Are hard drive prices coming back down to normal levels?

[groberts101]

Originally Posted by corkyg

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2297497

An interesting thread, but I don't see any data to support exactly what "normal" is. ???

ding.. ding.. ding.. give that man a cigar!

EXACTLY RIGHT! The problem that I see is that most of these "the sky is still falling" guys are basing their $$/GB expectations on the bubble that was in effect before the flood. Which is just not realistic at all since it would have inevitably burst anyways, IMO.

Personally speaking.. I don't want a 1TB HDD for 30 bucks because it's pretty simple to imagine that corners will have to be cut for them to make money at such a low price point. And what seems even funnier.. is that some of these same guys are appalled by those who use R0 with concerns for data integrity? lol

And if they did stay down at that pricing for very long?(which is what I consider to be "normal").. I would let all the overly-frugal types test them out for me first.

[blastingcap]

If you graph $cost/GB over time, and extrapolate that over long enough periods of time you will get a sense of the HDD version of Moore's law. Whether or not you believe today's prices are where they "should" be, I leave up to the reader as an exercise. Someone made a chart of $cost/GB through 2010 by the way: http://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte

[BladeVenom]

http://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte

So we should be down to about a penny per GB now, correct?

[groberts101]

yeah.. I've seen similar charts before and surely that law applies here.

BUT.. to think that these things will continue to drop at the same downward slope without a linear transition to a horizontal line state?.. is assuming that they are made free for the consumer. They obviously still have to make profit to make it worth their while too, right?

Personally speaking.. I really hope they keep prices up a bit more to allow better profit margins and better warranty supporting the HOPEFULLY better hardware used in those higher priced drives. Of course histry show's that greed doesn't always work in that fashion and it's all about cutting corners(in quality and labor) AND increasing prices to create fatter margins for many companies these days.

That will also pave the way for a quicker transition to flash based storage solutions for the mainstream users out there as these monopolistic companies just shoot themselves in their own two feet when being greedy like that.

[georgec84]

http://www.maximumpc.com/article/new...e_slow_decline

[It's Not Lupus]

Originally Posted by Smoblikat

1TB - 60 2TB - 80 3TB - 100

I think those are fair prices, currently all prices are still inflated severely

These prices are fair back in late 2011. $50 was kind of the minimum for new HDDs regardless of capacity.

If not for the flood, a 1TB HDD now would probably cost $50, and a 2TB would cost less than $80 (2011, Samsung F4 2TB priced $80, no sale).

[ShintaiDK]

In 2015, around 80% of shipped PCs will be SSD or something like that.

HDs aint gonna get cheaper as volume plummets. Same with the R&D budget.

[VirtualLarry]

Originally Posted by ShintaiDK

In 2015, around 80% of shipped PCs will be SSD or something like that.

HDs aint gonna get cheaper as volume plummets. Same with the R&D budget.

Did you read the Maximum PC article? The mfgs are intentionally limiting production.

[ShintaiDK]

Originally Posted by VirtualLarry

Did you read the Maximum PC article? The mfgs are intentionally limiting production.

Arh, thats not what it said. It said they got more capacity than there is demand. Also the chain only takes 8 weeks.

[VirtualLarry]

Originally Posted by ShintaiDK

Arh, thats not what it said. It said they got more capacity than there is demand. Also the chain only takes 8 weeks.

"because we are throttling it to what we see as demand."

If they are "throttling" production to meet demand, that means that they are intentionally limiting production, to prevent a price decline.

[groberts101]

Originally Posted by VirtualLarry

"because we are throttling it to what we see as demand."

If they are "throttling" production to meet demand, that means that they are intentionally limiting production, to prevent a price decline.

sigh.. maybe it's a perspective or interpretation thing?... but why would any HDD mfgr.. or any mfgr for that matter(aside from seeing a potential spike in demand exceeding their production capacity).. want to kick up production to the point that they have surplus product sitting in warehouses until the demand is great enough to require shipment?

And why would any vendor want it sitting on their shelves collecting dust either?

So, IMHO.. "throttling".. merely means "adjusting to demand".. which is not the same as "shorting supply" just for the sake of increasing price.

[corkyg]

Originally Posted by groberts101

. . . So, IMHO.. "throttling".. merely means "adjusting to demand".. which is not the same as "shorting supply" just for the sake of increasing price.

Agree! Many techies more often than not fail to research the market data for tech manufacturers - market share, profit margins, debt load, ROI, ROE, trends. Try and look at it through investor's eyes. HDDs are somewhat dependent on the PC market - and PC sales are down while tablet and smart phone sales are up. HDD sales are down - SSD sales are up. This suggests a trend in the HDD market.

