Which "real conservative" would have defeated Obama

[HomerJS]

The spin on Fox News and other right wing media seems to be Mitt was not conservative enough.

Ok so which of the remaining "real conservatives" would have defeated Obama?

[Pens1566]

"None of the above"

[dullard]

In a reelection year, it is very difficult to win. Good candidates won't waste their one opportunity. So you got a half dozen 2nd tier candidates to run. Not one of them had a chance.

Until Republicans run 1st tier candidates and cast a wider net, they'll keep losing.

[mshan]

Why do you think the field of Republican Primary contenders was so weak this cycle?

They knew the starting point in electoral college for Obama (2008) baseline was going to be very difficult to overcome and probably needed economy to be in, or at least feel like to most people, that we had double dipped into recession to make it true toss up or slight Republican lean.

But even them, Obama campaign looks like they put together an incredible turnout machine that even outdid 2008, and might have even been able to squeak by in electoral college in above scenario.

“Although Obama has historically awful numbers, it still requires a herculean effort to defeat him,” said Steven Law, the president of American Crossroads, a conservative group pledging to spend upward of $200 million on the race. “He will have the resources to contest and even give up huge chunks of territory — Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina — and still win."

To understand how Obama can maintain that edge — despite opinion polls showing that a majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of the job he is doing — you need to start with the fact that he won 365 electoral votes in 2008, the largest haul since President Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection.

Obama won three states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — that no Democrat had carried at the presidential level in at least two decades, and he scored victories in six other states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio) that George W. Bush had won in 2004. Those nine states will account for 112 electoral votes in 2012 and stand at the center of the fight for the presidency.

If Obama loses every one of them but holds on to the others he won, he will drop to 247 electoral votes and Republicans will win the White House. (The decennial reapportionment of congressional districts after the 2010 Census subtracts six electoral votes from states Obama won in 2008.)

But with the exception of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes, Obama is very much in the game in those states. In several, even Republicans acknowledge that he is favored.

In New Mexico (five electoral votes) and Iowa (six electoral votes), Obama has an edge.

New Mexico’s substantial Hispanic population — and Obama’s dominance among that community in 2008 — makes it a tough pickup for Republicans.

Iowa is more competitive — Republicans won the governorship there in 2010 — but Obama has long had a connection to the state that his advisers think is lasting and strong.

Assuming Obama can win those two states again — and hold the 19 other states he won that also went to the Democrat, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), in 2004 — he would be just 12 electoral votes shy of 270.

That means Obama would need to win only one of the following states to be reelected: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Virginia. (If he won Virginia and lost Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, his electoral vote total would stand at 271 — the same number Bush won in 2000.)



http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...LtM_story.html (article was written in November 2011)

[hal2kilo]

"I don't have facts to back this up" but it has to be Cain for a fair playing field.

[mshan]

"Consider two media markets, Denver and Wheeling (which is a market evenly split between Ohio and West Virginia). Mr. Kerry received roughly 50 percent of the votes in both markets. Based on the large gains for Democrats in 2008, Mr. Obama should have received about 57 percent of votes in both Denver and Wheeling. Denver and Wheeling, though, exhibit different racial attitudes. Denver had the fourth lowest racially charged search rate in the country. Mr. Obama won 57 percent of the vote there, just as predicted. Wheeling had the seventh highest racially charged search rate in the country. Mr. Obama won less than 48 percent of the Wheeling vote.

Add up the totals throughout the country, and racial animus cost Mr. Obama three to five percentage points of the popular vote. In other words, racial prejudice gave John McCain the equivalent of a home-state advantage nationally.

Yes, Mr. Obama also gained some votes because of his race. But in the general election this effect was comparatively minor. The vast majority of voters for whom Mr. Obama’s race was a positive were liberal, habitual voters who would have voted for any Democratic presidential candidate. Increased support and turnout from African-Americans added only about one percentage point to Mr. Obama’s totals."

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.c...we-ask-google/

Percentage of African-American turnout this cycle was same as 2008 (IIRC, 13% and 13%)

Latinos and The Youth surged percentage-wise for Obama in 2012 vs. 2008.

[Mursilis]

Originally Posted by HomerJS

The spin on Fox News and other right wing media seems to be Mitt was not conservative enough.

Ok so which of the remaining "real conservatives" would have defeated Obama?

I'm sorry, I can't take seriously any question asked by anyone stupid enough to watch Fox News.

[emperus]

I'm perfectly happy they probably won't learn their lesson. Let them contine to nominate the crazies of their party.

[Jaskalas]

Real conservatism must drop the concept of winning the next election.

It has to be about destroying and replacing the GOP. To change the entire structure, to drop wedge issues, to focus the public narrative on the role of government and states. To fight for state's rights.

None of those men would win, the GOP message will not win. To be a half-Dem is asinine. To 'move' to the middle trying to buy votes through corrupt use of taxpayer dollars is abhorrent. I won't tolerate it, and want to see the GOP burn before it becomes electable through that policy.

