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Old 12-20-2012, 08:21 AM   #101
Idontcare
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Originally Posted by cytg111 View Post
I wish you all would get on the same page as your own local RockStar(tm) Elan Musk, and drive this revolution in the frontseat rather than the back.
Energy policy, when left to the minds of the general public, would have us burn anything and everything in sight. 10,000+ yrs of history speaks to this.

If you want leadership in energy policy it takes a leader who can put their vision to action. We have a president who could make energy policy the top priority (or at least a higher priority) of the country if he so wanted...as could have any president before him.

Evolution is quick, but not that quick. The voting masses that make up society today are no more innately intelligent than the masses that supported a roman government that had Rome burn while playing a fiddle or two.

Is it really all that surprising that history is repeating itself, the people are the same, we just have fancier gadgets to entertain ourselves with while setting ourselves up for the fall.

Burn, baby, burn...whatever we can find, wherever we can find it!
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Old 12-20-2012, 08:39 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Idontcare View Post
Energy policy, when left to the minds of the general public, would have us burn anything and everything in sight. 10,000+ yrs of history speaks to this.

If you want leadership in energy policy it takes a leader who can put their vision to action. We have a president who could make energy policy the top priority (or at least a higher priority) of the country if he so wanted...as could have any president before him.

Evolution is quick, but not that quick. The voting masses that make up society today are no more innately intelligent than the masses that supported a roman government that had Rome burn while playing a fiddle or two.

Is it really all that surprising that history is repeating itself, the people are the same, we just have fancier gadgets to entertain ourselves with while setting ourselves up for the fall.

Burn, baby, burn...whatever we can find, wherever we can find it!
This is also what makes the governments in Singapore, China etc so strong. Its run by technocrats and they usually have a vision far beyond the simple mindset of daily needs. Not saying we should replace democracy with it. But we should look and learn.

The US president on his or hers second term atleast got the ability to say anything essentially, popular or not. However everyone else in the system dont. They all fear the next election and are busy holding on to the seat like it was life itself.

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Old 12-20-2012, 10:11 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Idontcare View Post
Energy policy, when left to the minds of the general public, would have us burn anything and everything in sight. 10,000+ yrs of history speaks to this.

If you want leadership in energy policy it takes a leader who can put their vision to action. We have a president who could make energy policy the top priority (or at least a higher priority) of the country if he so wanted...as could have any president before him.

Evolution is quick, but not that quick. The voting masses that make up society today are no more innately intelligent than the masses that supported a roman government that had Rome burn while playing a fiddle or two.

Is it really all that surprising that history is repeating itself, the people are the same, we just have fancier gadgets to entertain ourselves with while setting ourselves up for the fall.

Burn, baby, burn...whatever we can find, wherever we can find it!
- You know, when the commoner pulls up aside that porche-whatever in his commoner-sedan-model-s (http://www.teslamotors.com/models) and pulls away 0-60 in 5 seconds and having 300 miles on the "tank", i hope heads will start to turn.
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Old 12-20-2012, 04:04 PM   #104
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This is also what makes the governments in Singapore, China etc so strong. Its run by technocrats and they usually have a vision far beyond the simple mindset of daily needs. Not saying we should replace democracy with it. But we should look and learn.

The US president on his or hers second term atleast got the ability to say anything essentially, popular or not. However everyone else in the system dont. They all fear the next election and are busy holding on to the seat like it was life itself.

