $1.089T 2012 deficit. The actual number could very well vary by billions in one direction or another, but it's now clear the deficit number is especially unlikely to vary by (for example) hundreds of billions in a negative direction if the economy were even just to keep steady, let alone grow at an accelerating pace as it's, frankly, likely to (if you believe the rationality of free markets).

That "burst of additional income" is a one time deal as there will be no rush to claim income next year to avoid taxes and revenue from paying back the bailout won't last forever.

Paying back the bailout could last another decade, Treasury has $5T in Fannie/Freddie shares. Additionally, those trying to get in under the tax hike wire accounted for a rather insignificant portion of the improvement from every number available in that CBO report (a few extra billion was generated, not even 10's of billions).

[Matt1970]

Originally Posted by First

Roughly 23% of the improvement is locked in as compared to the $1.089T 2012 deficit. The actual number could very well vary by billions in one direction or another, but it's now clear the deficit number is especially unlikely to vary by (for example) hundreds of billions in a negative direction if the economy were even just to keep steady, let alone grow at an accelerating pace as it's, frankly, likely to (if you believe the rationality of free markets).



Paying back the bailout could last another decade, Treasury has $5T in Fannie/Freddie shares. Additionally, those trying to get in under the tax hike wire accounted for a rather insignificant portion of the improvement from every number available in that CBO report (a few extra billion was generated, not even 10's of billions).

Well lets just hope things are even better than they predict.