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Old 01-22-2013, 07:27 PM   #26
mrmt
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They wont throw 1bn+ investment through the window ,
be sure about it.
AMD? They didn't pump 1 billion in AMD.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:28 PM   #27
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All boils down to their ability to deliver Kabini/Temash.

10% higher pricing on this line compared to bobcat is largely
within reach , wich should help increase the GM in this sector.

Also , Vishera likely allow to sustain price on GPU less CPU.
10% more revenue in 40% of their CPU mix at the same COGS won't bring them to 1.3 billion, much less to 52% gross margins.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:33 PM   #28
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I dont know who is this Kumar and what he said
LOL!
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:36 PM   #29
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When Kabini replaces Brazos the margins will rise again. When the console money starts coming in that's a big bonus, and with 8x series graphics as well it's pretty obvious that 2013 is a good year technically for AMD and it should help to steady the ship.
Kabini will keep the things running, but it won't be the product that will save AMD. Kabini is too small, TAM is also small, it will feel the heat of IVB/HSW from Q2 and Q4 from Silvermont. Even if they can raise the gross margins by 10%, this will bring only 25-30 million per quarter.

Why are you so enthusiastic about console sales? Nvidia had the xbox sales and they never ever mentioned it as an important source of revenues, much less IBM.

The main reason for that is that console hardware is a race to the bottom, and volumes aren't that great. Even if you add up PS3 and Xbox360 sales per year, the shipments figures are lower than AMD's quarterly figures in 2011. Sure, it is better than nothing, but no salvation here.

As for graphics, since when AMD makes money with GPU?
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:37 PM   #30
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AMD? They didn't pump 1 billion in AMD.
How much did they pay to get 19% of the shares .?..

Most were bought at about 8$ or so.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:38 PM   #31
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Well it's no surprise that you are expecting further woe, however it's clear enough that AMD is at the end of their most important product cycles.

When Kabini replaces Brazos the margins will rise again. When the console money starts coming in that's a big bonus, and with 8x series graphics as well it's pretty obvious that 2013 is a good year technically for AMD and it should help to steady the ship.
It seems like AMD is always looking for some great product to give them the edge but it always is just a step out of reach.

In any case, opinion is so polarized regarding the future of AMD. AMD fans think some great breakthrough is going to put them at the top of some segment at least, while Intel fans are convinced they are going bankrupt. My best guess is that they will continue pretty much as they are now, sometimes making a small profit, and sometimes losing money. Sometimes jumping ahead in a given segment or two, but not being able to keep the lead because of the superior resources of Intel.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:45 PM   #32
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How much did they pay to get 19% of the shares .?..

Most were bought at about 8$ or so.
No, they didn't.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:48 PM   #33
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In any case, opinion is so polarized regarding the future of AMD. AMD fans think some great breakthrough is going to put them at the top of some segment at least, while Intel fans are convinced they are going bankrupt.
First it's not a matter of being Intel fan or not to believe that AMD will fail. Market is pretty much pricing liquidation at some point in the future.

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My best guess is that they will continue pretty much as they are now, sometimes making a small profit, and sometimes losing money.
AMD isn't "making a small profit" and "sometimes losing money", the company is bleeding cash like crazy and is shut out of the debt market, to the point that investors are now concerned that the company won't be able to sustain operations with the current rate of cash burn.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:50 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Eyefinity View Post
Well it's no surprise that you are expecting further woe, however it's clear enough that AMD is at the end of their most important product cycles.

When Kabini replaces Brazos the margins will rise again. When the console money starts coming in that's a big bonus, and with 8x series graphics as well it's pretty obvious that 2013 is a good year technically for AMD and it should help to steady the ship.
Eyefinity,

I assume if you believe this, you will be loading up on some AMD tomorrow?
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:53 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abwx View Post
I dont know who is this Kumar and what he said , i computed
grossly in a few seconds this number using the datas provided
by other members in the previous posts.

You have to account for exceptionnal restructuration charges
as well as for Glofo s badly negociated WSA , all expenses that
wont appear in 2013 , so it s quite possible that they will drastically
reduce the break even point but it can be only a timely solution.
Devinder Kumar is the CFO of AMD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VirtualLarry View Post
Can a company the size of AMD, survive on 15% or 23% gross margins? That doesn't sound so good to me, considering Intel had what, 58% gross margins?
It doesn't matter what their margins are, GAAP or non-GAAP, the fact they are losing money is all that is relevant. You can have 100% margins, but if you are still losing money then you are still destined for some very tough times ahead.

Last edited by Idontcare; 01-22-2013 at 07:57 PM.
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Old 01-22-2013, 07:59 PM   #36
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It seems like AMD is always looking for some great product to give them the edge but it always is just a step out of reach.

In any case, opinion is so polarized regarding the future of AMD. AMD fans think some great breakthrough is going to put them at the top of some segment at least, while Intel fans are convinced they are going bankrupt. My best guess is that they will continue pretty much as they are now, sometimes making a small profit, and sometimes losing money. Sometimes jumping ahead in a given segment or two, but not being able to keep the lead because of the superior resources of Intel.
Intel will not blink. The fact that the PC segment is not growing all that much, and given that shareholders are punishing the stock for not having expanded into other markets yet, means that Intel is on even more of a defensive than they were against the K8.

