Q412 CPU market share

[mrmt]

http://www.investorvillage.com/mbthr...9969&showall=1

Market Share Overview

In the fourth quarter of 2012 the overall PC processor market declined six percent compared to the third quarter. This is worse than the season average of the previous five years, which is a 1.1 percent decline for this quarter. On-year growth was down 11.4 percent, exceeding the on-year decline seen during the fourth-quarter market collapse of 2008 (8.8 percent). This quarter’s results are now also the second-worst on-year decline in the past 20 years, exceeded only by the first quarter of 2001, and displacing the prior quarter for the dubious honor.

Intel gained share in all segments this quarter, with mobile gaining two full points of share. AMD lost share in all segments.

Only server CPUs grew this quarter – up 2.4 percent and again due solely to Intel. The mobile segment was down 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, while desktop CPUs were down 7.0 percent.

For all of 2012, Intel’s market share was 82.5 percent, up two points from 2011. AMD’s share declined 1.9 points to 16.9 percent, while VIA’s share was unchanged at 0.5 percent.

If ARM-based computing devices were included in the annual share computations, collectively they would hold 24.6 percent of the market, up from 12.6 percent in 2011.

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AMD is predicting another 10% decrease this quarter, which should put AMD below 15% market share. Death spiral has definitely begun.

[ShintaiDK]

AMD only shipped 13 million CPUs in Q4. Yikes. Nearly 19 million was shipped in Q1 2012.

[StrangerGuy]

I wonder how much the PC decline was attributed to people getting sick of godawful 15.6" 768p TN screens that are terrible even by TN standards.

[sm625]

Originally Posted by mrmt

This quarter’s results are now also the second-worst on-year decline in the past 20 years, exceeded only by the first quarter of 2001, and displacing the prior quarter for the dubious honor.

It's funny how back in 2001, back when we still had a somewhat real market, this type of dropoff in PC sales was met with a 30% decline in the stock market. Nowadays, the stock market goes up, because everyone knows they will just print more money to buy $500 smartphones and $600 tablets to replace all those $400 desktops, in addition to $999 notebooks. Ah the wonders of debt fueled consumption...

[Hulk]

Originally Posted by StrangerGuy

I wonder how much the PC decline was attributed to people getting sick of godawful 15.6" 768p TN screens that are terrible even by TN standards.

We can only hope the average consumer can actually see a difference between the crap screen in their laptop and the great one in their tablet and/or phone.

I see these numbers more as a restructuring of the market rather than a decline of the computer market per se. There is a shift going on right now to mobile and ultramobile devices. Both the manufacturers and consumers are "feeling" the market out. Which form factors will be useful, which will not? Which OS? What apps do I require? Exciting times for computer related devices. And just coincidentally Intel is on the verge of put powerful x86 processors in these ultra mobile devices. Very interesting times indeed.

[StrangerGuy]

Originally Posted by Hulk

We can only hope the average consumer can actually see a difference between the crap screen in their laptop and the great one in their tablet and/or phone.

I see these numbers more as a restructuring of the market rather than a decline of the computer market per se. There is a shift going on right now to mobile and ultramobile devices. Both the manufacturers and consumers are "feeling" the market out. Which form factors will be useful, which will not? Which OS? What apps do I require? Exciting times for computer related devices. And just coincidentally Intel is on the verge of put powerful x86 processors in these ultra mobile devices. Very interesting times indeed.

One of the biggest follies over the past few years is how Intel completely missed the boat in the tablet/smartphone space and practically gave it up to ARM. The writing was already on the wall back when the netbook craze begun but they were too obsessed over margins to take it seriously and now the traditional x86 markets is crumbling beneath their feet and even Haswell is probably too late to save the day.

[ShintaiDK]

Originally Posted by StrangerGuy

One of the biggest follies over the past few years is how Intel completely missed the boat in the tablet/smartphone space and practically gave it up to ARM. The writing was already on the wall back when the netbook craze begun but they were too obsessed over margins to take it seriously and now the traditional x86 markets is crumbling beneath their feet and even Haswell is probably too late to save the day.

You might be abit overexieted about ARM. You know the ARM segment went backwards in 2012, right?

The only reason we got this ARM talk today is the fact that smartphone makers can sell a 180-200$ BOM phone for 600$ and reap in record profit. But thats nothing to do with it being ARM.

[Genx87]

Originally Posted by StrangerGuy

I wonder how much the PC decline was attributed to people getting sick of godawful 15.6" 768p TN screens that are terrible even by TN standards.

I doubt much at all. People are spending their money elsewhere. Phones, tablets, other entertainment devices.

A nearly 11.5% dip in sales year on year is not good.

[Piroko]

Originally Posted by ShintaiDK

The only reason we got this ARM talk today is the fact that smartphone makers can sell a 180-200$ BOM phone for 600$ and reap in record profit. But thats nothing to do with it being ARM.

Well you wouldn't have a 180-200$ BOM if the SOC was more than 1/4th of it. So it does have to do a bit with Arm as in the last 4 years noone else has managed to create (or wanted to create) something in the same price- performance- and power bracket to outcompete Arm.

