Kinect 2 - an unstoppable juggernaut?

[psoomah]

I'm finding when I bring up Kinect 2 people generally just haven't thought through the potential that kind of resolution accompanied by algorithms and programming that can take advantage of it will bring to the table.

Hand movement is utterly intuitive, very fast, extremely accurate and capable of nearly infinite expression. As a controller mechanism it will have an intuitive speed, accuracy and range of subtle depth and breadth no mechanical controller can hope to approach. All that is needed is a mechanism that can READ those hand movements with sufficient resolution, provide sufficient processing power to reduce the lag to near imperceptibility and the programming to make it work on screen. Microsoft with current technology can do the first two and just needs a good start on the third.

The beauty of the Kinect 2 is it will continue to bear fruit far into the future as programmers continue to tap into what is an all but limitless potential.

A child can become a character, be utterly immersed, in a way not possible with mechanical controllers. A character than can mirror every movement and subtle gesture, every facial expression. An art creation program that will allow a child infinite expression to create and manipulate in three dimensional screen space using their own hands and body. Learning to play musical 'air' instruments so accurately it can translate into actual physical instruments. Playing an infinitely variable spatially massive 'Theremin' with their fingers, hands, arms, torso and legs. It's a vast horizon of potential. My imaginative musings have gone far beyond what my words can easily convey.

'Hard core' gamers will be able to aim, move, switch gear, access and select from standardized menus with an intuitive speed and accuracy keyboard and mouse players won't be able to match. Granted the younger set will have a notable kinesthetic advantage, able to learn and accurately use such a system far faster than the older will. The full potential won't be available across the boards immediately, the programming challenge will be steep, but it will evolve over time to become so available.

Standardized menus because it seems logical Microsoft will standardize a set of hand, arm and body movements and spoken commands across games. A defined set of gestures and voice commands to open and interact with menus, pause games, move characters on a screen, change weapons and so on to provide a much needed continuity in such an unlimited landscape.
That is the demonstrated potential I think Nintendo with it's Wii U will find itself contending with in June or so of next year. This is why I think the press, tech and mainstream, will be utterly blown away when they see what the Kinect 2 will be bringing to the table and talk of the Kinect 2 will dominate the conversation thru the holiday season. When people are able to actually SEE the potential of Kinect 2 in action, it will pique imaginations and launch endless fevered speculation.

If Microsoft is far enough along with it's algorithms and programming to convincingly demonstrate a Kinect 2 player dominating a keyboard mouse player in a twitch shooter - well that's just game over. Lord knows what Sony can bring to the table to stay competitive.

So it is I see a very real potential of Wii U sales falling off a cliff by July of 2013 and Nintendo looking at console Armageddon and a river of red ink into the foreseeable future if it tries to stay in the console space.
That is why I see Nintendo out of console hardware by 2015 and a very real potential of Sony, with it's already fairly dire and steadily worsening financial situation, following suit, leaving Microsoft and Valve as the two gorillas in the console space.

But hey, playing Nintendo and Sony first party games on Kinect 2 or SteamBox would be a blast!

ps. for the 'Uh ... the Kinect SUCKS so Kinect 2 will SUCK too!' types out there, and from my experience to date there are a lot of you, hey, feel free to reactively generalize based on your 'gut' feeling. After all, where would the profiteer's need for military cannon fodder be without you?

[sygyzy]

I am not sure I understand where this treatise is coming from. Have they already released information about Kinect 2? Or, are you just writing about some kind of fantasy?

[psoomah]

Originally Posted by sygyzy

I am not sure I understand where this treatise is coming from. Have they already released information about Kinect 2? Or, are you just writing about some kind of fantasy?

I enjoy thinking things through and extrapolating into the future. I do it a lot. Keeps boredom at the door.

It's a rational extrapolation based on the capabilities of Kinect, which had double the resolution actually used due to bandwidth limitations, the rapidly expanding potential demonstrated using the Kinect for Computers, the rumored (and logical) resolution of a Kinect 2, the amount of cheap processing power available, the removal of the bandwidth limitations of the Kinect, Microsoft's programming resources and deep pockets, the years Microsoft has had to work on a Kinect 2, and so on and so forth across an array o factors and data sets that went into my calculations, lines of thought and imaginative musings.

Granted, the plodding unimaginative status quo loving types might see it as 'some kind of fantasy'.

[RedRooster]

You're being far too generous and optimistic. Everyone will agree with me, and there is no chance it will completely replace a controller for anything but jumping and dancing games. Kinect doesn't suck, for what it is.

Kinect 4 or 5 might do what you think, we shall see.

[gorcorps]

The OP reads exactly like every single motion control gimmick that has been released to date. Nothing will change...