I can't believe you just put Singapore and China together. Singapore is relatively noncorrupt compared to other countries. China? It really depends on who you are talking about, but there is quite a bit of corruption all the way up to the senior ranks, and the biggest decisions are not any one person's. You don't rise up by being a revolutionary/rebel in China, you rise by not stepping on toes. If they do have a better energy policy it is not for the reasons you imply.
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Old 12-20-2012, 05:53 PM   #105
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I can't believe you just put Singapore and China together. Singapore is relatively noncorrupt compared to other countries. China? It really depends on who you are talking about, but there is quite a bit of corruption all the way up to the senior ranks, and the biggest decisions are not any one person's. You don't rise up by being a revolutionary/rebel in China, you rise by not stepping on toes. If they do have a better energy policy it is not for the reasons you imply.
Both countries are run by single parties with technocrates. And its exactly why their governments are better and more efficient to handle major changes.
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Old 12-20-2012, 06:05 PM   #106
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Both countries are run by single parties with technocrates. And its exactly why their governments are better and more efficient to handle major changes.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...urrentPage=all
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Old 12-20-2012, 06:20 PM   #107
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eschede_train_disaster
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17700051

Your point?
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Old 12-20-2012, 06:27 PM   #108
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Did you actually read the article?
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Old 12-20-2012, 07:14 PM   #109
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Did you actually read the article?
Yes. And I still dont get your point.

I assume you want to turn it an issue about corruption. So what do you call lobbyism that pays politicians to change laws to the benefit of those companies or private people wealthy enough?

China is still a developing country. They have done in 30 years what current industrialized nations used over 200 years on.

I think you got completely confused/derailed in terms of the original context. Its about the resolveness of a government. Take the US for example and the fiscal cliff. Its like a kindergarden fight. And it hurts the US economy. Not to mention they look like a joke to the world community. And what are they essentially fighting over? Their next elections so they can keep their seats. Most of them only care about their own rearend. Not the country. (Do I also even have to mention filibusters that are directly antidemocrative?).

And thats the problem we currently have with democracy. Specially in the information age where charisma and spin is valued higher than actual competence. Democracy is the collective wisdom, or the collective stupidity. Single party countries like China and Singapore dont suffer from this. Not that I want their form of government. But as I said, we could learn some.

Even George Soros says the same:
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Mr. Soros even went so far as to say that at times China wields more power than the U.S. because of the political gridlock in Washington. "Today China has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government than the United States," he said, a hard statement for him to make because he spent much of his life donating to anti-communist groups in Eastern Europe.
I can see it here in Denmark too. We vote utterly incompetent people in from all parties. But they either got a pretty face or good charisma and good with the rethorics. (Supported by their armies of spindoctors.). And the most important function for them is to keep their seats for all cost.
Western politicians rarely got any work experience anymore as wel. Yet they are supposed to know how average joe functions and how the business life is.
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Old 12-22-2012, 08:11 AM   #110
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Still think 14nm is the end of Tick-Tock, just based on costs alone. So they will need that Ireland fab eventually when (nearly) all of their products are on 14 nm at the same time.
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Old 12-22-2012, 08:34 AM   #111
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Still think 14nm is the end of Tick-Tock, just based on costs alone. So they will need that Ireland fab eventually when (nearly) all of their products are on 14 nm at the same time.
Absolutely nothing point to that.
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Old 12-22-2012, 10:00 AM   #112
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Absolutely nothing point to that.
That's true. But if it's getting very expensive to do 14 nm, esp without EUV, what do you think 10 nm is going to cost? Going 3 years at 14 nm makes a lot of sense, especially at a time when the competition is talking about fake 14 nm.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:08 AM   #113
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That's true. But if it's getting very expensive to do 14 nm, esp without EUV, what do you think 10 nm is going to cost? Going 3 years at 14 nm makes a lot of sense, especially at a time when the competition is talking about fake 14 nm.
Volume increases, hence the offset. 450mm wafers will also decrease the cost significantly. The "fake" 16nm that you refer to is to save time mainly since they are so far behind.

Nobody can afford to stop the brutal hunting for a lower process node. Those that do dies of, its as simple as that. Even with 450mm, Intel says half the semiconductor companies will go belly up because they cant stay in the game. Ones dead is the others bread.

Oh, and Intels fabs are a goldmine to put it mildly.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:18 AM   #114
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This post is somewhat off topic but relative to some of the other posts on here is extremely on topic.