In short, AMD is done for in the PC space. That includes their BS about "Hondo" and "Temash".

It's funny how they don't give TDP values for the Temash BS they were showing off. They did in previous presentations -- 3.6W - 5.9W -- but of course, when you're presenting in a tent at CES, you can't tell your audience that your quad core downclocked-kabini will be within a watt of Intel's much superior "Haswell".

Show's over folks. Anybody who thinks AMD will "pull a K8" against an Intel this well-oiled is delusional or maybe just way to high on (h)opium.

The ARM guys aren't too much better off in the long run, but they all have profitable, high margin businesses to fund those little ventures.
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Old 01-22-2013, 08:12 PM   #37
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It's funny how they don't give TDP values for the Temash BS they were showing off. They did in previous presentations -- 3.6W - 5.9W --
How to contradict yourself in two lines while , as usual , trashing
AMD for imaginary reasons....
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Old 01-22-2013, 08:18 PM   #38
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It seems like AMD is always looking for some great product to give them the edge but it always is just a step out of reach.
Yes a bit like Medfield, whatever it's called now and what's the future one called again?
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Old 01-22-2013, 08:20 PM   #39
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It's funny how they don't give TDP values for the Temash BS they were showing off. They did in previous presentations -- 3.6W - 5.9W -- but of course, when you're presenting in a tent at CES, you can't tell your audience that your quad core downclocked-kabini will be within a watt of Intel's much superior "Haswell".
Yes I'm sure AMD had a specially designed Temash with 4GHz clocks at 12W just for CES.
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Old 01-22-2013, 08:43 PM   #40
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How to contradict yourself in two lines while , as usual , trashing
AMD for imaginary reasons....
I'm not "trashing AMD for imaginary reasons". They didn't give the TDP of the chip that was being demo'd. While OLDER slides had let slip the 3.6W - 5.9W range, the newer slides conveniently omit this, as if people who follow the industry will just "forget".

The one they showed was probably quad core @ 5.9W TDP. The ones that'll actually make any sort of pass in the iPad-like tablet space are likely dual core with significantly gimped everything.
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Old 01-22-2013, 08:46 PM   #41
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How to contradict yourself in two lines while , as usual , trashing
AMD for imaginary reasons....
It would be more fruitfull for the thread if you could give us a few
clues , if ever you have some about AMD's financial performance.
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Old 01-22-2013, 09:26 PM   #42
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Some "observations":

- gross margin non gaap was 39% sort of what I expected due to a) competitive pressures in a down market and b) old inventory which you usually get less for. I'd say IF they don't have more crap from the WSA, they should be able to do a lot better than 40% forecasted.

- @ 45% gross margin, break even before interest becomes $1B, $1.1B including. that assumes no more PAY to GF which of course would be a stupid assumption.

- small operating loss; GPU actually made a little money.

- did you see the list of non gaap items going back to 2011? Yikes.

- inventory down $200MM more or less as expected which helped cash.

- the current asset - current liability change (LTD and LTS virtually unchanged) around negative $400MM. That is a real loss. big #.

- whatever mubadala paid for those shares, it wasn't much.

- inventory going up in Q1 - they're obviously gearing up for something.

- wasn't able to listen in to the conference call and the transcript isn't up yet.

- trinity shipments doubled.

I'd say this is as bad as its going to get, notwithstanding the WSA...

Last edited by pablo87; 01-22-2013 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:00 PM   #43
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Yes a bit like Medfield, whatever it's called now and what's the future one called again?
Didnt say Intel did not do the same thing, but their desktop and server processors are state of the art. As for AM one word--Bulldozer. Or would you rather I brought up the APUs which have been mediocre at best. Or how about heterogeneous computing and GPGPU? Might work out, but I would not buy their stock based on it.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:01 PM   #44
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On the plus(?) side, extremely high levels of attrition are reducing their costs. Much of the Jaguar design team is now at Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, etc (including the chief architect, who gave the Hot Chips talk back in August).
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:06 PM   #45
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On the plus(?) side, extremely high levels of attrition are reducing their costs. Much of the Jaguar design team is now at Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, etc (including the chief architect, who gave the Hot Chips talk back in August).
Oh boy, really?

EDIT: I looked him up. Jeff Rupley. According to Linkedin, still at AMD.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:10 PM   #46
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Oh boy, really?

EDIT: I looked him up. Jeff Rupley. According to Linkedin, still at AMD.
There is one person on these forums who would know exactly where people from that team are working now, and you just called shens on him?
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:38 PM   #47
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Nowhere to go but up.

2013 will be better. AMD will be healthy again. They're finally making good decisions with the future in mind.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:48 PM   #48
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AMD is completely doomed!!1

Oh wait, the stock is up after hours - the street thinks otherwise.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:54 PM   #49
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I like how people downplay the stock price when AMD is doing poorly, and play it up when they're doing well on the stock market.
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Old 01-22-2013, 10:56 PM   #50
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Probably because stocks tank a lot more quickly than they recover, so a loss in share price is not particularly indicative of any company's bottom line.
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