[Xpage]

DOOM!!!! We are all DOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!

One quarter of bad sales does not mean much, if this kept up for a year I would be more worried. People just may be delaying purchases till later on, which still may not be great but as long as people still upgrade things will eb fine, it just may make upgrade cycles longer thus companies can plan node shrinks on a longer period of time as well

[pablo87]

Originally Posted by StrangerGuy

I wonder how much the PC decline was attributed to people getting sick of godawful 15.6" 768p TN screens that are terrible even by TN standards.

This and more generally, a dumbing down, good enough mentality eg. integrated graphics.

At this point, the ship is sailing. The entire Eco-system is investing in technologies for tablets and smartphones. Such investments leads to innovation and a greater rate of improvement, and with greater volume, a better return. It is a very vicious positive reinforcement circle for the PC industry.

In this situation, who stands to lose the most, or is everyone leaving?

[Torn Mind]

Originally Posted by sm625

It's funny how back in 2001, back when we still had a somewhat real market, this type of dropoff in PC sales was met with a 30% decline in the stock market. Nowadays, the stock market goes up, because everyone knows they will just print more money to buy $500 smartphones and $600 tablets to replace all those $400 desktops, in addition to $999 notebooks. Ah the wonders of debt fueled consumption...

I would like to know what more expansionary monetary policy tricks are out there that can actually induce hyperinflation and not result in a repeal of the law that allows the Federal Reserve its ability to exist.

[Intel17]

Originally Posted by StrangerGuy

One of the biggest follies over the past few years is how Intel completely missed the boat in the tablet/smartphone space and practically gave it up to ARM. The writing was already on the wall back when the netbook craze begun but they were too obsessed over margins to take it seriously and now the traditional x86 markets is crumbling beneath their feet and even Haswell is probably too late to save the day.

ARM doesn't make any chips that go into smartphones/tablets.

You're telling me that Intel can't compete with Nvidia/Qualcomm for smartphone/tablet chips? Whatever you say...

[frozentundra123456]

Originally Posted by pablo87

This and more generally, a dumbing down, good enough mentality eg. integrated graphics.

At this point, the ship is sailing. The entire Eco-system is investing in technologies for tablets and smartphones. Such investments leads to innovation and a greater rate of improvement, and with greater volume, a better return. It is a very vicious positive reinforcement circle for the PC industry.

In this situation, who stands to lose the most, or is everyone leaving?

I agree the trend to tablets is a general "dumbing down", not so much smart phones. I am willing to accept the limitations of ARM/android in a phone more than in a larger device such as a tablet. Hopefully in a year or two, tablets will have improved to the point that you can actually do something useful on them besides social networking and content consumption. Personally for mobile devices now, my choices would be a smartphone for connectivity on the go and a laptop for a moderate level of mobility and the ability to run x86 and have a decent input interface. Right now I just dont see the attraction of tablets, especially high end ones that cost as much as a laptop. They are just too limited in functionality. Obvioulsy I am in the minority though.

[Genx87]

Originally Posted by Xpage

DOOM!!!! We are all DOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!

One quarter of bad sales does not mean much, if this kept up for a year I would be more worried. People just may be delaying purchases till later on, which still may not be great but as long as people still upgrade things will eb fine, it just may make upgrade cycles longer thus companies can plan node shrinks on a longer period of time as well

It isnt one quarter.

[SocketF]

How many processors were sold totally in 2012? I found numbers for 2011, then it were 407M.

[ShintaiDK]

Originally Posted by SocketF

How much processors were sold totally in 2012? I found numbers for 2011, then it were 407M.

I only found OEM numbers. Those were 365.3 million in 2011 and 352.7 million in 2012.

In Q4 it was 90.3 million. Of those 17.5 million in NA, 28 million in EMEA and rest in Asia/SA.

[ronss]

i personally think that windows 8 is having an effect on buyers wanting to buy a new rig now, at least the non-enthusiast...i will not buy windows 8 rig period, i hate windows 8. microsoft has really screwed things up this time..

[ShintaiDK]

And yes, Windows 8 is certainly not helping either. Its a disasterous OS. Maybe the worst Windows OS ever released.

[pablo87]

Originally Posted by frozentundra123456

I agree the trend to tablets is a general "dumbing down", not so much smart phones. I am willing to accept the limitations of ARM/android in a phone more than in a larger device such as a tablet. Hopefully in a year or two, tablets will have improved to the point that you can actually do something useful on them besides social networking and content consumption. Personally for mobile devices now, my choices would be a smartphone for connectivity on the go and a laptop for a moderate level of mobility and the ability to run x86 and have a decent input interface. Right now I just dont see the attraction of tablets, especially high end ones that cost as much as a laptop. They are just too limited in functionality. Obvioulsy I am in the minority though.

Which is why the right strategy for PCs is to do the opposite. Intel and Microsoft spend the most on PC advert, MS is focused on W8 and Intel on UB and integrated - discrete despite no air support relatively speaking, is doing not bad. Well everyone has their own agenda it seems.