Current profitability in HDDs is very good for Seagate - not so good for WDC, WDC has a very large debt load to deal with - Seagate does not. They are the two main players with Toshiba a somewhat distant 3rd.

Example: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...tock-deal.html

[iluvdeal]

Originally Posted by ShintaiDK

In 2015, around 80% of shipped PCs will be SSD or something like that.

HDs aint gonna get cheaper as volume plummets. Same with the R&D budget.

I was reading this thread over the weekend. Stuff like the post above made me think about selling my Seagate (STX) stock which I paid $27/share for last year. They are part of duopoly, might as well get on board and make money off it too rather than sit and complain about it was my reasoning for buying it. Unlike many of my investments, it worked out well as STX just hit a new 52 week high ($37) last week.

So Seagate's stock performance wasn't mirroring most of the opinions expressed in this thread which painted a dim view for HDD manufacturers: lower prices and SSD eating their market share. I decided to hold onto my shares rather than sell on Monday despite agreeing with that assessment, don't fight the market right? Well Seagate is down almost 10% today after announced earning. CEO said demand was weak. Doh! I sold my shares today at $34. Was this the right move long term? I guess we'll see.

[OlafSicky]

Originally Posted by iluvdeal

I was reading this thread over the weekend. Stuff like the post above made me think about selling my Seagate (STX) stock which I paid $27/share for last year. They are part of duopoly, might as well get on board and make money off it too rather than sit and complain about it was my reasoning for buying it. Unlike many of my investments, it worked out well as STX just hit a new 52 week high ($37) last week.

So Seagate's stock performance wasn't mirroring most of the opinions expressed in this thread which painted a dim view for HDD manufacturers: lower prices and SSD eating their market share. I decided to hold onto my shares rather than sell on Monday despite agreeing with that assessment, don't fight the market right? Well Seagate is down almost 10% today after announced earning. CEO said demand was weak. Doh! I sold my shares today at $34. Was this the right move long term? I guess we'll see.

SSD have a long way to go before they can be used for storage, we will need more storage not less so I think HD manufacturers might be ok for a while but their glory days are over.

[groberts101]

Originally Posted by OlafSicky

SSD have a long way to go before they can be used for storage, we will need more storage not less so I think HD manufacturers might be ok for a while but their glory days are over.

I agree 100%.

It won't be until SSD can approach 2TB for about $199 that it may shift substantially enough to take enough market share from them to be really concerned about it. And that will be some time from now with data loads and existing HDD architecture pushing towrds even larger capacity points by that time anyways.

So, imagine in 5 years.. do most consumer drive users choose a 5TB HDD for $199.. or 1TB SSD for $199 when considering their best storage solution?

HDD isn't going anywhere soon enough for my taste.. but that's just the way it'll be from a simple economic's standpoint regardless of whether we like it or not.

[reb0rn]

The price of the HDD and quality had nothing in common!
The HDD-s from 2012 are CRAP, they sold even dead one just to get premium price!

I hope they rot, and i hope for HDD price to be like 20$, they deserved it for making some flood like end of the world, if SSD don`t kill them i hope something will!

First they unite and dictate market, then they use flood as reason to make insane profit and duno how they lied about profit, but they did!

[philipma1957]

Originally Posted by groberts101

I agree 100%.

It won't be until SSD can approach 2TB for about $199 that it may shift substantially enough to take enough market share from them to be really concerned about it. And that will be some time from now with data loads and existing HDD architecture pushing towrds even larger capacity points by that time anyways.

So, imagine in 5 years.. do most consumer drive users choose a 5TB HDD for $199.. or 1TB SSD for $199 when considering their best storage solution?

HDD isn't going anywhere soon enough for my taste.. but that's just the way it'll be from a simple economic's standpoint regardless of whether we like it or not.

true,

right now a 4tb for 250 is available



http://www.hgst.com/tech/techlib.nsf/techdocs/3C330019E6ED04A48825797700626F0D/$file/DS7K4000_ds.pdf

various sellers have this for 250.

ssd still can't come close in price. the best price I have seen for an ssd is 126 for 256gb which is 8 or 9 times the price.

[randomrogue]

Prices are still too high. I feel bad for those that didn't stock up before the flood. $40 for 1TB iirc and $69 for 2TB.

I have never bought a hard drive years down the road that was MORE expensive and I don't plan on starting now.

[ShintaiDK]

Originally Posted by groberts101

I agree 100%.

It won't be until SSD can approach 2TB for about $199 that it may shift substantially enough to take enough market share from them to be really concerned about it. And that will be some time from now with data loads and existing HDD architecture pushing towrds even larger capacity points by that time anyways.

So, imagine in 5 years.. do most consumer drive users choose a 5TB HDD for $199.. or 1TB SSD for $199 when considering their best storage solution?

