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Old 01-23-2013, 09:40 AM   #101
SiliconWars
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AMD and Intel can only gain from this point onward in tablets. Graphically, AMD is so far ahead of everyone else that they have some kind of safety net simply due to offering something different. AMD also has the luxury of consoles which should be ~20% of revenues by the end of 2013.

Temash looks like the real class of 2013. The only real problem I see is what that $1.15 billion of GF wafers is going to provide. Still, if we assume $275 million a quarter in GF wafers is what they are doing right now it seems feasible, especially as Trinity is in good demand and holding price. Richland can only improve on that situation, but the whole GF scenario looks like it can end up even at best for AMD this year.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:46 AM   #102
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LOL

Comparing Qualcomm to Intel is a little silly. Intel's low end, half-arsed Atom competes favorably with the best Qualcomm makes.

They're comparable in market cap only.
Intel will have the fastest cpu. But Qualcomm has great integration will probably scale to up to make a 4/8 core ARM CPU running close to 3ghz(Snapdragon 800 series is almost there). That on a android like platform will be sufficient CPU power. Plus they are so profitable and can sell at prices intel will not want to compete.

Already my touchpad with Snapdragon S3 seem quick enough.

I like intel(I am using a penryn laptop now and core i7 arrandale at work). But traditional laptop/desktop sales will continue to go down as iPad or Nexus 7 is suffice for most casual users. I doubt intel will be big enough player to compete against arm in phones/tablets even if silvermont is better than any arm cpu/gpu. Intel will price silvermont lot higher than arm which will mean they will continue to be niche player. Plus unlike windows world, most software/os is already optimized for ARM than Intel. So I doubt there will be any incentive for device makers to support Intel.

I personally wont mind buying Intel phone or a haswell/broadwell Y series convertible. But arm is going to take a slice of laptop and tablets are already eating into laptop sales. That is why I feel Qualcomm and Samsung will be formidable players as they will make efficient SOC at cheap prices while being profitable.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:46 AM   #103
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Speaking specifically of 2013 and the WSA + take-or-pay situation, any insights into what sort of contractually obligated cost structure AMD is facing with GloFo for the next four quarters?
The take-or-pay commitment for 2013 is 1.15 billion in wafers, which gives us some 290 million per quarter, and quarterly COGS for Q1 is should be around 640 million. If you purge GPU numbers with a 45% gross margins, it leaves us with some 460 million to play with. Depends on the backlog Kabini/Brazos orders shouldn't go over 150 million in COGS, which leaves us with enough safety margins to not trigger another relevant take or pay charge for Q1 and most likely Q2.

This rationale is valid only if AMD can deliver or beat shipment targets.

I don't think Q2 numbers will give us a bad surprise, but I'd be worried about Q3 numbers. AMD is traditionally plunging each Q3 when Intel releases another generation, and Haswell has the potential to make a dent in notebook revenues, exactly the only area where AMD has reasonable margins.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:58 AM   #104
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I am shocked by these results. Shocked!
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:00 AM   #105
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD +8.65% saw its shares rise more than 7%, to $2.62 in early trading Wednesday. AMD got a lift after the company reported late Tuesday a fourth-quarter loss of $473 million, or 63 cents a share, compared with a loss of $177 million, or 24 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Revenue declined by 32% to $1.16 billion from last year's fourth quarter. Excluding one-time items, AMD would have lost 14 cents a share, while analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast the company to lose 21 cents a share on $1.15 billion in sales

Truly, it is amazing that they are still in business, i'd like to know where they find the cash. It sounds like magic to me. (intel, is that you?)
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:00 AM   #106
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Holy crap the whitewash is thick in this thread.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:07 AM   #107
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AMD and Intel can only gain from this point onward in tablets. Graphically, AMD is so far ahead of everyone else that they have some kind of safety net simply due to offering something different. .
Last time I checked Nvidia was bleeding AMD market share in GPU, and Tegra has *much* more traction in mobile devices than Kabini or Temash.

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AMD also has the luxury of consoles which should be ~20% of revenues by the end of 2013.
Could you please clarify this statement? How will they get their *entire* embeded *and* custom chip sales target with consoles only?
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:10 AM   #108
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Eyefinity,

I assume if you believe this, you will be loading up on some AMD tomorrow?
Happily counting my 10%. How are you doing today?

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amd
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:12 AM   #109
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How on earth do you actually believe that people are going to buy your spin that for a company priced at under $2B, losing $1.2B in a year is not a catastrophic event and that the company is healthy....
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:17 AM   #110
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Last time I checked Nvidia was bleeding AMD market share in GPU, and Tegra has *much* more traction in mobile devices than Kabini or Temash.
Tegra has more traction than chips that aren't in the hands of OEM's yet? Well gee fancy that.


