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Old 11-14-2012, 11:47 AM   #101
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I can't imagine how messed up AMD must be on the inside to be less focused than their giant competitor.
this link gives us a good picture:
http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD-t...09-83957.shtml
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:54 AM   #102
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That it does, if I had to guess I think Dirk was carrying a bit of "real men design server CPUs" attitude from his history with DEC Alphas.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:59 AM   #103
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I was aware they had problems with their joint venture with UMC, but I wasn't aware of that they didn't invest on purpose on 65nm and Barcelona. How can a CPU company executive delay a roadmap and break momentum to save cash and then later pay in cash a GPU company?

I remember at the time rumors that AMD first tried to merge with Nvidia but failed, supposedly because of JHH arrogance. I wonder how could JHH be more arrogant than Hector & Co. When faced with that kind of arrogant executive JHH should have given a price out of reach of AMD pockets, then AMD went to ATI, management had the same impression and decided they would not get along with such a pricks and then put another outrageous price on the table, unfortunately one AMD could barely afford. Surprisingly, Hector took the bait and cashed out ATI investors.

Now I must agree with you, Hector was criminally damaging to AMD, far more than Rory "execution" Read can ever be.
If the rumors are to be believed, it was actually Hector who torpedoed the merger talks with Nvidia because Jensen wanted to be CEO of the post-merged business and Ruiz refused to step down.

ATI was AMD's second choice, a choice made because of Ruiz's ego and not because it was the most tactically sound strategy.

And speaking of the acquisition, that was shady as well. Dirk led a special analyst/investor meeting to talk up AMD's growth prognosis so AMD could secure the financing needed to lock in the ATI purchase.

Literally weeks after the meeting (which was successful, based on analyst assessments of AMD's projections, investors and creditors approved the credit for AMD to acquire ATI) AMD announced a surprise 11th hour guidance correction for the quarter (Q4 2006) in which they not only negated all growth projections provided to the analysts just weeks earlier but they were then projecting a market share loss as well.

It was about as shady/slimy as it gets when it comes to skirting SEC regs on market manipulation (AMD needed its stock price to be above a specific valuation in order to secure the credit, which the analysts ensured happened with their AMD ratings following the bogus analyst meeting).

It was one of things, yet again, where in hindsight once we came to know Hector's criminal activities involving the insider trading and hedge funds that it really is no surprise that he was up to other shenanigans as well.

Last edited by Idontcare; 11-14-2012 at 12:07 PM. Reason: edit: had wrong quarter for the meeting
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:06 PM   #104
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Perhaps AMD has more in common with OCZ than we realize? (At least, AMD products WORK though.)
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:07 PM   #105
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You know, a JHH led AMNvidia would probably have been a pretty potent combination. But the consumer probably dodged the creation of a fractured PC market. I imagine games would basically require an AMNvidia system to run well if we extrapolate upon Nvidia's GPU tie ins.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:20 PM   #106
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You know, a JHH led AMNvidia would probably have been a pretty potent combination. But the consumer probably dodged the creation of a fractured PC market. I imagine games would basically require an AMNvidia system to run well if we extrapolate upon Nvidia's GPU tie ins.
With AMD's assets under his control, a JHH-led AMD would have seriously challenged Intel. That was right around the time when Jensen was in his "open a can of whoop-ass" mood.

Whatever x86 CPU he would have released you can be assured it would have gulped down 300W and been so large that they actually had to MCM two separate wafers just to get the CPU under one IHS lid

But it would have made Intel fold its desktop CPU plans faster than you can say "Larrabee" and Intel would be the dominant ARM manufacturer right now (but locked into a rambus-only databus of course)
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Old 11-14-2012, 01:32 PM   #107
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Whatever x86 CPU he would have released you can be assured it would have gulped down 300W and been so large that they actually had to MCM two separate wafers just to get the CPU under one IHS lid
We would see a FX 16300 "moar cores" edition (32 cores 5.0GHz) coupled with a MCM Fermi, all that powered by 3MW PSUs that would become mainstream, and FX 8150 would suddenly become FX 9150 in the following year, and we would see JHH with a woodscrew Bulldozer MB... I'm not sure if we would have a much better company than DAAMIT, but we certainly would have a more creative company.
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Old 11-14-2012, 02:05 PM   #108
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Personally I think that AMD's situation is almost entirely intentional so that valuable IP and other investments get sold off at a later time. Second there is way to many VP for a company that size and it doesn't take a great leap of the imagination that there are a few leeches in management that are only there to suck the company dry. Overall one can almost count on the company being broken up when the money runs out and most of the important IP gets sold off to pay off debts. Nvidia and Apple are most likely buyers for the valuable parts of AMD alongside with Intel. In the long run the market is on a slippery slope as the global slowly implodes. It will be fun to watch when the Euro zone economically fails and the world markets crash.
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Old 11-14-2012, 03:45 PM   #109
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Really? You don't work on a PC? I duno, my PC is the central hub of my existence (not really, but kinda). I mean, its what I plug any mobile stuff into for charging and data transfer, including cameras. I use it for excel, photoshop, solidworks, games, email, browsing, finding jobs sometimes, social networking and other things for sure. Some of these things can be done with a mobile device, but the PC can do them all and offers an insane ammount of flexibility. Having a keyboard, mouse and large monitor combined with a powerful machine with lots of storage space makes for a proper command and control center for my whole life. How I could ever do away with that in any capacity is beyond me. I will never be able to trade that for a mobile device, complete with fingers tripping over eachother trying to function on a tiny, virtual keyboard etc.
Agreed.

