|
|
 |
|
11-06-2012, 02:59 PM
|
#26
|
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,815
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlesKozierok
It's meaningless. Not only is it less predictive than looking at the state results that come out at the same time, it confuses people into drawing conclusions that are usually invalid.
And to top it off, what people call the "national popular vote" really isn't an accurate representation of what that would really be in an election conducted on that basis.
|
Ok if one candidate wins by 10 points in the national popular vote we can't draw any conclusions as to their likelihood of winning the Electoral College? How about 5 points?
For your statement to be true the answers to these two questions would have to be no. They aren't no.
The lower the national vote margin is the less correlation to EC vote winner there is, of course, but to say it is meaningless is fucking stupid.
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 03:04 PM
|
#27
|
|
Discussion Club Moderator
Elite Member
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 6,384
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
Ok if one candidate wins by 10 points in the national popular vote we can't draw any conclusions as to their likelihood of winning the Electoral College?
|
Have you ever even watched an election come in before? Any race that lop-sided will be called based on individual state results hours before even an approximation of the total PV numbers is known.
__________________
Webmaster, The PC Guide -- Relaunching in 2014 with all-new material!
Author, The TCP/IP Guide (getting a bit old but still lots of good free info)
"The apparent accuracy of a Wikipedia article is inversely proportional to
the depth of the reader's knowledge of the topic." -- Kozierok's First Law
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 03:14 PM
|
#28
|
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,815
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlesKozierok
Have you ever even watched an election come in before? Any race that lop-sided will be called based on individual state results hours before even an approximation of the total PV numbers is known.
|
Yeah, if the national polls were saying 10 point win (nationally) one way or the other you know that person will win the EC without looking at a single state poll. ie. the national polls are not meaningless.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 04:20 PM
|
#29
|
|
Discussion Club Moderator
Elite Member
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 6,384
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
Yeah, if the national polls were saying 10 point win (nationally) one way or the other ...
|
... the state polls would be indicating a win so strongly that the national poll would be unnecessary.
And we were talking about the returns, not the polls.
__________________
Webmaster, The PC Guide -- Relaunching in 2014 with all-new material!
Author, The TCP/IP Guide (getting a bit old but still lots of good free info)
"The apparent accuracy of a Wikipedia article is inversely proportional to
the depth of the reader's knowledge of the topic." -- Kozierok's First Law
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 04:21 PM
|
#30
|
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,815
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlesKozierok
... the state polls would be indicating a win so strongly that the national poll would be unnecessary.
And we were talking about the returns, not the polls.
|
Oh shit, sorry. Carry on.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 10:23 PM
|
#31
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 5,353
|
Fox News now admitting all the polls showing advantage to Obama were right. Waiting for final numbers but not looking good for Rassmussen
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 10:24 PM
|
#32
|
|
Discussion Club Moderator
Elite Member
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 6,384
|
I hope this election FINALLY puts Rasmussen out to pasture where he belongs.
__________________
Webmaster, The PC Guide -- Relaunching in 2014 with all-new material!
Author, The TCP/IP Guide (getting a bit old but still lots of good free info)
"The apparent accuracy of a Wikipedia article is inversely proportional to
the depth of the reader's knowledge of the topic." -- Kozierok's First Law
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 10:24 PM
|
#33
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: sacramento
Posts: 8,721
|
Nate Silver owns.
__________________
"It is good to keep in mind that the screw that tightens the mechanism is also the one that loosens it." - From a Japanese air rifle manual, circa 1971
"Being happy doesn't mean that everything is perfect. It means that you have decided to look beyond the imperfections" - unknown
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 10:24 PM
|
#34
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 20,202
|
Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 10:26 PM
|
#35
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: In Your Frontal Lobe
Posts: 20,155
|
Nate's model > *, that is all. Fivethirtyeight for the MF win.
__________________
R.I.P. Acemcmac
-----------
United we stand, divided we fall
.HEAT.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:45 PM
|
#36
|
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 821
|
So, what are the odds Nate Silver will extend to Rasmussen the same offer Colbert did to Trump?
__________________
"Politics is weird. And creepy. And now I know lacks even the loosest attachment to anything like reality."
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:47 PM
|
#37
|
|
Platinum Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 2,378
|
Just waiting for the election results to be unskewed...
Last edited by MomentsofSanity; 11-07-2012 at 12:11 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:51 PM
|
#38
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Panama City, FL
Posts: 27,441
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phokus
Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.
|
Exactly - he called the entire race, and will usher in a new era of polling analysis for the next set of elections. Every network will be scrambling to hire more statisticians to compile voting trends......
__________________
ryanbloedow.com | "The biggest threat to world peace is intolerance cloaked in religion."
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:53 PM
|
#39
|
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,815
|
Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:54 PM
|
#40
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 20,202
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.
|
Hahahahaha bow down before him bitch.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:54 PM
|
#41
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,865
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phokus
Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.
|
Lol poor Joe Scarborough. guess he is going to need some Johnny Walker Blue label to get over it.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:55 PM
|
#42
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,865
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.
|
A bean counter who actually knows how to count beans is better than a partisan fvck.
|
|
|
|
|
11-06-2012, 11:58 PM
|
#43
|
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,815
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by blankslate
A bean counter who actually knows how to count beans is better than a partisan fvck.
|
A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:01 AM
|
#44
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 8,060
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.
|
Yet he's a bean counter who owned the shit out of you.
lol.
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:01 AM
|
#45
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,865
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.
|
Translation: waaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:02 AM
|
#46
|
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 821
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.
|
Take a fucking cue from Romney and be gracious in defeat. Being a snippy little bitch about it is precisely the wrong way to act when you are shown incorrect. In particular because when you say shit like a seventh grader could have done what Silver did, the question becomes how did you, presumably an adult, fuck it up so badly?
Accept that Nate Silver is skilled at parsing polls and getting to the heart of what they say and move on.
__________________
"Politics is weird. And creepy. And now I know lacks even the loosest attachment to anything like reality."
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:02 AM
|
#47
|
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 8,060
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by buckshot24
A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.
|
Yes, give him credit for understanding polls and statistics. Then look within yourself and accept your inner-layman.
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:08 AM
|
#48
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Raleigh, NC
Posts: 13,887
|
votamatic.org looks like they will hit it right on the nose. They had 332 to 206.
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:13 AM
|
#49
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Panama City, FL
Posts: 27,441
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by trmiv
votamatic.org looks like they will hit it right on the nose. They had 332 to 206.
|
Looking at Nate Silver's "State-by-State probabilities", he called every state 100% correct. Hell - even down to Florida being a very slight lead for Obama.
__________________
ryanbloedow.com | "The biggest threat to world peace is intolerance cloaked in religion."
|
|
|
|
|
11-07-2012, 12:15 AM
|
#50
|
|
Lifer
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Raleigh, NC
Posts: 13,887
|
Didn't Nate Silver have a final prediction on the site at one point? I could swear I saw one earlier today but I can't find it. I thought he did have 332 to 206 also.
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:38 AM.
|