Quote:
Could you please clarify this statement? How will they get their *entire* embeded *and* custom chip sales target with consoles only?
15-20%. It's clear AMD is in all consoles and that will easily be worth $1 billion by the end of this year.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:37 AM   #111
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I am shocked by these results. Shocked!
I understand your feelings broe. Its very seldom AMD meet their targets and the market react nearly as shocked.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:39 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Eyefinity View Post
It's clear AMD is in all consoles and that will easily be worth $1 billion by the end of this year.
While I do expect the console wins to have a positive effect, it's not going to be any where near $1B by the end of the year.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:45 AM   #113
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15-20%. It's clear AMD is in all consoles and that will easily be worth $1 billion by the end of this year.
You better check again your tea leaves, because Kumar and Read are giving 1 billion for the entire embedded/semi-custom business. Consoles are not even half that if you ask CreSui.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:54 AM   #114
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The console business is only a very small part. In the next round AMD only getting >77 millions units from Sony. Even if we assume they get $5 per console that's only $16 millions in every quarter over a 6 years timeframe.

AMD will be lucky if the console busines adds $200 millions over the whole year.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:13 AM   #115
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The console business is only a very small part. In the next round AMD only getting >77 millions units from Sony. Even if we assume they get $5 per console that's only $16 millions in every quarter over a 6 years timeframe.

AMD will be lucky if the console busines adds $200 millions over the whole year.
Not sure if serious...

Are we forgetting something important? AMD supplying both the cpu and gpu?
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:13 AM   #116
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You don't need an MBA to see that this is bad news for computer enthusiasts. If AMD fails to fix themselves everyone will suffer due to a lack of competition in the market.
I think AMD is still recovering from the whole Phenom II / Bulldozer missteps and the sales reflect that.

APUs and Piledrivers seem to be doing better.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:16 AM   #117
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You better check again your tea leaves, because Kumar and Read are giving 1 billion for the entire embedded/semi-custom business. Consoles are not even half that if you ask CreSui.
Is this figure based on 2012, the worst year for consoles by a long shot in years, because of ageing hardware?

2013 is a console upgrade year. There's a lot of money coming AMD's way in Q4 2013.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:16 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by Eyefinity View Post
Not sure if serious...

Are we forgetting something important? AMD supplying both the cpu and gpu?
Double the revenue. It's far away from your 20% or $1 billion.

If you believe that Microsoft will go back to the "pay or die" contract they had with nVidia then i must say "Not sure if serious".
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:17 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD +8.65% saw its shares rise more than 7%, to $2.62 in early trading Wednesday. AMD got a lift after the company reported late Tuesday a fourth-quarter loss of $473 million, or 63 cents a share, compared with a loss of $177 million, or 24 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Revenue declined by 32% to $1.16 billion from last year's fourth quarter. Excluding one-time items, AMD would have lost 14 cents a share, while analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast the company to lose 21 cents a share on $1.15 billion in sales

Truly, it is amazing that they are still in business, i'd like to know where they find the cash. It sounds like magic to me. (intel, is that you?)
Cash infusions from random investors, 5B settlement with Intel over antitrust behavior, sold off all of their fabs, etc.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:34 AM   #120
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Is this figure based on 2012, the worst year for consoles by a long shot in years, because of ageing hardware?

2013 is a console upgrade year. There's a lot of money coming AMD's way in Q4 2013.
Oh dear, then *your* figures should be deeemed more reliable than the figures AMD execs are giving to investors because *you* think it's an upgrade year and because of that console revenues will skyrocket by a factor between four and five?
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:38 AM   #121
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Oh dear, then *your* figures should be deeemed more reliable than the figures AMD execs are giving to investors because *you* think it's an upgrade year and because of that console revenues will skyrocket by a factor between four and five?
So wait, now you believe the numbers AMD execs are giving out. Isn't it funny how things can change overnight!

I'm sure you've read every single article about it and can tell where the vast majority of that 20% is coming from by the end of the year. I certainly can.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:39 AM   #122
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Double the revenue. It's far away from your 20% or $1 billion.
Only if you start at your ridiculously low sum of $200 million.

$200 million for supplying cpu and gpu for all the consoles? Get real.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:44 AM   #123
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Only if you start at your ridiculously low sum of $200 million.

$200 million for supplying cpu and gpu for all the consoles? Get real.
How many consoles are sold every year? How much did AMD get from Nintendo and Microsoft before?
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:53 AM   #124
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How many consoles are sold every year? How much did AMD get from Nintendo and Microsoft before?
I don't know the exact numbers on what AMD got, however the entire embedded market for AMD was ~5% on ~$6 billion revenues. That's $300 million, the vast majority of which will be from the wii and xbox. Let's say it's only $200 million however...that's for 2 chips on reduced console prices.

With 2013 being an upgrade year, and AMD providing 5 chips, the number will be closer to $1 billion.

AMD says 20% of $5 billion revenues from embedded by the end of the year, that's $1 billion. What is the rest of AMD's embedded market? Slot machines? I don't see any huge uplift in those over the year do you? The obvious and very clear answer is that AMD expects a massive revenue increase from consoles in 2013.

This stuff is easy, and you all know it. You just don't want to believe it yet.
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Last edited by SiliconWars; 01-23-2013 at 11:56 AM.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:01 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Acanthus View Post
Cash infusions from random investors, 5B settlement with Intel over antitrust behavior, sold off all of their fabs, etc.
LOL. Where did you get $5 Billion from?
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Wow, AMD over promised and under delivered...Again. [on Kaveri]

They get credit for being consistent at least.
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