TICK TOCK has served Intel well but if memory serves, TICK was not always high volume...eg. P5.

Financially, there was no rationale for volume TICK this go around since SB is still good enough for 98% of the market. Just a waste of a perfectly good design and process.

And since from a simple pov, none of the capex of the past 2 years has been depreciated (capex 2011 + capex 2012 ~ fixed assets), it means those IB Celerons launching in Q1 2013 ($40 ASP?) will be selling for Intel's annual capex/implied depreciation ($12B/300MM processors = $40), nothing left for fab operations, packaging or gross profit to cover overhead...

But then marketing can keep harping their mantra: "fastest ramp in history"

Sadly for shareholders, marketing trumps finance.

To add strategic injury to financial injury, those monies and efforts should have been expended on smartphones and tablets...

But fear not ye faithful, governance at Intel is alive and well, the CEO has resigned. And 14nm ramp has been slowed, obviously for financial reasons.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:18 AM   #115
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Still think 14nm is the end of Tick-Tock, just based on costs alone. So they will need that Ireland fab eventually when (nearly) all of their products are on 14 nm at the same time.
The expense of node-shrinking is not in the creation of the node itself, see TSMC's annual R&D budget for an idea of what it takes to make advanced nodes; rather, the expense of creating the IC designs for the advanced nodes is what is spiraling out of control (see AMD's and Nvidia's annual R&D budget for an idea of what it takes to design/validate IC's on advanced nodes).



Intel isn't leading the R&D pack because of their efforts to have 14nm production worthy by 2014...its leading the R&D pack because of their efforts to have 14nm chips designed, validated, and ready to go into production in 2014.

This is also why you see companies like AMD publicly stating they are going to slow down their own cadence of node-adoption (even though they are fabless and the newer nodes will be available at the foundries).

Quote:
AMD - We Would Like to Use Process Technologies for Longer Periods of Time.

“It is getting tougher and tougher to get to new nodes. 28nm might be with us a little longer than people [think]. [It will be a while] before they jump into 20nm node or 16nm or 14nm,” said Devinder Kumar, the corporate controller and the interim chief financial officer, at Raymond James IT supply chain conference.

“Our vision is extending the lifetime of nodes. I think we showed with our Brazos processors that were on 40nm for a long time and we competed very effectively with other products on the market that were two nodes ahead of us. We could sell at a nice cost profile and the functionality that the consumer wants today. […] So, no nodes transition is easy. […] Earlier this year we have brought our GPU products to 28nm. You will see [Kabini and Temash] APUs in the first half of next year on the 28nm. […] We have not said when we are going to 20nm, which would be the next node,” said Ruth Cotter, vice president of investor relations at the Raymond James conference.

source
Notice that is the CFO talking about gating the pace of node-adoption for AMD, not the CTO or prominent technology leader of any regard from within AMD.

The mind is willing (the CTO), but the pocketbook is not (the CFO).

I think this is a fundamental misunderstanding within the laymen community, the thinking that Intel has a node-lead over its competitors because it was more committed to investing more heavily in process node development. That isn't what gave them a node advantage, the node advantage came at the prioritization of R&D funding to develop the IC's themselves that would be produced on the leading edge node...that is where the real cost was incurred.

Intel will be the first to have 14nm, and 10nm, in production because they have the volumes to justify the R&D expense of creating/designing/validating the ICs for those nodes in the first place. Not too many other fabless companies have the resources to devote towards designing 14nm or 10nm chips. AMD doesn't, and Nvidia keeps crowing about things in a way that makes me think they are on the edge of the bubble as well.
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Old 12-22-2012, 11:29 AM   #116
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This post is somewhat off topic but relative to some of the other posts on here is extremely on topic.

TICK TOCK has served Intel well but if memory serves, TICK was not always high volume...eg. P5.

Financially, there was no rationale for volume TICK this go around since SB is still good enough for 98% of the market. Just a waste of a perfectly good design and process.

