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Old 11-04-2012, 09:55 PM   #1301
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Originally Posted by buckshot24 View Post
I probably read that blog more than you. I'm talking about that poll.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/im...1/04/top16.pdf
Yes and on CNN it also claims the race is tied. It is like Ignoring the fact that in a car race one guy is two laps ahead of the other but saying the race is tied because both cars have equally loud engines.

The race is not tied up. Tied up indicates an equal standing and there isn't one. National polling is irrelevant. I know you have been told this and you know it but since you insist on still touting its relevance you will just have to see why, for real, on Tuesday.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:01 PM   #1302
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Yes and on CNN it also claims the race is tied. It is like Ignoring the fact that in a car race one guy is two laps ahead of the other but saying the race is tied because both cars have equally loud engines.

The race is not tied up. Tied up indicates an equal standing and there isn't one. National polling is irrelevant. I know you have been told this and you know it but since you insist on still touting its relevance you will just have to see why, for real, on Tuesday.
Sigh...

Who the fuck was saying anything about the state of the race based upon that poll? -over the line, sorry-. Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups, and you're fucking up.

I'm talking about the internals of that poll. They have 41% Democrats and 30% Republicans and THEY have the two candidates tied IN THEIR FUCKING POLL. That's the only significance it has to me. If you have something to say about that, please do.

Last edited by buckshot24; 11-04-2012 at 10:31 PM.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:08 PM   #1303
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So apparently republicans and the Koch brothers are desparate to make things look better for them. American Future Fund was part of a poll in Minnesota that shows Romney up by one. Thing is AFF is a strongly republican organization. Somebody is flailing for headlines.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:25 PM   #1304
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PPP is a poll owned by the Daily Kos should we disregard their results?
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:36 PM   #1305
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PPP is a poll owned by the Daily Kos should we disregard their results?
No, they get averaged together with Rasmussen and everyone else. Although, Silver actually does give "house effects" to each pollster and uses that to "unskew" the polls: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...polling-firms/
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:38 PM   #1306
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I think today's Doonesbury sums up quite well what's going through the minds of a lot of people:
http://doonesbury.slate.com/
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:40 PM   #1307
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Dick Morris is on Greta right now saying Romney will get 325 including PA which 538 has a 97% change of romney NOT getting. I don't believe Morris believes this so what does he gain by lying? Oh and popular vote by more than 5 percent.
It keeps him on the air with Fox News. That's what he gains.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:42 PM   #1308
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No, they get averaged together with Rasmussen and everyone else. Although, Silver actually does give "house effects" to each pollster and uses that to "unskew" the polls: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...polling-firms/
I know.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:42 PM   #1309
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PPP is a poll owned by the Daily Kos should we disregard their results?
I'm saying take the survey with a gigantic grain of salt. PPP has a known D lean. This poll when digging behind who funded is ridiculously Republican. I mean that in a way that this poll could practically be funded by the RNC.
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:15 PM   #1310
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Just released today, PPP has Obama up 4 in Virginia and up 5 in Ohio.

Poll after poll showing showing the same thing.
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:41 PM   #1311
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Obama leads; Romney with chance in electoral race
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:00 AM   #1312
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Reality creeping in as state and national polls align: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ter-alignment/

Repubs already talking about cooperation with Obama in 2nd term (or potential lack thereof) WRT tax increases on the wealthy: http://www.politico.com/news/stories...297.html?hp=l3

Any last minute predictions? Senate/House/POTUS?
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:11 AM   #1313
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My prediction is that this election will finally validate Silver as a God amongst mere pollsters.

Lord knows this wasn't an easy election to predict, with big October swings and Romney leading for weeks in the national polls.

But 48 hours from election day, both the state polls and national polls are falling in line with Silver's predictions (that he made in advance of the current trends).

Last edited by jpeyton; 11-05-2012 at 12:15 AM.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:39 AM   #1314
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This has definitely not been an easy election to predict, and if Obama wins we will likely see Nate Silver rise above the fray as the undisputed king of election forecasting.

My predictions all along have been the following:

-Obama wins reelection
-Dems pickup a few more Senate seats and retain majority
-Dems pickup a few more House seats, Republicans retain majority

All in all a net loss for the GOP. Hopefully this sends a strong signal to the GOP to stop their obstructionist ways and get back to governance, but you never know. They may just want to run their party dead into the ground.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:48 AM   #1315
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Originally Posted by OneOfTheseDays View Post
This has definitely not been an easy election to predict, and if Obama wins we will likely see Nate Silver rise above the fray as the undisputed king of election forecasting.

My predictions all along have been the following:

-Obama wins reelection
-Dems pickup a few more Senate seats and retain majority
-Dems pickup a few more House seats, Republicans retain majority

All in all a net loss for the GOP. Hopefully this sends a strong signal to the GOP to stop their obstructionist ways and get back to governance, but you never know. They may just want to run their party dead into the ground.
considering how trash both parties are right now, I wouldn't mind if one of them dies so the other can die as well
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:54 AM   #1316
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Originally Posted by OneOfTheseDays View Post
This has definitely not been an easy election to predict, and if Obama wins we will likely see Nate Silver rise above the fray as the undisputed king of election forecasting.

