Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[you2]

…and Russia loses another big plane. This time an Il-76.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767506907994972475

Where is russia announcement that the 15 people on board were ukraine pow ?

 

[feralkid]

As always.

 

[K1052]

America: Ok Poland, how many missiles would you like to buy?

Poland: Yes.

America: ....ok

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767632343328608305

 

[fskimospy]

America: Ok Poland, how many missiles would you like to buy?

Poland: Yes.

America: ....ok

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767632343328608305

Russia has been increasingly using the same rhetoric about the Balkans and Poland as it did about Ukraine. At least Ukraine served as a wake up call for them to prepare for the next 'liberation' attempt by Russia.

 

[K1052]

Russia has been increasingly using the same rhetoric about the Balkans and Poland as it did about Ukraine. At least Ukraine served as a wake up call for them to prepare for the next 'liberation' attempt by Russia.

They certainly don't want to have to go hat in hand to the Germans to ask for deep strike capability in the event of Russian aggression and instead will be dropping JASSMs on St. Petersburg.

 

[Dave_5k]

They certainly don't want to have to go hat in hand to the Germans to ask for deep strike capability in the event of Russian aggression and instead will be dropping JASSMs on St. Petersburg.

Appears the new AGM-158B-2 variant of the JASSM is quite a monster, reported "official" range of 1200 miles, with a 2000lb warhead. Even launching from the west side of Poland, that can hit Moscow as easily as St Pete. However, not sure what platforms Poland has that can launch that beast, I would have thought that likely required a bomber?

 

[K1052]

Appears the new AGM-158B-2 variant of the JASSM is quite a monster, reported "official" range of 1200 miles, with a 2000lb warhead. Even launching from the west side of Poland, that can hit Moscow as easily as St Pete. However, not sure what platforms Poland has that can launch that beast, I would have thought that likely required a bomber?

F-16s can carry and F-35s when they receive them too. Maybe even the FA-50s they ordered from South Korea with some integration work.

 

[balloonshark]

Ukroshaheds successfully strike Russian oil refinery.

I love these type of attacks. Death by a thousand cuts.

 

[Zor Prime]

Think this is more video of that IL76 going down:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767496886246645868

What caught my attention the most is the nice houses. lol

 

[misuspita]

Russia has been increasingly using the same rhetoric about the Balkans and Poland as it did about Ukraine. At least Ukraine served as a wake up call for them to prepare for the next 'liberation' attempt by Russia.

If Ukraine would have happened as it was supposed to be, 3 days war, you bet your a$$ that the Baltics, Romania, Moldova and Poland would have had been attacked right about now

 

[RnR_au]

If Ukraine would have happened as it was supposed to be, 3 days war, you bet your a$$ that the Baltics, Romania, Moldova and Poland would have had been attacked right about now

I don't think so. Attacking any NATO country is just rhetoric done post-take-Kyiv-in-3-days. Its like changing the Overton window. Putin and his team do not want to be bogged down in long term warfare, like attacking Poland and the Baltics would have achieved.

They are bullies and want to do the absolute minimum for the max gain. All out war is always risky stuff. Billionaires don't like such risks.

 

[kage69]

Wooot wooot


Yup, sounds like Ukraine might finally get the rest of those older M39s and M48s as part of the current $300million supplement for Ukraine. Game changer? Of course not, but a gigantic help, especially now. Quite a stick, one that will wipe out a lot of orcs.

"The US will send Kyiv additional Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, missiles, which are an older version of the long-range ATACMS, according to one of the officials. The missiles travel 100 miles and carry warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets. The officials were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement."



Let's hope they prioritize glide bomb delivery. Maybe allow for Ukrainian AD to move up more, allow more shots at the Russian aircraft dropping them. I'm not expecting F-16s to help much there, maybe a little but that's probably too risky of a mission for their small numbers. MANPADs can't handle glide bombs. Phalanx C-RAM could do it I bet, but it would have to be too close to the front in order to be effective. Pity. Russian glide bombs are bulky, I'm sure that's an easier RCS to handle than Western analogs.

May this current round of American weapon recyclying in Ukraine be as fruitful as the last time we gave them some ATACMS. Have fun with that Yuri.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I don't think so. Attacking any NATO country is just rhetoric done post-take-Kyiv-in-3-days. Its like changing the Overton window. Putin and his team do not want to be bogged down in long term warfare, like attacking Poland and the Baltics would have achieved.

They are bullies and want to do the absolute minimum for the max gain. All out war is always risky stuff. Billionaires don't like such risks.

If they had been successful with Ukraine, they would have a river of fresh bodies to use for a multi million man invasion force. At absolute bare minimum they would have gone for the non-NATO border states around Russia and Ukraine. If they had success there, you probably would have seen a NATO country invaded (as idiotic as that would have been).