[American Gunner]

I never bought a Kinect, and have no interest in one to this day. If anything, I would get it for my kids to use, but they are into playing with actual toys and playing outside, and I don't have any problem with that. I really hope Kinect isn't the main focal point for the next Xbox, because I won't buy in to it.

[Kev]

Originally Posted by RedRooster

You're being far too generous and optimistic. Everyone will agree with me, and there is no chance it will completely replace a controller for anything but jumping and dancing games. Kinect doesn't suck, for what it is.

Kinect 4 or 5 might do what you think, we shall see.

Kinect 5 = mind control.

[KeithTalent]

Would be nice if what you said is true, but my guess is Rooster is closer to reality.

I have zero interest in any Xbox games outside of Kinect and while I have no real issues with how it works right now, making things a bit more precise, with a greater range of games available to play, would be awesome. I can only hope they do make this a focus going forward.

KT

[cmdrdredd]

Originally Posted by RedRooster

You're being far too generous and optimistic. Everyone will agree with me, and there is no chance it will completely replace a controller for anything but jumping and dancing games. Kinect doesn't suck, for what it is.

Kinect 4 or 5 might do what you think, we shall see.

Originally Posted by gorcorps

The OP reads exactly like every single motion control gimmick that has been released to date. Nothing will change...

Originally Posted by American Gunner

I never bought a Kinect, and have no interest in one to this day. If anything, I would get it for my kids to use, but they are into playing with actual toys and playing outside, and I don't have any problem with that. I really hope Kinect isn't the main focal point for the next Xbox, because I won't buy in to it.

These three quotes sum up the entire thread.

This technology isn't ready and won't be for many years. At best you get some mildly fun party games at worst you get Kinect Star Wars. I'll take NONE of it and most gamers agree which is why you have so many people saying it sucks, cause it kinda does.

OP, you have to work for Microsoft. If Kinect was so great why doesn't the games sell or even work right most of the time?

Lastly if I want to jump around and move to play a game instead of relax, I'd go outside and ride BMX, or run, or play football or hockey, go diving in the Keys, or go to the gym, practice martial arts(I do these things too). I'd do anything but play a video game if I wanted to be active. Why? Simply because when it's time for my hobby of video games, it means relaxing on the couch or a comfy chair for hours doing nothing but drinking beer or soda and eating some type of junk food. I'm with American Gunner, if the entire focus of the next xbox is Kinect then you can count me out no matter what and I'll drop money on a WiiU the day after the announcement/presentation. Then I'll reserve a PS4 and all the Xbox games that suck on Kinect can be played on my PC. Lets face it, besides Forza, Halo, and Gears of War the Xbox has nothing you can't play somewhere else and PC being the main one for me. You know why I don't think this will happen though? Halo...they are making another trilogy and you just cannot play halo with Kinect and even if you tried, competition would be garbage without a controller (mouse and KB would be ok though)

[Dumac]

If you've actually used the Kinect for any large amount of time, your hopes for Kinect 2 should be a little more...realistic.

[psoomah]

Originally Posted by cmdrdredd

OP, you have to work for Microsoft. If Kinect was so great why doesn't the games sell or even work right most of the time?

Nope. I just enjoy the process of extrapolating from data to hand. And letting the chips fall where they may. If Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft held different hands, I would be reaching different conclusions. Such thread posts are of necessity somewhat truncated versions of my thoughts. Following my stream of reasoning I could easily expand this thread post to several pages ... but that's not feasible is it?

What I can do is take a reasoned argument addressing some specific point I made, such as this one ...

*****Hand movement is utterly intuitive, very fast, extremely accurate and capable of nearly infinite expression. As a controller mechanism it will have an intuitive speed, accuracy and range of subtle depth and breadth no mechanical controller can hope to approach.*****

... and use it as a whetstone to hone and expand my reasoning and thoughts, pro and con, and learn a great deal in the process. And presumably the person on the other side of such an exchange would also.

Needless to say that is quite the rare occurrence.

Some variation of reason free reactive bashing being by far the most usual response.

ps. There obviously will be a vast difference in capability between the Kinect and the Kinect 2. Sensors with far higher resolution, able to discern subtle finger and facial muscle movement, able to accurately track four people simultaneously, allow playing while sitting down, requiring far less distance to operate, having many times the bandwidth to move the sensor data to processing power that dwarfs what is available in the Xbox 360 and Microsoft having several years to refine the technology and work on the algorithms and programming. And then the Kinect was so bandwidth and processor limited, it couldn't take advantage of the 2X sensor resolution data the sensors were capable of.

Of course for most that all adds up to the Kinect 2 being a functional clone of the Kinect with maybe a little bit more power and since the Kinect was somewhat of a failure, why of course, the Kinect 2 will be a failure too and totally not worth bothering with.