Drop kick the "electable" Neocons, and by doing so you drop the moderates. You draw a line in the sand and stand on American principles as they were founded. Not as the Democrats define them today. You don't beat them by joining them. You beat them by walking a new, true conservative / libertarian path.

You win tomorrow by making sacrifices today. That sacrifice must be the GOP.

[Todd33]

Huntsman was the only guy that had a chance if he had Romney's money.

[mshan]

I remember reading interesting comment about 2 party system in U. S., and how when one party is dying off, another one comes in under same banner and replaces it that way.

Civil war about direction of "Republican" Party seems to be at hand, and demographics don't seem favorable if they want to keep pushing more towards Tea Party.

[randomrogue]

They had no chance. They offered up nothing.

They need someone who is not insane and has real leadership qualities.

Once again, if ANY of the above were your boss what would you think? I'd fire them all.

[Nemesis 1]

Ilike the last choice . We shall see who hasn't a chance . Your victory will not be long enjoyed when you discover the price your going to pay . Lots and lots of snow this year in the northeast . I mean lots really really lots and lots . But thats nothing . 2013 Year of the comet . Most here should be aware of the comet that shows up late in 2013 , well One could call it the year of the comet . But meteors are what man shall endure lots and lots all over the world . Than the final judgement . It shall be the same as the last curse moses gave to Egypt except it will be all your children . Demons and repulsives alike . The big differance . All demons die but some repulsive live to tell the story and to go into the new age . That it from me I laid out your next 3 years for ya . Your still going to have quakes famine drought and SUPER Storms . But I had to tell ya whats coming . Now I promised to leave this forum If there was election . So now I keep my word . Have a nice life with your Messiah baby murdering asswipes. Pope needs to excummuncate ever catholic that is registered demon or he is the same liar as Romney /Obama. Which he is. If you vote for a law giver. his laws fall on you as a burden. Ever baby murdered is shared by all those who want this type of law . My GOD not being real and all.He sure does manifest himmself when testimony is given . lol all the way to your terriable end

[Todd33]

[Mursilis]

Originally Posted by Jaskalas

Real conservatism must drop the concept of winning the next election.

To 'move' to the middle trying to buy votes through corrupt use of taxpayer dollars is abhorrent.

If you stay committed to the second line, you can change the first line to "winning the next 10 elections". You don't get elected Santa Claus by refusing to provide the presents. You need only look at Europe.

[bfdd]

Straight up ina debate, Ron Paul would have made him look like an uninformed jackass who isn't deserving of the "constitutional lawyer" title people apply to him.

[Pens1566]

Originally Posted by Mursilis

I'm sorry, I can't take seriously any question asked by anyone stupid enough to watch Fox News.

If he's anything like me, he was watching it strictly to see the heads explode on live TV. Rove's rant about Ohio was worth it.

[bfdd]

Herman Cain would have won this election even though I think he's a silly guy and wouldn't have voted for him or rP

[Phokus]

Conservatives are going to get the wrong message and they're going to nominate some jackass far-right tea party moron in 2016 to go against the dem candidate.

[yllus]

Nobody listed - but I think Huntsman could have made a very good go of it.

[Incorruptible]

Ron Paul would have beat that pos obama. He could have saved America

[zinfamous]

I wouldn't say conservatives didn't stand a chance--but none of those in your list stood a chance for sure.

Problem is, the Republican party hates conservatives, this is why they no longer support them. Nominating Romney, with grating teeth and seething self-hate, was the party's best chance from the puppet show they put out there

[techs]

Originally Posted by Nemesis 1

Ilike the last choice . We shall see who hasn't a chance . Your victory will not be long enjoyed when you discover the price your going to pay . Lots and lots of snow this year in the northeast . I mean lots really really lots and lots . But thats nothing . 2013 Year of the comet . Most here should be aware of the comet that shows up late in 2013 , well One could call it the year of the comet . But meteors are what man shall endure lots and lots all over the world . Than the final judgement . It shall be the same as the last curse moses gave to Egypt except it will be all your children . Demons and repulsives alike . The big differance . All demons die but some repulsive live to tell the story and to go into the new age . That it from me I laid out your next 3 years for ya . Your still going to have quakes famine drought and SUPER Storms . But I had to tell ya whats coming . Now I promised to leave this forum If there was election . So now I keep my word . Have a nice life with your Messiah baby murdering asswipes. Pope needs to excummuncate ever catholic that is registered demon or he is the same liar as Romney /Obama. Which he is. If you vote for a law giver. his laws fall on you as a burden. Ever baby murdered is shared by all those who want this type of law . My GOD not being real and all.He sure does manifest himmself when testimony is given . lol all the way to your terriable end

The above is the reason Obama won. Would you want that crazy shit running the country?

[Mursilis]

Originally Posted by Pens1566

If he's anything like me, he was watching it strictly to see the heads explode on live TV. Rove's rant about Ohio was worth it.

Sounds rather childish. Fox isn't even good parody TV.

[jackschmittusa]

None of the above.

I agree that Huntsman would have been their best chance.

The party platform would have been an albatross to any candidate though.