As I age my pc usage is going up I do far more on a PC now than I ever did at 20. Mostly work related and entertainment, to be stuck with a low power mobile device or some tablet would put a huge hit on my efficiency.

I do own a laptop and tablet but they wil never replace the high back leather chair proper mouse and keyboard + large IPS monitor.
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Old 11-14-2012, 03:50 PM   #110
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You know, a JHH led AMNvidia would probably have been a pretty potent combination. But the consumer probably dodged the creation of a fractured PC market. I imagine games would basically require an AMNvidia system to run well if we extrapolate upon Nvidia's GPU tie ins.
I originally wanted intel to buy ati.

I would love to see NV buy out AMD cause they don't have any X86 currently.

And intel to take the ati side scrap that HD4000 and replace it with radeons.
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Old 11-14-2012, 04:00 PM   #111
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You only lose everything if they file for bankruptcy. If they are sold you will receive payment based on the negotiated price per share.
Well, not everything in bankruptcy, but whatever is left after bond holders and creditors collect after liquidation (chap 7). So basically your left with pennies to the dollar. Chap 11 could be more difficult, but you usually get offered new stock under the new organization in exchange for the old which could also be worth pennies to the dollar .
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:12 PM   #112
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Well, not everything in bankruptcy, but whatever is left after bond holders and creditors collect after liquidation (chap 7). So basically your left with pennies to the dollar. Chap 11 could be more difficult, but you usually get offered new stock under the new organization in exchange for the old which could also be worth pennies to the dollar .
Agreed but many times there is nothing left over for stockholders. Unless creditors are paid in full, shareholders get nothing.
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:00 PM   #113
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If the stock sinks any lower, JHH may be worth more than AMD.

It's all the debt and Intel that could prevent a sale and lead to bankruptcy.
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:12 PM   #114
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What are the chances that nVIDIA buying out AMD or other companies namely Apple doing something along those lines?
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:21 PM   #115
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With AMD's assets under his control, a JHH-led AMD would have seriously challenged Intel. That was right around the time when Jensen was in his "open a can of whoop-ass" mood.

Whatever x86 CPU he would have released you can be assured it would have gulped down 300W and been so large that they actually had to MCM two separate wafers just to get the CPU under one IHS lid

But it would have made Intel fold its desktop CPU plans faster than you can say "Larrabee" and Intel would be the dominant ARM manufacturer right now (but locked into a rambus-only databus of course)
Sig-worthy, but too long. I lol'd.
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:28 PM   #116
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What are the chances that nVIDIA buying out AMD or other companies namely Apple doing something along those lines?
Almost zero. As long as x86 is part of AMD, a purchase is near pointless. As soon as AMD is 51% or higher controlled/owned, the license with Intel is null and has to be renegotiated. This is the stumbling block, AMD would have been purchased yesterday otherwise.
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Old 11-14-2012, 07:04 PM   #117
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What are the chances that nVIDIA buying out AMD or other companies namely Apple doing something along those lines?
Think how much it would be to put AMD back into the fight again:

1. Divert whatever relationships you have with Intel, because it would sour the day you bid for AMD

2. Shell a lot of money to cash out the old investors

3. Get into a huge legal spat with Intel to get a new x86 license

4. Bring in new management, because you would want your new company in the hands of professionals, not on the hands of that bunch of amateurs that manage AMD today

5. Shell out another load of money to build engineering teams, testing facilities, etc

6. Quit or roll AMD debt

7. Wait some 4-5 years until the products developed by the new teams reach the market.

8. Pray for those products be competitive against Intel

All that to get IP from a company that has a presence in a mature market and facing a competitor a lot bigger than you.

If you are really serious about this kind of money and effort you wouldn't buy AMD, you would start an ARM company today. If you are really keen into x86 you wouldn't buy AMD either, but would develop your x86 design and manufacture it through IBM, much like Transmeta did.

AMD as a company isn't interesting at all to anyone, but some of their patents should attract a lot of bidders once they go to the market.
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Old 11-14-2012, 07:26 PM   #118
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Almost zero. As long as x86 is part of AMD, a purchase is near pointless. As soon as AMD is 51% or higher controlled/owned, the license with Intel is null and has to be renegotiated. This is the stumbling block, AMD would have been purchased yesterday otherwise.
I guess buying some of their patent portfolio is the better target than buying the company as a whole. And your right, nVIDIA probably dont want to mess around with x86 either since that automatically makes intel your biggest competitor.