You know what I mean!

[Doppel]

I don't believe Kinect 2 will be nearly as good as the OP has said. To date every single system like this sucks to some varying degree.

That said, I appreciate the OP's vision and in fact I completely agree with him about the incredible possibilities of gesture interpretation. In time, computers will be able to immediately and accurate interpret what we say and how we move. To date none can do it; all they can do is measure what commands we put into controllers or keyboards.

So whether it is Kinect 2, 3, 5, whatever, eventually this technology will evolve and will be as powerful as the OP thinks it will be, IMO.

[psoomah]

Originally Posted by Doppel

I don't believe Kinect 2 will be nearly as good as the OP has said. To date every single system like this sucks to some varying degree.

That said, I appreciate the OP's vision and in fact I completely agree with him about the incredible possibilities of gesture interpretation. In time, computers will be able to immediately and accurate interpret what we say and how we move. To date none can do it; all they can do is measure what commands we put into controllers or keyboards.

So whether it is Kinect 2, 3, 5, whatever, eventually this technology will evolve and will be as powerful as the OP thinks it will be, IMO.

What, specifically, would keep the Kinect 2 from being that powerful?

[RedRooster]

$$$$$$$$

[cmdrdredd]

Originally Posted by Doppel

I don't believe Kinect 2 will be nearly as good as the OP has said. To date every single system like this sucks to some varying degree.

That said, I appreciate the OP's vision and in fact I completely agree with him about the incredible possibilities of gesture interpretation. In time, computers will be able to immediately and accurate interpret what we say and how we move. To date none can do it; all they can do is measure what commands we put into controllers or keyboards.

So whether it is Kinect 2, 3, 5, whatever, eventually this technology will evolve and will be as powerful as the OP thinks it will be, IMO.

Star Trek reference: "Computer, play back the last audio transmission from the ship"

Maybe one day...

[Dumac]

Originally Posted by psoomah

What, specifically, would keep the Kinect 2 from being that powerful?

What prevents us from traveling faster than light?

[reallyscrued]

Originally Posted by psoomah

...people generally just haven't thought through the potential that kind of resolution accompanied by algorithms and programming that can take advantage of it will bring to the table.

What kind of resolution accompanied by which algorithms alongside whose programming exactly?

...do you even know what these words mean?

Originally Posted by psoomah

I just enjoy the process of extrapolating from data to hand.

Originally Posted by psoomah

I enjoy thinking things through and extrapolating into the future. ...

It's a rational extrapolation based on the capabilities of Kinect...

I'm going to say "no".

[Doppel]

Originally Posted by psoomah

What, specifically, would keep the Kinect 2 from being that powerful?

Just my assumption that since every motion detection system so far has been a disappointment the safe money is on the Kinect 2 being no different. I do believe at some point these systems won't suck, though.

Motion detection has some great possibilities. It's not likely to replace controllers entirely, even when perfected, though. Can you imagine playing a game for 2-3 hours and having to talk and/or move around the entire time? Doesn't sound overly relaxing

[pennhunter482]

Kinect in the future may depend upon the housing market strangely enough. If smaller homes really become the trend people in these smaller homes won't have room for Kinect.

[Doppel]

Originally Posted by pennhunter482

Kinect in the future may depend upon the housing market strangely enough. If smaller homes really become the trend people in these smaller homes won't have room for Kinect.

Yep. Both of my viewing areas have huge coffee tables in the way. It's not possible to move in front of the tv without moving them...

[kazaam]

I don't want to move around or anything. I vote controller.

[IamDavid]

Hardware could be there tomorrow, no way the programming would be close.

[exdeath]

Give me a button that I can press instantly with millisecond precision. I don't want to have to flail around or shake something and die because it didn't register. Sick of all these motion control gimmicks trying to reel in the casuals.

[JasonCoder]

Originally Posted by cmdrdredd

Star Trek reference: "Computer, play back the last audio transmission from the ship"

Maybe one day...

Right, and maybe one day we were all going to have tricorders... wait...

[Gooberlx2]

I see future Kinects having more impact, and getting more use, with MS's home media agenda than any games.

I almost never play any of our Kinect games unless, except party games on the rare occasions we have company. I never use the Kinect features of any traditional games I have.

My wife and I both use Kinect, constantly, to voice navigate the xbox and playback/control media. If MS supports some sort of whole home integration, I can easily see Kinect existing in a low power state and controlling lighting, thermostats and other smart appliances. Preset response to, say, the number of people in a room, who they are and their seating arrangements for playing movies vs games vs whatever. Voice/Video chat/call integration with Skype, etc, etc...