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Old 11-08-2012, 11:18 PM   #1
woolfe9999
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Default The polls were biased...in Romney's favor

I did some checking of the results against the polls. They turned out to be biased in favor of Romney to a moderate degree.

Here are the results against the RCP pre-election poll averages. I am using RCP because they used raw averages rather than adjusting pollsters based on past accuracy. Silver did somewhat better than this because his judgments on these weighting adjustments were pretty good. Silver also predicted the PV perfectly, in spite of very few polls showing Obama winning the PV by that margin. Still, even Silver's state by state poll averages were off in Romney's direction, because the polls were biased in that direction. Ohio appears to be the singular exception.

NC result: R2.2 RCP:R3.0, .8 Romney bias
Fla result: ~O+.6 RCP:R1.5, 2.1 Romney bias
Oh result: O+1.9 RCP: O2.9, 1.0 Obama bias
Va result: O3.0 RCP: O.3, 2.7 Romney bias
Co result: O4.7 RCP: O1.5, 3.2 Romney bias
PA result: O5.1 RCP: O3.8, 1.3 Romney bias
Iowa result: O5.7 RCP: O2.4, 3.3 Romney bias
NH result: O5.8 RCP: O2.0, 3.8 Romney bias
NV result: O5.8 RCP: O2.8, 3.0 Romney bias
WI result: O6.7 RCP: O4.2, 2.5 Romney bias
Minn result: O7.6 RCP O5.2, 2.1 Romney bias
Michigan result: O7.6 RCP: O4.0, 3.6 Romney bias

Popular Vote: Result: O+2.5, RCP: O+.7, 1.8 Romney bias

This was actually a moderately bad year for the accuracy of state by state polling. I suspect it will be overlooked because the aggregators were able to use the averages to predict the outcome in 49 or 50 of the states. But the margins were off in Romney's favor by an average of ~2.5 points. This qualifies as a systemic bias in the polling in favor of Romney. 11 of 12 state poll averages plus the PV being biased in one direction is not a coincidence. A few pollsters were pretty accurate, the ones which appeared to be O leaning outliers.

What is it with these pollsters, most of whom are MSM, and their pro-Romney bias?

Last edited by woolfe9999; 11-08-2012 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:17 AM   #2
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Romney polls were overestimating GOP turnout. They didn't think he would get less than McCain. They also over-considered independents in this race because a lot of indies are really disaffected GOPer who left party but still vote that way more often than not. The GOP indy vote is a bit skewed post Bush.
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Old 11-09-2012, 01:48 AM   #3
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The problem here is that you're using normal math. Have you considered using Republican math?
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Old 11-09-2012, 01:57 AM   #4
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RCP has a well know slight right-leaning bent. But point taken.

Btw, Gallup and Rasmussen were the 24th most accurate polling firms as found by Fordham. PPP ended up #1.
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:22 AM   #5
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Well they wanted to make it entertaining so people would watch the news and election event so they couldn't very well show the truth that Romney would get his ass kicked.
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Old 11-09-2012, 04:56 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by finglobes View Post
Romney polls were overestimating GOP turnout. They didn't think he would get less than McCain. They also over-considered independents in this race because a lot of indies are really disaffected GOPer who left party but still vote that way more often than not. The GOP indy vote is a bit skewed post Bush.
I think you have hit on a large part of it. I myself identified in many ways with more rational and intellectual conservative ideas, mainly the ideals embedded in the Constitution, that liberty is not trivial, that the citizen is a superior entity to his government in that the former rules the later in any form of democracy worthy of existence. That our rights are not subject to justification to government. That government is neither good nor evil, but it demonstrates a tendency towards the latter if not held accountable. It's purpose ought to be as a facilitator of responsible citizenship and activity. It is a dangerous double edged weapon which needs to be wielded judiciously, with forethought, and restraint, for wherever it strikes it leaves a mark that cannot wholly be undone.

These are still things I believe and I will be my own master, but those who taught me were few in days gone by, leaving mostly mean spirited petty people as likely to misuse government as not. I've not changed so much as grown, but my mentors are all dust.

Well that was a major digression, but many independents do seem to have some similar beliefs, but have been disaffected due to pettiness, abuse of power and bald partisanship over greater interests.
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Old 11-09-2012, 05:46 AM   #7
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I find it amazing that most of the polls were reasonably accurate. think about it the are calling people who meet these requirements:
Have a wired phone
Or opted into accepting polling calls
In some cases not on the do not call registry
Don't have caller ID or do not know how to use it
Enjoy answering calls from machines
Have time to answer the machine questions
Are at home & not pissed off at the survey interrupting them
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Old 11-09-2012, 06:01 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RabidMongoose View Post
The problem here is that you're using normal math. Have you considered using Republican math?
Republican math uses their proprietary "truthiness constant" in every single calculation and equation. Faith based math . . . now with the infinity of stupidity built right in!
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Old 11-09-2012, 06:06 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Newbian View Post
Well they wanted to make it entertaining so people would watch the news and election event so they couldn't very well show the truth that Romney would get his ass kicked.
This as well.
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