HDD isn't going anywhere soon enough for my taste.. but that's just the way it'll be from a simple economic's standpoint regardless of whether we like it or not.

In 2012 95%+ of all shipped systems was already below 750GB. And 10% of all shipped systems contained an SSD.

There are more SSDs sold than HDs above 750GB.

Almost 20% is expected to contain an SSD in 2013.

[tential]

Originally Posted by randomrogue

Prices are still too high. I feel bad for those that didn't stock up before the flood. $40 for 1TB iirc and $69 for 2TB.

I have never bought a hard drive years down the road that was MORE expensive and I don't plan on starting now.

Yup I got dicked over. Now it's more expensive than before to buy a HD. Next time I see the 3 TB for under 100 though I'm going to pick up two. That should last me a little bit. I still of course need to build a whole new system though lol.

[philipma1957]

Originally Posted by ShintaiDK

In 2012 95%+ of all shipped systems was already below 750GB. And 10% of all shipped systems contained an SSD.

There are more SSDs sold than HDs above 750GB.

Almost 20% is expected to contain an SSD in 2013.

Yes the push is towards streaming and not storage.

The pc world has figured out that huge storage for a small guy hurts them. So they have pushed mobile and streaming as much as they can.

At one time I could get 24tb for under 1k. 48tb under 2k.

including the cases. I was getting 3tb drives for 99 so 8 was 800 and rosewill made a 8 bay case for under 200. There was a low cost 4 port sata card. This allowed 16 3tb volumes or 48tb. For just about 2k.



Not that I needed it but I could do it and every drive could be a stand alone 3tb volume. Allowing for some safety. If I chose to I could have millions of songs in my home. Along with thousands of movies. This would be hard on current sales of current material. It would encourage bootleg and trading of music and movies. Among fellow collectors such as myself.

So pushing streaming and the cloud over cheap storage became the norm.

This is not going to change that quickly.

[tential]

Originally Posted by philipma1957

Yes the push is towards streaming and not storage.

The pc world has figured out that huge storage for a small guy hurts them. So they have pushed mobile and streaming as much as they can.

At one time I could get 24tb for under 1k. 48tb under 2k.

including the cases. I was getting 3tb drives for 99 so 8 was 800 and rosewill made a 8 bay case for under 200. There was a low cost 4 port sata card. This allowed 16 3tb volumes or 48tb. For just about 2k.



Not that I needed it but I could do it and every drive could be a stand alone 3tb volume. Allowing for some safety. If I chose to I could have millions of songs in my home. Along with thousands of movies. This would be hard on current sales of current material. It would encourage bootleg and trading of music and movies. Among fellow collectors such as myself.

So pushing streaming and the cloud over cheap storage became the norm.

This is not going to change that quickly.

Considering the average consumer isn't going to utilize over 500 GB (almost every one of my friends PCs has 300+ gbs left at least), I agree with this. HD prices may move up as more and more manufacturers switch over to providing SSDs because of improved performance and battery life at the offset of storage, which most consumers rarely use. That's why I'm going to jump on the next 99 3TB deal and probably pick up 2-4 like you said.

The market isn't demanding drives above 3 TB, or even many drives above 1 TB, so it's no wonder supply is going down, and prices are going up.

[VirtualLarry]

Originally Posted by tential

The market isn't demanding drives above 3 TB, or even many drives above 1 TB, so it's no wonder supply is going down, and prices are going up.

Perhaps Seagate should invest in the Pr0n industry. Didn't the CEO of Seagate once say that their drives were primarily used to store Pr0n?

There might be an upside to this, with the advent of 4K video, otherwise known as UltraHD.

[OlafSicky]

Originally Posted by VirtualLarry

There might be an upside to this, with the advent of 4K video, otherwise known as UltraHD.

If that ever happens it will be at least 5 years away. Most people still don't watch HD and not all channels are not broadcast in HD. I don't see 4K for tv happening any time soon perhaps in 10 years.

[Subyman]

Originally Posted by groberts101

yeah.. I've seen similar charts before and surely that law applies here.

BUT.. to think that these things will continue to drop at the same downward slope without a linear transition to a horizontal line state?.. is assuming that they are made free for the consumer. They obviously still have to make profit to make it worth their while too, right?

Personally speaking.. I really hope they keep prices up a bit more to allow better profit margins and better warranty supporting the HOPEFULLY better hardware used in those higher priced drives. Of course histry show's that greed doesn't always work in that fashion and it's all about cutting corners(in quality and labor) AND increasing prices to create fatter margins for many companies these days.

That will also pave the way for a quicker transition to flash based storage solutions for the mainstream users out there as these monopolistic companies just shoot themselves in their own two feet when being greedy like that.

As long as the order of magnitude in storage capacity keeps increasing, the price can keep decreasing by orders of magnitudes.