My predictions all along have been the following:

-Obama wins reelection
-Dems pickup a few more Senate seats and retain majority
-Dems pickup a few more House seats, Republicans retain majority

All in all a net loss for the GOP. Hopefully this sends a strong signal to the GOP to stop their obstructionist ways and get back to governance, but you never know. They may just want to run their party dead into the ground.
I think Nate's only really special because he uses statistics to get a result and then publicly stands behind that result. He's also not a journalist so he doesn't have to look impartial when there is a clear but not huge favorite. Asking a journalist who's gong to win an election when the candidates are less than 10 points apart was, and still is, a fairly stupid question.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:04 AM   #1317
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Repubs already talking about cooperation with Obama in 2nd term (or potential lack thereof) WRT tax increases on the wealthy: http://www.politico.com/news/stories...297.html?hp=l3
Ram it through like Obamacare.

No need to worry about re-election in 2016. Shove those millionaire tax breaks up the GOP's asses.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:08 AM   #1318
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I think Nate's only really special because he uses statistics to get a result and then publicly stands behind that result. He's also not a journalist so he doesn't have to look impartial when there is a clear but not huge favorite. Asking a journalist who's gong to win an election when the candidates are less than 10 points apart was, and still is, a fairly stupid question.
If Silver is vindicated, journalists should face hard questions as to their coverage. As the race stands Obama is clearly the favorite by any measurable metric but only a few pundits have been willing to say it. The media has felt obligated to call it a toss-up because of the usual 'he said she said' approach where they think presenting both sides evenly means they are doing they're job.

The media needs to serve to public again rather than just being the filter through which both sides spew their rhetoric, if only in equal amounts.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:10 AM   #1319
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Ram it through like Obamacare.

No need to worry about re-election in 2016. Shove those millionaire tax breaks up the GOP's asses.
I liked that article a lot, I hope Obama comes out playing hardball this time....we'll see
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:30 AM   #1320
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If Silver is vindicated, journalists should face hard questions as to their coverage. As the race stands Obama is clearly the favorite by any measurable metric but only a few pundits have been willing to say it. The media has felt obligated to call it a toss-up because of the usual 'he said she said' approach where they think presenting both sides evenly means they are doing they're job.

The media needs to serve to public again rather than just being the filter through which both sides spew their rhetoric, if only in equal amounts.
You have to remember that a fair amount of media rhetoric and punditry is designed to incite viewership, not provide a clear picture of the truth.

Fox News is arguably the best news network if you're ranking them on their ability to engage and monetize their base. CNN and the rest do it to a lesser degree, but they would rather have you glued to your TV set watching "toss-up" election night coverage than eating dinner at the table with Obama as the 9:1 favorite.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:33 AM   #1321
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You have to remember that a fair amount of media rhetoric and punditry is designed to incite viewership, not provide a clear picture of the truth.

Fox News is arguably the best news network if you're ranking them on their ability to engage and monetize their base. CNN and the rest do it to a lesser degree, but they would rather have you glued to your TV set watching a "toss-up" election than eating dinner at the table with Obama as the 9:1 favorite.
I agree this is partly the reason for the tendency to call it a 'toss-up,' I maintain the other reason is that lazy journalism prevails and that is taking two opposing views and restating them with equal weight.

I don't know if we've had an election that will "surprise" the mainstream more than this one, though. I mean if Obama gets 303 electoral votes, how are pundits going to justify their calling it a toss-up before election day, when all signs pointed to his victory being exactly that?
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:34 AM   #1322
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If Silver is vindicated, journalists should face hard questions as to their coverage. As the race stands Obama is clearly the favorite by any measurable metric but only a few pundits have been willing to say it. The media has felt obligated to call it a toss-up because of the usual 'he said she said' approach where they think presenting both sides evenly means they are doing they're job.

The media needs to serve to public again rather than just being the filter through which both sides spew their rhetoric, if only in equal amounts.
I do feel bad for journalists in general. They know pretty much what Silver knows but aren't really allowed to say it. There is definitely a false equivalency bias but I don't blame them too much for having that when talking about who's going to win an election.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:37 AM   #1323
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I agree this is partly the reason for the tendency to call it a 'toss-up,' I maintain the other reason is that lazy journalism prevails and that is taking two opposing views and restating them with equal weight.

I don't know if we've had an election that will "surprise" the mainstream more than this one, though. I mean if Obama gets 303 electoral votes, how are pundits going to justify their calling it a toss-up before election day, when all signs pointed to his victory being exactly that?
They'll say that Sandy gave Obama an opportunity to generate a late, but significant edge in the final week of the election.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:42 AM   #1324
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According to Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, whose models are based on current state by state polling after running 2.3 quadrillion possible outcomes, Obama's chances of reelection are now 97%
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:57 AM   #1325
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According to Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, whose models are based on current state by state polling after running 2.3 quadrillion possible outcomes, Obama's chances of reelection are now 97%
Goddamn it.

I'd gladly watch this country go down the shitter just to put Fox News and the conservatards here in the position where they have to apologize for President Romney for the next 4 years. 4 more years of their hate-filled mindless complaining is going to be too much to bear.
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