 

[K1052]

Oil refinery at Ryazan attacked by Ukrainian drones. Looks like they aimed for the fractioning towers which is good.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767785739352170937

 

[K1052]

If they had been successful with Ukraine, they would have a river of fresh bodies to use for a multi million man invasion force. At absolute bare minimum they would have gone for the non-NATO border states around Russia and Ukraine. If they had success there, you probably would have seen a NATO country invaded (as idiotic as that would have been).

Moldova certainly would have been next.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Supposedly Gerasimov is getting fired…or he is already dead.

 

[Pens1566]

He should avoid windows.

 

[Jaskalas]

I don't think so. Attacking any NATO country is just rhetoric done post-take-Kyiv-in-3-days.

People here literally argued Russia would not attack Ukraine.

And of course the goal is to attack NATO. A victory in Ukraine would give Russia the land and resources it needs. Millions more people meat for their attack waves. To make good on their constant vow to restore the Russian Empire and USSR. Any land a Russian boot has ever touched is theirs, they keep claiming this. Russia will not rest until they share a border with France, and they will only stop there due to nuclear weapons.

Part of achieving this goal is Donald Trump. If the US betrays the Alliance, we could easily flip Turkey for Russia. A war over the Baltics would be perfect for Russia to stretch our strike capability. Unless Finland wants to march to Saint Petersburg, they're going to sit their asses at home and watch Russia take their neighbors. Just as we did with Ukraine. We have a proven track record of letting Russia kill people and get away with it. Otherwise there would be a god damn blockade in place.

We let them get away with one, we are sure as hell going to allow more. They will attack NATO because they vow to do this. Because they want to call our bluff against a nuclear power, knowing we are too chicken shit to risk WW3, as we keep proving to them time and again. And they have a strategic plan involving a chaotic and divided NATO. With 10s of millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine and destabilizing Europe. Hungary is a prime example of that weakness.

Unless Europe moves into a war time economy for the production of war supplies, all Putin needs is the US to flip and stage is set. If Europe does not prepare for war, Europe will be devoured by it.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Unless Europe moves into a war time economy for the production of war supplies, all Putin needs is the US to flip and stage is set. If Europe does not prepare for war, Europe will be devoured by it.

The best thing that could have happened to everyone was for Europe and the US to shift to a wartime economy back in JAN2022.

 

[fskimospy]

The best thing that could have happened to everyone was for Europe and the US to shift to a wartime economy back in JAN2022.

That wasn't going to happen for the US and frankly we don't need to. Our current stocks and production are more than sufficient to destroy Russia's army, we have just chosen not to do it.

If I'm a country with a decently advanced economy right now (GERMANY) I'm getting myself nuclear weapons. It's the only real security there is because you don't need to rely on anyone else.

 

[cytg111]

Its actually the one thing I keep hearing across Europe... We are gearing up for war time.

But if the US flips, all the good it's gonna do us.

 

[K1052]

That wasn't going to happen for the US and frankly we don't need to. Our current stocks and production are more than sufficient to destroy Russia's army, we have just chosen not to do it.

If I'm a country with a decently advanced economy right now (GERMANY) I'm getting myself nuclear weapons. It's the only real security there is because you don't need to rely on anyone else.

Or they will be soon thanks to investment. The Ukraine war opened a lot of eyes over here about shortfalls in conventional weapons production capacity. We are moving to remedy this.

Taiwan and South Korea surely have contingency plans for crash nuclear programs which I would not be surprised if were dusted off this year.

 

[cytg111]

That wasn't going to happen for the US and frankly we don't need to. Our current stocks and production are more than sufficient to destroy Russia's army, we have just chosen not to do it.

If I'm a country with a decently advanced economy right now (GERMANY) I'm getting myself nuclear weapons. It's the only real security there is because you don't need to rely on anyone else.

Well, that works for the first 10 years perhaps, but when you're surrounded geographically and no obvious trade routes ... well you'd essentially be swapping places with where Russia is now. Together we stand divided we fall.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

That wasn't going to happen for the US and frankly we don't need to. Our current stocks and production are more than sufficient to destroy Russia's army, we have just chosen not to do it.

If I'm a country with a decently advanced economy right now (GERMANY) I'm getting myself nuclear weapons. It's the only real security there is because you don't need to rely on anyone else.

Disagree, the US in an immediate wartime, flooding Ukraine with stocks and potentially backfilling within months rather than years might have saved Mariupol and prevented the current front entirely. We might be establishing a DMZ today 30km deep on the RU side instead of trench fighting a hundred km from the border.

We've got plenty of our weapons to destroy Russia's army, but not artillery which is what Ukraine can, and was able to work with, at the start of the war.

 

[fskimospy]

Well, that works for the first 10 years perhaps, but when you're surrounded geographically and no obvious trade routes ... well you'd essentially be swapping places with where Russia is now. Together we stand divided we fall.

I don't mean isolationism/autarky, just that you don't need to rely on anyone else for national security.