And since from a simple pov, none of the capex of the past 2 years has been depreciated (capex 2011 + capex 2012 ~ fixed assets), it means those IB Celerons launching in Q1 2013 ($40 ASP?) will be selling for Intel's annual capex/implied depreciation ($12B/300MM processors = $40), nothing left for fab operations, packaging or gross profit to cover overhead...

But then marketing can keep harping their mantra: "fastest ramp in history"

Sadly for shareholders, marketing trumps finance.

To add strategic injury to financial injury, those monies and efforts should have been expended on smartphones and tablets...

But fear not ye faithful, governance at Intel is alive and well, the CEO has resigned.
Yes, clearly Intel needs to take its lead from AMD. They are fooling themselves into thinking their current path is going to lead them to continued profits.
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:17 PM   #117
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Intel will be the first to have 14nm, and 10nm, in production because they have the volumes to justify the R&D expense of creating/designing/validating the ICs for those nodes in the first place.
Do they? That's what spawned this thread in the first place - Intel realized they don't have the volume to support having the Ireland fab, at least at the time they thought.
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:27 PM   #118
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Do they? That's what spawned this thread in the first place - Intel realized they don't have the volume to support having the Ireland fab, at least at the time they thought.
Ireland got delayed due to an additional 1.1mio sqf expansion to D1X (14nm). Putting D1X up to twice the size. A 400000 sqf manufactoring support buillding is also being constructed to support D1X. And a 1mio sqf office and manufactoring support building called RA4. Plus the D1Ce conversion. All this is an investment higher than the original 3billion$ D1X(part 1) that will be completed next year.

No volume to support it? Hah....Remember to look at all operations and not just one. Else you easily get the wrong perspective and come to a wrong conclusion.

In short, Intel expanded its 14nm capabilities. Not the other way around. Plus Fab42(14nm) is also an entire new fab.
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Old 12-22-2012, 12:39 PM   #119
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Yes, clearly Intel needs to take its lead from AMD. They are fooling themselves into thinking their current path is going to lead them to continued profits.
Intel could really do with a stronger mobile presence. I think they have made it clear that they won't give up though, and will push for more of a mobile presence even if it erodes margins.
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Old 12-22-2012, 01:10 PM   #120
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Ireland got delayed due to an additional 1.1mio sqf expansion to D1X (14nm).
I thought D1X is a development fab. It would make sense to expand the development fab if they are going to have more products at 14 nm at the same time than originally expected. And they are going to have more products at 14 nm because they are sticking with it longer.
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Old 12-22-2012, 01:19 PM   #121
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I thought D1X is a development fab. It would make sense to expand the development fab if they are going to have more products at 14 nm at the same time than originally expected. And they are going to have more products at 14 nm because they are sticking with it longer.
First mass production and the first chips always comes from the oregon fabs. D1X is 45000 wafers per month. It will now be 90000. Its is also ready for 450mm.

They are both research and mass production fabs.

Quote:
Mass production starts in an Oregon development fab -- the industry's term for a wafer fabrication facility or computer chip factory -- with the manufacturing process later duplicated at other leading-edge fabs.
It has always been this way.
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Old 12-24-2012, 04:11 AM   #122
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now Samsung annonces they have taped out 14nm FinFETs with the help of Synopsys (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=29476). Obviously they're not a threat to Intel in the CPU world, but Intel does have plans (and proven hardware) in the mobile world.
Can Samsung use this process to make CPUs/GPUs for say...AMD?
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Old 12-24-2012, 05:47 AM   #123
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now Samsung annonces they have taped out 14nm FinFETs with the help of Synopsys (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=29476).
They've done nothing other than tape out a 14nm chip design. Unfortunately that doesn't mean anything about their actual fab process. Samsung is already trailing TSMC (TSMC had 28nm at least half a year before Samsung had 32nm).
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Can Samsung use this process to make CPUs/GPUs for say...AMD?
If AMD wanted to. But they won't. AMD is contractually obligated to use GloFo.
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