But other than their x86 leftovers/patents etc Im thinking others related to say GPUs and the like would be more of an interest for them.
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Old 11-14-2012, 08:23 PM   #119
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If I was Nvidia I would love to snap up AMD, sans x86 baggage of course. That would instantly give me near 100% marketshare in several graphics sectors. And of course the console contracts are icing on the cake. Nvidia could claim that it would not make them a monopoly because Intel has the majority graphics share overall.

An Nvidia/AMD merger makes a whole bunch of sense.
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Old 11-14-2012, 08:35 PM   #120
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If I was Nvidia I would love to snap up AMD, sans x86 baggage of course. That would instantly give me near 100% marketshare in several graphics sectors. And of course the console contracts are icing on the cake. Nvidia could claim that it would not make them a monopoly because Intel has the majority graphics share overall.

An Nvidia/AMD merger makes a whole bunch of sense.
Merger? Certainly no. AMD is a big black hole where no dollars escapes.
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Old 11-14-2012, 08:53 PM   #121
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Really? You don't work on a PC? I duno, my PC is the central hub of my existence (not really, but kinda). I mean, its what I plug any mobile stuff into for charging and data transfer, including cameras. I use it for excel, photoshop, solidworks, games, email, browsing, finding jobs sometimes, social networking and other things for sure. Some of these things can be done with a mobile device, but the PC can do them all and offers an insane ammount of flexibility. Having a keyboard, mouse and large monitor combined with a powerful machine with lots of storage space makes for a proper command and control center for my whole life. How I could ever do away with that in any capacity is beyond me. I will never be able to trade that for a mobile device, complete with fingers tripping over eachother trying to function on a tiny, virtual keyboard etc.
I do work on a PC, but a lot of what I do can be done on smaller devices. But don't ask me, ask the market. Look at the stagnation of PCs compared to the explosive growth in the ultra mobile to mobile markets. Somebody floated around an article a couple days ago that showed overall PC shipments to slip by 30 million by 2015. While smartphone tablet, and ultra mobile devices shoots through the roof.

This is why you are seeing Intel race to get into this market. If they lose this battle they will have a hard time winning the war against ARM. Microsoft is also shitting a brick as they are losing to iOS and Android on a massive scale within these markets.

It is a really fascinating thing to watch as a 3rd party. The old guard being replaced within a matter of years. And it is like they or nobody saw it coming.
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Old 11-14-2012, 09:00 PM   #122
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I do work on a PC, but a lot of what I do can be done on smaller devices. But don't ask me, ask the market. Look at the stagnation of PCs compared to the explosive growth in the ultra mobile to mobile markets. Somebody floated around an article a couple days ago that showed overall PC shipments to slip by 30 million by 2015. While smartphone tablet, and ultra mobile devices shoots through the roof.

This is why you are seeing Intel race to get into this market. If they lose this battle they will have a hard time winning the war against ARM. Microsoft is also shitting a brick as they are losing to iOS and Android on a massive scale within these markets.

It is a really fascinating thing to watch as a 3rd party. The old guard being replaced within a matter of years. And it is like they or nobody saw it coming.
Smartphones are mainly replacing old cellphones. Not replacing PCs. And smartphones carry a much higher premium than regular phones. Also smartphones needs replacement more often.

Its not for fun that the old cellphone giant Nokia is in so much trouble as it is.

PC shipments in 2015 is expected to be atleast 100mio more units than in 2012 acording to IDC.com.
Also in terms of shipment decline, go back and look on 2008 numbers. PC shipments also declined there, just to grow again. Its all due to economic situation, not smartphones or tablets.

Intel wants the smartphone market for 2 reasons. the ever required volume to feed the lower process nodes. And because the ASP on ARM based smartphones is so high, unlike the very small ASP on regular ARM based cellphones.

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Old 11-14-2012, 09:43 PM   #123
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Merger? Certainly no. AMD is a big black hole where no dollars escapes.
NVIDIA is going to wait until they colapse like 3DFX and then buy them off the clearance rack.
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Old 11-15-2012, 03:48 AM   #124
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NVIDIA is going to wait until they colapse like 3DFX and then buy them off the clearance rack.
Exactly. If they are interested. Then thats the way.
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Old 11-15-2012, 04:59 AM   #125
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If I was Nvidia I would love to snap up AMD, sans x86 baggage of course. That would instantly give me near 100% marketshare in several graphics sectors.
If AMD goes bankrupt Nvidia will have near 100% of the market without spending a penny, as no OEM manager worth his salt would want to design a line up with dGPU from a company that may not be there 6 months ahead. AIB partners will probably jump the ship too for the same reasons.

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And of course the console contracts are icing on the cake.
Those contracts are a race to the bottom. So I think there isn't too much money here, just a small stream of royalties revenues.
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